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Shawn Robbins

The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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4 minutes ago, YM! said:

So around 750k-1M. With likely decent WOM, what kind of OW would that mean for Trolls? Because I’ve been feeling good about 40m+ for it OW.

I think 1m will happen as its playing fairly wide even with just 1 show per multiplex. That said its OW presales are depressed due to these shows. We have to see how that goes before extrapolating from early shows. 

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7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think 1m will happen as its playing fairly wide even with just 1 show per multiplex. That said its OW presales are depressed due to these shows. We have to see how that goes before extrapolating from early shows. 

Quite interested to see how it and Wish do OW. Feel confident on 40m+ for both if reception is good and they can keep momentum. Though presales are soft for both, it’s still relatively early. Trolls advertising is everywhere and Wish seems to be outpacing Elemental and Disney seems to be giving it the spotlight marketing over The Marvels (but that might be due to the latter about to die). Seems likely those two will be the biggest November movies which kind of reminds me of this past June lol.

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2 minutes ago, YM! said:

Quite interested to see how it and Wish do OW. Feel confident on 40m+ for both if reception is good and they can keep momentum. Though presales are soft for both, it’s still relatively early. Trolls advertising is everywhere and Wish seems to be outpacing Elemental and Disney seems to be giving it the spotlight marketing over The Marvels (but that might be due to the latter about to die). Seems likely those two will be the biggest November movies which kind of reminds me of this past June lol.

I think Hunger Games will out open Trolls. Plus I am hearing whispers that its fairly good. You never know it could finish ahead of one of the animated movies. Trolls/Wish opening back to back is not good. Trolls should have gone wide this weekend. 

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10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Hunger Games will out open Trolls. Plus I am hearing whispers that it’s fairly good. You never know it could finish ahead of one of the animated movies. Trolls/Wish opening back to back is not good. Trolls should have gone wide this weekend. 

Hunger Games is also a big wildcard too. Also heard things that make me feel breakout is imminent if it has a FNAF and gets last minute screen additions.
 

Agreed on Trolls going wide this weekend. Felt this was done strategically because Comcast smelt blood in the water around when Encanto opened. Still think both can coexist and do well off each other. Grinch and Ralph 2 did 200m+ with less than 12 days away, think it’s possible if receptions good, both could do 150m+ in five days especially with how starved families have been.

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55 minutes ago, YM! said:

Hunger Games is also a big wildcard too. Also heard things that make me feel breakout is imminent if it has a FNAF and gets last minute screen additions.
 

Agreed on Trolls going wide this weekend. Felt this was done strategically because Comcast smelt blood in the water around when Encanto opened. Still think both can coexist and do well off each other. Grinch and Ralph 2 did 200m+ with less than 12 days away, think it’s possible if receptions good, both could do 150m+ in five days especially with how starved families have been.

As I said yesterday Thanksgiving weekend is shaping up to be pretty damm good. 4 movies should all be over 20 million easily,

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7 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

If you are tracking this, not sure if included already but just to let you know in case that there are EA showings on the Wednesday (100% PLF at least in my area) and MTC1 has listed those. They seem to be doing the heavy lifting so far so may adjust what you are seeing quite a bit (again if not included already). Since The Creator had Wednesday EA too it should still hopefully be a reasonable comp.

Was not aware of EA. Thanks 

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1 hour ago, YM! said:

Agreed on Trolls going wide this weekend. Felt this was done strategically because Comcast smelt blood in the water around when Encanto opened. Still think both can coexist and do well off each other. Grinch and Ralph 2 did 200m+ with less than 12 days away, think it’s possible if receptions good, both could do 150m+ in five days especially with how starved families have been.

Yeah, but 5 days is not 12, and Grinch had already banked $140M by the time Ralph opened, plus had a Christmas theme that carried the legs through December in a way that won't replicate for Trolls.

