The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 11/7/2023 at 7:10 AM, vafrow said:

 

The Marvels, T-3, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 1089

New sales: 89

Growth: 8.9%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.705x of FNAF for $7.3M

 

Single theatre comp:

0.232x of ATSV for $4.0M

0.934x of The Flash for $8.7M

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 4.9 (4.2)

Early evening:  75.5 (76.7)

Late Evening: 19.5 (19.1)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 4.4

Early Evening: 35.7

Late Evening: 10.2

Avg: 19.4

 

Growth is increasing, but not at a rate that's going to make much of a difference.

 

The Marvels, T-2, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 1210

New sales: 121

Growth: 11.1%

Theatres: 10 of 10 

Showtimes: 56

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

0.633x of FNAF for $6.5M

 

Single theatre comp:

0.255x of ATSV for $4.4M

1.000x of The Flash for $9.7M

% Breakdown of sales (previous breakdown of sales)

 

Late afternoon: 5.1 (4.9)

Early evening:  74.7 (75.5)

Late Evening: 20.2 (19.5)

 

Tickets per showtime:

Late Afternoon: 5.2

Early Evening: 39.3

Late Evening: 11.6

Avg: 21.6

 

Growth got into double digits. That's something at least.

 

It's actually showing some decent life in the single theatre comps. It's on par with Flash here, but, while I didn't track Flash broadly, I recall it doing a lot better in bigger theatres and formats nearby.

 

Also, despite the tepid sales, theatres are expanding showtimes over the weekend. My Friday count is 116 showtimes compared to 56 for Thursday. And with showtimes already starting from Thursday afternoon, that's coming primarily from more screens.

[filmlover]

Looking ahead, with the holiday schedule looking set in stone at this point, this is what the 10 days before leading up to Christmas Day look like:

 

12/15: Wonka

12/22-Christmas Day: Aquaman 2, Migration, The Color Purple, Anyone But You, The Iron Claw, The Boys in the Boat, Ferrari

 

Nice to see that, strike or no strike, studios continue to pack and overstuff the holiday frame still!

Edited November 8, 2023 by filmlover

[M37]

On 11/6/2023 at 8:14 AM, M37 said:

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-4 Update

 

Yeah, that T-6 weakness continued throughout the weekend, driving the average down to ~$6.6M

Note: I've estimated MTC1 at 64,000 (+3250) based on Keyser's wordy update above for those comps

 

The single comp that has been tracking the average line most closely is Orlando vs GOTG3, so if I'm looking at one update over next  couple of days it would be from @TheFlatLannister

 

Want some good news? Sorry, don't have any .... pace over this last weekend was poor enough that I think its reasonable to rope in AMWQ comps, perhaps as a worst case scenario, but throw them into the average. Looking at just the MCU comps we have - where data is little more scarce - come up with this

 

Here, the MCU only average is closer to $6M ... and holding very steady.  I'd probably take the middle of those two (for convoluted reasons), taking that flag I planted on Friday at $7M, chucking it into the woods, and dropping projection down to ~$6.3M. Won't be totally shocked if it winds up below $6M (before Disney rounds up anyway), but pending reviews that cut off what little momentum there is, don't think that's where expectations should be set

 

We're getting awfully close the Morbius Zone, but I think at this point its more of Watch than a full-blown Warning, and the OW - by hook or by crook - begins with a 4

The Marvels Preview Tracking T-2 Update

 

Big Picture update: despite the soft weekend numbers, where the average dipped from $7.13M at T-7 to $6.5 at T-3, sales have been pretty good over the last two days, and - pending poor reviews - should have a decent finish, at least against the GOTG3 and Eternals comps

Chart updated with Rehpyc's update to T-2 numbers

 

With that said, getting into the weeds a bit ...

