The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-14]

334/12879 (2.59% sold) [+91 tickets] [83 showings]

 

1.34677x GBA after two day of pre-sales                 [6.06m] [UNADJ FOR ATP HIKES SINCE 2021]

0.68163x FB3 after two day of pre-sales                  [4.09m]

1.36885x Scream VI after two day of pre-sales       [7.80m] [UNADJ FOR ATP DIFF]

0.61397x TLM after two day of pre-sales                 [6.32m]

0.26258x AtSV after two day of pre-sales               [4.56m]

0.39620x FNAF after two day of pre-sales              [4.08m]

0.53526x The Marvels after two day of pre-sales   [???m]

 

====

 

Yeeeaaah, I dunno.  Don't love that it fell against the FB3 comp (even while noting that over-performed locally).

 

Gonna do a T-x Q&D tomorrow for ALL comps and see how they shift.  Almost all of them will get a hatchet took to them, though some not as bad as it might seem. 

 

Still mostly more curious about the daily pace since we're relatively close to release than the overall comps that get spat out.  FWIW, GBA did start at T-17 and FB3 at T-16, so those comps won't be changed as much as the others.  Just have to see how it goes.

 

Quick and Dirty The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes Sacramento Report [T-13]

385/12539 (3.07% sold) [+51 tickets] [82 showings]

 

1.05769x GBA at T-13                 [4.76m] [UNADJ FOR ATP HIKES SINCE 2021]

0.54765x FB3 at T-13                 [3.29m]

0.54688x Scream VI at T-13       [3.12m] [UNADJ FOR ATP DIFF]

0.23707x TLM at T-13                 [2.44m]

0.18608x AtSV at T-13               [3.23m]

0.19395x FNAF at T-13              [2.00m]

0.32655x The Marvels at T-13   [???m]

 

---

 

As one can see, most of these are now completely unsuitable thanks to wildly disparate length in pre-sale windows.  Thanks to lingering concerns about FB3 over-performing locally (and thus depressing the comp), GBA might be the best comp so far.

 

Either way, pace isn't enough for me to make daily updates here, so my next update will be on Sunday Night.  Have to see how much various comps have moved by then and how much the pace is picking up to get a sense of where it might be headed locally.

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	197	27321	28853	1532	5.31%

 

Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	1156
Total Seats Sold Today	87

 

T-7 Comps:

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	57.75		67	2653		0/101	13315/15968	16.61%		6409	23.90%		6.20m
GOTG3	33.08		222	4631		0/207	25352/29983	15.45%		10750	14.25%		5.79m
TLM	63.25		170	2422		0/168	21392/23814	10.17%		6561	23.35%		6.52m
AtSV	50.58		263	3029		0/140	19113/22142	13.68%		9744	15.72%		8.78m
Flash	88.35		74	1734		0/178	23414/25148	6.90%		5327	28.76%		8.57m
Indy 5	85.02		92	1802		0/134	18905/20707	8.70%		4767	32.14%		6.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     226/8665  [2.61% sold]
Matinee:    59/2546  [2.32% | 4.08% of all tickets sold]
3D:            96/5008  [1.92% | 6.64% of all tickets sold]

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	200	27291	28892	1601	5.54%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	3
Total Net Seats Added Today	39
Total Seats Sold Today	69

 

T-6 Comps:

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	58.22		97	2750		0/101	13218/15968	17.22%		6409	24.98%		6.25m
GOTG3	32.36		317	4948		0/226	26866/31814	15.55%		10750	14.89%		5.66m
TLM	62.22		151	2573		0/173	21977/24550	10.48%		6561	24.40%		6.41m
AtSV	48.59		266	3295		0/142	19179/22474	14.66%		9744	16.43%		8.44m
Flash	84.80		154	1888		0/178	23257/25145	7.51%		5327	30.05%		8.23m
Indy 5	85.39		73	1875		0/134	18832/20707	9.05%		4767	33.59%		6.15m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     269/8665  [3.10% sold]
Matinee:    67/2546  [2.63% | 4.18% of all tickets sold]
3D:            115/4957  [2.32% | 7.18% of all tickets sold]