 

The first Trolls opened against Dr Strange in that first weekend of Nov slot, and fared pretty well in legs, only dropping over 40% (weekly) vs Moana first full week and in the post-Thanksgiving week dip (through December). If that same pattern repeats, that means weeks 2 and 3 are both >50% drop, and then you're hoping to hang around in enough locations to add to the total through the Christmas weeks. Something like $50M/$23M/$10M (weekly totals), then maybe legging out another ~$20-$25M from there, which isn't going to get close to $150M

 

I get in the big picture outlook months ago you'd (probably) rather take your chances against a floundering Disney family brand than vs weeks 2 and 3 of MCU (Marvels), but that's a lot of pure family product bunched together, and I'm not sure we're going to see a lot of families double dipping through Thanksgiving weekend, more likely choosing one or the other (before forgetting movies exist altogether until late December)

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On 11/2/2023 at 3:26 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 263 3221 8.17%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 84 2281 3.68%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 7 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
952 96 27048 3.52% 13 141

 

0.971 Indiana Jones 5 T-7 6.99M
0.797 The Flash T-7 7.73M
0.534 Eternals T-7 5.07M

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 293 3221 9.10%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 198 2542 7.79%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 2 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1144 192 27065 4.23% 13 139

 

0.858 The Flash T-5 8.32M
0.332 Guardians 3 T-5 5.81M
0.583 Eternals T-5 5.54M
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On 11/2/2023 at 3:28 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse [+7 days of sales]

T-7 Thursday 193 Showings 4138 +805 28285 ATP: 17.15
0.729 Indiana Jones 5 T-7 5.25M
1.240 The Flash T-7 12.02M
0.754 Eternals T-7 7.16M

 

T-8 Friday 234 Showings 3872 +932 36073 ATP: 16.79
0.761 Indiana Jones 5 T-8 12.78M
1.766 The Flash T-8 26.13M
0.765 Eternals T-8 16.33M

 

T-9 Saturday 241 Showings 3537 +881 37060 ATP: 15.88
0.723 Indiana Jones 5 T-9 13.44M
1.747 The Flash T-9 27.42M
0.696 Eternals T-9 16.79M

 

T-10 Sunday 223 Showings 1692 +527 34421 ATP: 15.71
0.571 Indiana Jones 5 T-10 10.34M
1.789 The Flash T-10 27.72M
0.575 Eternals T-10 9.38M

The Marvels Alamo Drafthouse [+2 days of sales]

T-5 Thursday 197 Showings 4512 +374 28757 ATP: 17.11
1.080 The Flash T-5 10.47M
0.375 Guardians 3 T-5 6.56M
0.764 Eternals T-5 7.26M

 

T-6 Friday 234 Showings 4495 +623 36105 ATP: 16.76
1.608 The Flash T-6 23.79M
0.413 Guardians 3 T-6 12.63M
0.796 Eternals T-6 16.98M

 

T-7 Saturday 244 Showings 4089 +552 37535 ATP: 15.80
1.714 The Flash T-7 26.92M
0.336 Guardians 3 T-7 13.08M
0.727 Eternals T-7 17.54M

 

T-8 Sunday 227 Showings 1974 +282 35021 ATP: 15.58
1.618 The Flash T-8 25.08M
0.299 Guardians 3 T-8 9.40M
0.610 Eternals T-8 9.96M
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On 11/2/2023 at 3:29 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment [+7 days of sales]

T-7 Thursday 157 Showings 1313 +307 25368
1.233 Indiana Jones 5 T-7 8.88M
0.901 The Flash T-7 8.74M

 

T-8 Friday 243 Showings 915 +368 39786
0.949 Indiana Jones 5 T-8 15.95M
0.966 The Flash T-8 14.30M

 

T-9 Saturday 254 Showings 749 +248 40837
1.472 Indiana Jones 5 T-9 27.34M
1.081 The Flash T-9 16.97M

 

T-10 Sunday 245 Showings 356 +139 39656
1.703 Indiana Jones 5 T-10 30.83M
1.092 The Flash T-10 16.93M

The Marvels Emagine Entertainment [+2 days of sales]

T-5 Thursday 157 Showings 1436 +123 25372
0.849 The Flash T-5 8.24M

 

T-6 Friday 243 Showings 1150 +235 39780
0.998 The Flash T-6 14.77M

 

T-7 Saturday 254 Showings 936 +187 40840
1.039 The Flash T-7 16.31M

 