[Hilts]

On 11/2/2023 at 10:27 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.69
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-11	21	173	29	657	32,650	2.01%	4.62%
T-10	21	171	33	690	31,973	2.16%	5.02%
T-9	25	188	36	726	33,709	2.15%	5.22%
T-8	25	188	50	776	33,709	2.30%	6.89%
T-7	25	188	41	817	33,709	2.42%	5.28%
MTC1	8	59	+12	392	10,485	3.74%	3.16%
MTC2	4	48	+2	112	8,204	1.37%	1.82%
MTC3	3	39	+26	240	8,077	2.97%	12.15%
Other	10	42	+1	73	6,943	1.05%	1.39%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.717x	=	$5.16m
Barbie					0.242x	=	$5.38m
Oppenheimer					0.513x	=	$5.38m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.918x	=	$8.08m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.409x	=	$7.89m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.531x	=	$5.46m

 

Matinee: 2.94%

3D: 9.42%

PLF: 59.85%

 

Comp average: $6.23m

 

Just a reminder that I do not have the best comps here. Until I build up a few more in my arsenal with longer pre-sale windows unfortunately stuck with these. Barbenheimer is bringing the average down and MI/TMNT are Discount Tues releases with EA/Sneaks so not reliable (although they look reasonable for now).

 

That leaves Indy trending up and FNAF trending down. If you adjust FNAF up for ATP diff then I am not too far off what others are seeing. Need to see a strengthening tomorrow otherwise I can already say it will not look good on my next update.

 

The Marvels							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$16.62
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-10	21	171	33	690	31,973	2.16%	5.02%
T-9	25	188	36	726	33,709	2.15%	5.22%
T-8	25	188	50	776	33,709	2.30%	6.89%
T-7	25	188	41	817	33,709	2.42%	5.28%
T-6	25	193	83	900	34,228	2.63%	10.16%
MTC1	8	59	+42	434	10,485	4.14%	10.71%
MTC2	4	48	+17	129	8,204	1.57%	15.18%
MTC3	3	39	+16	256	8,077	3.17%	6.67%
Other	10	47	+8	81	7,462	1.09%	10.96%
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny					0.721x	=	$5.19m
Barbie					0.235x	=	$5.23m
Oppenheimer					0.524x	=	$5.50m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One					0.923x	=	$8.12m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					1.402x	=	$7.85m
Five Nights at Freddy's					0.528x	=	$5.44m

 

Matinee: 3.44%

3D: 9.89%

PLF: 58.78%

 

Comp average: $6.22m

 

Took a step up in line with all the other comps so not much change compared with previous day.

[Hilts]

On 11/2/2023 at 10:38 PM, Hilts said:

 

Trolls Band Together							OK
Saturday - 2pm - Early Access Screenings						ATP	$10.08
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-6	11	11	43	181	1,953	9.27%	31.16%
T-5	11	11	25	206	1,953	10.55%	13.81%
T-4	11	11	31	237	1,953	12.14%	15.05%
T-3	11	11	53	290	1,953	14.85%	22.36%
T-2	11	11	77	363	1,953	18.59%	25.17%
MTC1	3	3	+12	122	604	20.20%	10.91%
MTC2	2	2	+15	61	239	25.52%	32.61%
MTC3	3	3	+39	139	634	21.92%	39.00%
Other	3	3	+11	41	476	8.61%	36.67%
Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$11.65
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-18	20	87	0	36	12,669	0.28%	0.00%
T-17	20	87	4	40	12,669	0.32%	11.11%
T-16	20	87	0	40	12,669	0.32%	0.00%
T-15	20	87	9	49	12,669	0.39%	22.50%
T-14	20	87	4	53	12,669	0.42%	8.16%
MTC1	7	25	+4	18	2,813	0.64%	28.57%
MTC2	4	27	0	9	4,460	0.20%	0.00%
MTC3	3	12	0	14	2,536	0.55%	0.00%
Other	6	23	0	12	2,860	0.42%	0.00%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.602x	=	$1.87m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.495x	=	$1.91m

 

Matinee: 30.19%

3D: 11.32%

 

EA boomin. Would estimate ~$700k for early shows on top of the above based on some EA only comps.

 

Trolls Band Together							OK
Saturday - 2pm - Early Access Screenings						ATP	$10.32
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-5	11	11	25	206	1,953	10.55%	13.81%
T-4	11	11	31	237	1,953	12.14%	15.05%
T-3	11	11	53	290	1,953	14.85%	22.36%
T-2	11	11	77	363	1,953	18.59%	25.17%
T-1	11	12	149	512	2,027	25.26%	41.05%
MTC1	3	4	+24	146	678	21.53%	19.67%
MTC2	2	2	+10	71	239	29.71%	16.39%
MTC3	3	3	+64	203	634	32.02%	46.04%
Other	3	3	+51	92	476	19.33%	124.39%
Thursday - showings starting 2pm						ATP	$12.03
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-17	20	87	4	40	12,669	0.32%	11.11%
T-16	20	87	0	40	12,669	0.32%	0.00%
T-15	20	87	9	49	12,669	0.39%	22.50%
T-14	20	87	4	53	12,669	0.42%	8.16%
T-13	20	88	7	60	12,736	0.47%	13.21%
MTC1	7	25	+1	19	2,813	0.68%	5.56%
MTC2	4	27	+6	15	4,460	0.34%	66.67%
MTC3	3	12	0	14	2,536	0.55%	0.00%
Other	6	24	0	12	2,927	0.41%	0.00%
Comps
Haunted Mansion					0.600x	=	$1.86m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem					0.561x	=	$2.16m

 

Matinee: 26.67%

3D: 10.00%

 

MTC1 added another EA show to meet demand! I could see ~$1m EA now.

[Hilts]

On 11/2/2023 at 10:56 PM, Hilts said:

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$15.22
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-15	19	81	248	248	15,547	1.60%	-
T-14	20	83	94	342	15,757	2.17%	37.90%

 

MTC1	8	28	+35	162	5,040	3.21%	27.56%
MTC2	4	23	+26	71	3,655	1.94%	57.78%
MTC3	3	20	+14	64	5,355	1.20%	28.00%
Other	5	12	+19	45	1,707	2.64%	73.08%
Day 2 Comps
Barbie					0.507x	=	$11.26m
Blue Beetle					4.275x	=	$14.11m
The Creator					6.218x	=	$9.95m
Five Nights At Freddy's					0.974x	=	$10.04m
The Marvels					1.043x

 

Matinee: 5.59%

3D: 0.59%

PLF: 35.00%

 

These are Day 2 Comps, I tried to switch to T-14 but this is outperforming anything I have tracked with shorter pre-sale windows by some margin and then comping to longer windows gives it an unfair uphill climb. I'll see what it looks like tomorrow.

 

Blue Beetle had very poor days after initial launch hence the high number there. But you can see already slipping to FNAF and already overtaken Marvels. So if I had to guess now I would say this will fall somewhere between the two once we reach the end. Does seem to be overperforming in my region though.

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes							OK
Thursday - showings starting 3pm						ATP	$15.15
Day	Theatres	Showings	Daily Sold	Total Sold	Total Seats	% Sold	Growth
T-15	19	81	248	248	15,547	1.60%	-
T-14	20	83	94	342	15,757	2.17%	37.90%
T-13	20	84	94	436	15,838	2.75%	27.49%

 

MTC1	8	28	+35	213	5,040	4.23%	31.48%
MTC2	4	23	+26	97	3,655	2.65%	36.62%
MTC3	3	20	+14	76	5,355	1.42%	18.75%
Other	5	13	+19	50	1,788	2.80%	11.11%
Comps
Barbie					0.242x	=	$5.38m
Blue Beetle					4.739x	=	$15.64m
The Creator					4.495x	=	$7.19m
Five Nights At Freddy's					0.415x	=	$4.28m
The Marvels					0.722x

 

Matinee: 4.82%

3D: 0.46%

PLF: 36.47%

 

Switched to T-X comps now. Matched prior day sales which is promising. I've just left Blue Beetle there to illustrate how it's performing compared to recent shorter presale windows.