T-8 Sunday 245 Showings 406 +50 39651
0.978 The Flash T-8 15.16M
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12 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Marvels OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 3pm ATP $16.62
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-10 21 171 33 690 31,973 2.16% 5.02%
T-9 25 188 36 726 33,709 2.15% 5.22%
T-8 25 188 50 776 33,709 2.30% 6.89%
T-7 25 188 41 817 33,709 2.42% 5.28%
T-6 25 193 83 900 34,228 2.63% 10.16%
 
MTC1 8 59 +42 434 10,485 4.14% 10.71%
MTC2 4 48 +17 129 8,204 1.57% 15.18%
MTC3 3 39 +16 256 8,077 3.17% 6.67%
Other 10 47 +8 81 7,462 1.09% 10.96%
 
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 0.721x = $5.19m
Barbie 0.235x = $5.23m
Oppenheimer 0.524x = $5.50m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 0.923x = $8.12m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 1.402x = $7.85m
Five Nights at Freddy's 0.528x = $5.44m

 

Matinee: 3.44%

3D: 9.89%

PLF: 58.78%

 

Comp average: $6.22m

 

Took a step up in line with all the other comps so not much change compared with previous day.

 

The Marvels OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 3pm ATP $16.58
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-9 25 188 36 726 33,709 2.15% 5.22%
T-8 25 188 50 776 33,709 2.30% 6.89%
T-7 25 188 41 817 33,709 2.42% 5.28%
T-6 25 193 83 900 34,228 2.63% 10.16%
T-5 25 193 30 930 34,228 2.72% 3.33%
 
MTC1 8 59 +18 452 10,485 4.31% 4.15%
MTC2 4 48 +1 130 8,204 1.58% 0.78%
MTC3 3 39 +6 262 8,077 3.24% 2.34%
Other 10 47 +5 86 7,462 1.15% 6.17%
 
Comps
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 0.690x = $4.97m
Barbie 0.223x = $4.95m
Oppenheimer 0.469x = $4.92m
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One 0.817x = $7.19m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 1.340x = $7.50m
Five Nights at Freddy's 0.507x = $5.22m

 

Matinee: 3.44%

3D: 9.89%

PLF: 58.60%

 

Comp average: $5.79m

 

Ahh no this was not a good day.

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12 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

Trolls Band Together OK
 
Saturday - 2pm - Early Access Screenings ATP $10.32
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-5 11 11 25 206 1,953 10.55% 13.81%
T-4 11 11 31 237 1,953 12.14% 15.05%
T-3 11 11 53 290 1,953 14.85% 22.36%
T-2 11 11 77 363 1,953 18.59% 25.17%
T-1 11 12 149 512 2,027 25.26% 41.05%
               
MTC1 3 4 +24 146 678 21.53% 19.67%
MTC2 2 2 +10 71 239 29.71% 16.39%
MTC3 3 3 +64 203 634 32.02% 46.04%
Other 3 3 +51 92 476 19.33% 124.39%
 
Thursday - showings starting 2pm ATP $12.03
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-17 20 87 4 40 12,669 0.32% 11.11%
T-16 20 87 0 40 12,669 0.32% 0.00%
T-15 20 87 9 49 12,669 0.39% 22.50%
T-14 20 87 4 53 12,669 0.42% 8.16%
T-13 20 88 7 60 12,736 0.47% 13.21%
 
MTC1 7 25 +1 19 2,813 0.68% 5.56%
MTC2 4 27 +6 15 4,460 0.34% 66.67%
MTC3 3 12 0 14 2,536 0.55% 0.00%
Other 6 24 0 12 2,927 0.41% 0.00%
 
Comps
Haunted Mansion 0.600x = $1.86m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 0.561x = $2.16m

 

Matinee: 26.67%

3D: 10.00%

 

MTC1 added another EA show to meet demand! I could see ~$1m EA now.