[M37]

Well that was a pretty weak T-6 day for Marvels all around. The GA may just never show up here, and if reviews aren’t great, could be looking at a finish closer to AMWQ pace, down to - if not below! - $6M previews 

[Mulder]

I'll uh...put it this way. As of right now Godzilla Minus One's preview night has sold more IMAX tickets than The Marvels' preview night has at my local with only one showtime vs The Marvels' 3.

[vafrow]

On 11/3/2023 at 6:44 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-7, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 840

New sales: 56

Growth: 7.1%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

1.52x of FNAF (d3)for $15.6M

 

Single theatre comp:

0.266x of ATSV for $4.6M

 

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 3.1 (2.9)

Early evening: 79.5 (80.2)

Late Evening: 17.4 (16.8)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 2.2

Early Evening: 29.0

Late Evening: 7.0

Avg: 15.0

 

Growth was a bit better today. Not tremendous, but, this is what you want to start seeing.

 

I threw FNAF as a comparitor there, as my only real direct comparison. But, they're different films obviously, and had very different sales windows. Based on how Fnaf was growing, Marvels likely falls below by T-5.

 

The Marvels, T-6, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 884

New sales: 44

Growth: 5.2%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

1.12x of FNAF for $11.6M

 

Single theatre comp:

0.256x of ATSV for $4.4M

1.03x of The Flash for $10.0M

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 3.2 (3.1)

Early evening: 77.7 (79.5)

Late Evening: 19.1 (17.4)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 2.3

Early Evening: 29.9

Late Evening: 8.0

Avg: 15.8

 

Growth came down when it really can't afford to. Sales are starting to shift a bit more to late shows. There's still plenty of capacity for early evening, but, not always for the preferred formats like the smaller VIP theatres. 

 

Today, MTC4 runs their community day promotion where they're running free older family movies this morning. Tickets are fully sold out so you'll have lots of people in theatres that don't otherwise go. It could result in an uptick tomorrow, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

If I was tracking Wish, I wouldn't be surprised to see the biggest impact being there.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by vafrow

[Hilts]

15 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

GODZILLA MINUS ONE

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-27 *First few hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
33	60	6654	0.09%

^{*numbers taken as of 5:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

First few hours

 

(0.300x) of The Creator $405k Previews

Comps AVG: $405k

*Take this with a grain of salt, because no MTC1 will really skew things

 

Not much going on...No MTC1 listed yet 

 

If you are tracking this, not sure if included already but just to let you know in case that there are EA showings on the Wednesday (100% PLF at least in my area) and MTC1 has listed those. They seem to be doing the heavy lifting so far so may adjust what you are seeing quite a bit (again if not included already). Since The Creator had Wednesday EA too it should still hopefully be a reasonable comp.

[jeffthehat]

20 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

The Marvels T-6

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 31

Seats sold - 540

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 8.9%

New sales - 25 (+4.9%)

 

Comp 

 

0.12x Eras Fri T-6 = $4.08m / $2.24m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

*shitty comp, only watching the pace 

 

Friday T-7

 

Show count - 65

Seats sold - 389

New sales - 9 (+2.4%)

 

.72x Thu

---

 

Eras comp hasn't moved since T-23, but I expect that to change over the next week. Eras only grew 1.28x from here including preview sales. Surprised it's paced so closely this far though. 

 

 

 

The Marvels T-5

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco Theaters

Show count - 31

Seats sold - 556

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 9.2%

New sales - 16 (+2.9%)

 

Comp 

 

0.12x Eras Fri T-5 = $4.2m / $2.31m ATP adjusted (-45%)*

*shitty comp, only watching the pace 

 

Friday T-6

 

Show count - 65

Seats sold - 409 

New sales - 20 (+4.9%)

---

 

Just not a lot of interest being shown here. Agree that <$6m previews is a possibility, sadly. 