 

Trolls Band Together OK
 
Saturday - 2pm - Early Access Screenings ATP $10.48
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-4 11 11 31 237 1,953 12.14% 15.05%
T-3 11 11 53 290 1,953 14.85% 22.36%
T-2 11 11 77 363 1,953 18.59% 25.17%
T-1 11 12 149 512 2,027 25.26% 41.05%
T-0 11 12 350 862 2,027 42.53% 68.36%
               
MTC1 3 4 +62 208 678 30.68% 42.47%
MTC2 2 2 +53 124 239 51.88% 74.65%
MTC3 3 3 +126 329 634 51.89% 62.07%
Other 3 3 +109 201 476 42.23% 118.48%
 
Thursday - showings starting 2pm ATP $12.03
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-16 20 87 0 40 12,669 0.32% 0.00%
T-15 20 87 9 49 12,669 0.39% 22.50%
T-14 20 87 4 53 12,669 0.42% 8.16%
T-13 20 88 7 60 12,736 0.47% 13.21%
T-12 20 88 0 60 12,736 0.47% 0.00%

 

Comps
Haunted Mansion 0.594x = $1.84m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 0.480x = $1.85m

 

Matinee: 26.67%

3D: 10.00%

 

Quite confident EA has cleared $1m, if I was bullish I'd say $1.2m but the ATP is low given matinee pricing.

 

Let's see how Thursday does now that's out the way.

Edited by Hilts
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12 hours ago, Hilts said:

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 3pm ATP $15.15
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-15 19 81 248 248 15,547 1.60% -
T-14 20 83 94 342 15,757 2.17% 37.90%
T-13 20 84 94 436 15,838 2.75% 27.49%

 

MTC1 8 28 +35 213 5,040 4.23% 31.48%
MTC2 4 23 +26 97 3,655 2.65% 36.62%
MTC3 3 20 +14 76 5,355 1.42% 18.75%
Other 5 13 +19 50 1,788 2.80% 11.11%
 
Comps
Barbie 0.242x = $5.38m
Blue Beetle 4.739x = $15.64m
The Creator 4.495x = $7.19m
Five Nights At Freddy's 0.415x = $4.28m
The Marvels 0.722x    

 

Matinee: 4.82%

3D: 0.46%

PLF: 36.47%

 

Switched to T-X comps now. Matched prior day sales which is promising. I've just left Blue Beetle there to illustrate how it's performing compared to recent shorter presale windows.

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes OK
 
Thursday - showings starting 3pm ATP $15.21
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-15 19 81 248 248 15,547 1.60% -
T-14 20 83 94 342 15,757 2.17% 37.90%
T-13 20 84 94 436 15,838 2.75% 27.49%
T-12 20 84 58 494 15,838 3.12% 13.30%

 

MTC1 8 28 +34 247 5,040 4.90% 15.96%
MTC2 4 23 +11 108 3,655 2.95% 11.34%
MTC3 3 20 +11 87 5,355 1.62% 14.47%
Other 5 13 +2 52 1,788 2.91% 4.00%
 
Comps
Barbie 0.262x = $5.81m
Blue Beetle 4.222x = $13.93m
The Creator 4.940x = $7.90m
Five Nights At Freddy's 0.447x = $4.61m
The Marvels 0.787x    

 

Matinee: 5.67%

3D: 0.40%

PLF: 35.83%

 

Comp average: $8.07m

Edited by Hilts
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On 10/29/2023 at 10:58 PM, Hilts said:

 

Wish OK
 
Saturday - 4pm - Early Access Screening ATP $11.20
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-22 6 6 2 2 813 0.25% -
T-21 6 6 5 7 813 0.86% 250.00%
T-20 6 6 2 9 813 1.11% 28.57%

 

MTC1 2 2 -2 0 230 0.00% -100.0%
MTC2 2 2 0 0 224 0.00% -
MTC3 2 2 +4 9 359 2.51% 80.00%

 

Tuesday - showings starting 3pm ATP $12.99**
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-27 20 86 1 48 13,478 0.36% 2.13%
T-26 20 86 4 52 13,478 0.39% 8.33%
T-25 20 86 0 52 13,478 0.39% 0.00%
T-24 20 86 0 52 13,478 0.39% 0.00%
T-23 20 86 2 54 13,478 0.40% 3.85%
 
MTC1 7 28 0 41 3,970 1.03% 0.00%
MTC2 4 23 0 6 3,687 0.16% 0.00%
MTC3 3 14 0 5 2,590 0.19% 0.00%
Other 6 21 +2 2 3,231 0.06% -
 
Comps Raw ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion 0.788x = $2.44m $1.83m
Trolls Band Together 0.840x      

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 29.63%

3D: 31.48%

 

Spot check of Wednesday was 29 tickets sold so 53.7% of Tues. Hopefully this picks up. EA has been quiet also.