 

[DInky]

7 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

Just not a lot of interest being shown here. Agree that <$6m previews is a possibility, sadly.

 

This is just pure insanity. Surely, this would lead to an OW below Morbius.

[tdangie]

Looks like the trades are finally prepping its readers for a very shallow OW for The Marvels. From Deadline:

It would not be shocking if we see The Marvels charting one of the lowest openings for a Marvel Studios movie next weekend in November with less than $70M –lower than 2021’s The Eternals ($71.2M)— the movie not only a sequel to 2019’s Captain Marvel but also a crossover from Disney+ series, Ms. Marvel. Presales for Captain Marvel are pacing behind that of Black Adam and The Flash were here (those respective openings at $67M and $55M).

[jeffthehat]

20 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Hunger Games Songbird & Snakes T-13

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco Theaters

Show count - 20

Seats sold - 124

 

Comp 

 

.403x Marvels T-13 = ??

 

 

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-12

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco Theaters

Show count - 20

Seats sold - 148

Total seats - 2680

% sold - 5.5%

New sales - 24 (+16%)

 

Comp 

 

.482x Marvels T-12 = ??

---

 

Borrowing M37's acronym  

[keysersoze123]

For those who forgot about Quorum. 

 

 

[whatsupdoc]

Six-Weeks Out Film Tracking Report. 

 

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/6WOFTR-11.03.23.pdf

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by whatsupdoc

[whatsupdoc]

BARBIE - OPPENHEIMER 

BOXOFFICEPRO

 

[YM!]

How’s the Trolls EA stuff looking?

[whatsupdoc]

THE QUORUM VS. BOXOFFICEPRO - Who's more accurate?

 

Here are the opening weekend projections for BOP and TQ for September and October releases. A few notes:

 

1. TQ did not give forecasts for FNAF or TS
2. BOP gives both a range and an actual number
3. TQ gives only a range, but it tends to be much narrower than BOP

 

Winners were assigned based on how closely the actual came to the range or, in the case of BOP, the actual number. 
TQ was designated the winner for THE EQUALIZER 3, and SAW X. BOP was declared the winner for EXPEND4BLES and PAW PATROL. 

 

For the others, an edge was assigned to TQ or BOP based on which service came closest or had a narrower range. For example, TQ was given the edge for GREEK WEDDING even though the actual fell inside the range for both trackers. However, the range for TQ was narrower, and the film was off from the number provided by BOP. 

 

In the case of VENICE, the edge was given to BOP because it fell inside BOP's range, but BOP's number was inside TQ's range. 

 

TOTAL
Winners: TQ: 2. BOP:2
Edge: TQ: 5. BOP: 2

 

The big difference is that TQ only makes its projections available to studios and subscribers. They are not public-facing. Also, TQ gives its first forecast at 6 weeks outs 4 weeks out for BOP. 
 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, YM! said:

How’s the Trolls EA stuff looking?

Really good. 

 

Morning

MTC1 - 22698/48653 238270.24 284 shows

MTC2 - 18996/42452 208454.41 325 shows

 

Based on anecdotal check in east coast screens, its selling 60% or more as average ticket sales. I think it will sell few more sales in other time zones. Good finish and this bodes well for its OW week after next if WOM is good. 

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Really good. 

 

Morning

MTC1 - 22698/48653 238270.24 284 shows

MTC2 - 18996/42452 208454.41 325 shows

 

Based on anecdotal check in east coast screens, it’s selling 60% or more as average ticket sales. I think it will sell few more sales in other time zones. Good finish and this bodes well for its OW week after next if WOM is good. 

So around 750k-1M. With likely decent WOM, what kind of OW would that mean for Trolls? Because I’ve been feeling good about 40m+ for it OW.

Edited November 4, 2023 by YM!