 

Now this is obviously nowhere near perfect data but extrapolating above in comparison to Encanto/Strange World (with another caveat that they started at 6pm) would near enough get to $50m 5 day OW which seems to be on the low end range everyone was discussing so I would say it has a bit of work to do but there is still time. Trolls seems to be diverting the attention somewhat for now.

 

 

Wish OK
 
Saturday - 4pm - Early Access Screening ATP $10.19
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-18 6 6 0 9 813 1.11% 0.00%
T-17 6 6 0 9 813 1.11% 0.00%
T-16 6 6 0 9 813 1.11% 0.00%
T-15 6 6 8 17 813 2.09% 88.89%
T-14 6 6 8 25 813 3.08% 47.06%
 
MTC1 2 2 +8 12 230 5.22% 200.00%
MTC2 2 2 0 4 224 1.79% 0.00%
MTC3 2 2 0 9 359 2.51% 0.00%
 
Tuesday - showings starting 3pm ATP $12.87**
 
Day Theatres Showings Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold Growth
T-21 20 86 3 57 13,478 0.42% 5.56%
T-20 20 86 -1 56 13,478 0.42% -1.75%
T-19 20 86 4 60 13,478 0.45% 7.14%
T-18 20 86 -4 56 13,458 0.42% -6.67%
T-17 20 86 0 56 13,458 0.42% 0.00%
 
MTC1 7 28 0 41 3,970 1.03% 0.00%
MTC2 4 23 0 8 3,687 0.22% 0.00%
MTC3 3 14 0 5 2,590 0.19% 0.00%
Other 6 21 0 2 3,211 0.06% 0.00%
 
Comps Raw ATP adj*
Haunted Mansion 0.750x = $2.33m $1.74m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: MM 0.338x = $1.89m N/A
Trolls Band Together 0.900x      

 

*75%

**only considers Discount Tue across some (not all) theatres and so is largely irrelevant and incalculable.

 

Matinee: 28.57%

3D: 30.36%

 

Spot check of Wednesday was 52 tickets sold so 92.8% of Tues (previously 29 sold and 53.7%). So has caught up but to be honest not difficult considering very little activity here overall still. EA has picked up a little the last couple of days but still only at half the level of Trolls at T-14.

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4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Really good. 

 

Morning

MTC1 - 22698/48653 238270.24 284 shows

MTC2 - 18996/42452 208454.41 325 shows

 

Based on anecdotal check in east coast screens, its selling 60% or more as average ticket sales. I think it will sell few more sales in other time zones. Good finish and this bodes well for its OW week after next if WOM is good. 

Trolls Band Together Early Shows Final

MTC1 - 25080/48653 264241.44 284 shows

MTC2 - 24413/42860 294655.23 325 shows

 

Good finish. Especially at MTC2. 

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On 11/3/2023 at 6:11 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 


Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

171

313

31233

1.0%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS 

T-13

 

EA on Saturday = 623 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.653x) of Elemental $1.57M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.57M

 

Well, atleast EA sales are robust 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 


Trolls: Band Together 

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

171

313

31233

1.0%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

 

COMPS 

T-12

 

EA on Saturday = 738 seats sold 

*EA is separated from Thursday gross 

 

(0.615x) of Elemental $1.48M Previews

COMPS AVG: $1.48M

 

No previews sales today. EA sales finished really strong 

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On 11/3/2023 at 6:06 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

123

118

20993

0.56%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-13

 

(0.255x) of Exorcist $729K Previews

Comps AVG: $729k

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

THANKSGIVING

 

Thursday Previews 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

123

117

20993

0.56%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

-1

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS 

T-12

 

(0.233x) of Exorcist $666K Previews

Comps AVG: $666k

 

No sales, 1 return

 Going To Hell Halloween GIF by SuperRareBears

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