 

Spoiler

The data here has me scratching my head a bit.  Flash comps remain high, as that title had very good walk-ups for a CBM, and the expectation is that those come down on the final day as the presale heavier MCU can't keep up.  However, even excluding those, of the 18 non-Flash comps, only four are within $0.5M of the average:

• Orlando GOTG3 (as mentioned before)
• Drafthouse GOTG3
• Sacto Eternals
• Minn/St Paul MI7 (Tue opening)

If one were looking at just MTC1 and a handful of other comps, $7M+ would seem very likely. But on the opposite end, many comps - including MTC2 & MTC3 - would point to like $5M for previews. That's a fairly large discrepancy, and not among smaller markets prone to variance, but the big boys, and growing. Those lower comp values cannot be glossed over, and maybe that changes and corrects over the next couple of days, and samples mostly converge, but if they don't, that gap suggests to me a weakness in GA that will manifest in some way: poor walk-ups, lower IM, or something similar

 

Edited November 9, 2023 by M37
Data update

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

The Marvels T-2

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Shwo count - 31

Seats sold - 701

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 11.6%

New sales - 85 (+13.7%)

 

Friday T-3 (2 days of sales)

 

Show count - 64 (-1)

Seats sold - 585 

New sales - 134 (+30%)

 

.82x Thu

---

 

Decent day, but it's late. Might avoid a morbillion, but struggling to see how it gets $55m+. 

 

 

The Marvels T-1

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 31

Seats sold - 795

Total seats - 6048

% sold - 13.1%

New sales - 94 (+13.1%)

---

 

Grew about the same as yesterday. Don't think there's been time for social media reactions to have an effect though. Bunch of new shows for Friday which is a pain to keep up with, but I'll try to update tomorrow. Think my comps are gonna average ~$6.5m tomorrow, but I've only got Eras, FNaF, and a single theater Barbie comp so they're not great. If I had better ones would guess this chain is performing more like MTC2 and MTC3. FNaF only had 2-day presale windows here and it will bring up the average a lot. 

[el sid]

Napoleon, counted yesterday for Thursday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 9 (1 showtime)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 5 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 0 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 30 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 18 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 62.
 

Comps (all four films counted after ca. 24 hours on sale): Beast (925k from previews) had 53,
The Black Phone (?M) had 95 sold tickets,
M3gan (2.75M) had 57
and The Exorcist II (2.9M) had 171 sold tickets (after less than 24 hours).
KotFM (2.6M) had with 23 days left 764 sold tickets (I think this is not the best comp at the moment because KotFM started very well probably due to the famous names and Cannes, later it will work better).
 

Napoleon, counted yesterday for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 34 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 5 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 35 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 60 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 141. Not frontloaded.
 

Comps (both counted after ca. 24 hours on sale): The Black Phone (10.2OD/23.6M OW) had 34 sold tickets
and Beast (3.375M true Friday/11.6M) had 27.
KotFM (6.8M true Friday/23.3M) had with 24 days left 468 sold tickets.
The Last Duel (1.45M true Friday/4.8M; overall a pretty good comp IMO) finally had 124 sold tickets (so Napoleon is already in front)
and The Northman (3.6M true Friday/12.3M) had also finally 558 sold tickets.
 

So exactly in line with other reports. Presales aren't great but very solid. I'm very interested in this film and its box office performance and therefore will keep a close eye on it .

Edited November 8, 2023 by el sid

[rehpyc]

I failed you all last night. Noticed my mistake and updated my last post.

[keysersoze123]

MTC2 is walkups heavy as its presales are not driven by sub list. I think it will cross the number for 7m with walkups unless terrible reviews prevent the same. Let us see. 

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Seems like Marvels may manage to open 1.5 times my low-end last week. 

60m OW?

[Giorno]

I'm thinking something along the lines of 7-16-16-12 for a $51m OW

[M37]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC2 is walkups heavy as its presales are not driven by sub list. I think it will cross the number for 7m with walkups unless terrible reviews prevent the same. Let us see. 

Its not just MTC2 though, also MTC3, Oklahoma, Miny/St Paul, Denver, even most of Sacto's comps are sub $6.5M! Its only the presale heavier samples - MTC1, Drafthouse and Orlando - that suggest higher

 

So either those samples are leading the charge and we'll see VERY strong walk-ups to bridge the gap ... or this is going to be a presale/metro/PLF heavy film that overindexes in MTC1 et all. The fact that weekend sales were soft and weekday sales are strong - two different audience pools - leads me to the latter conclusion, similar to Little Mermaid or ATSV

 

Honestly though, at this point we're debating a delta of like $0.5M+ Thursday, maybe $5M+ for weekend - the dye has largely been cast, its just a question of how low it goes

[reddevil19]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Its not just MTC2 though, also MTC3, Oklahoma, Miny/St Paul, Denver, even most of Sacto's comps are sub $6.5M! Its only the presale heavier samples - MTC1, Drafthouse and Orlando - that suggest higher

 

So either those samples are leading the charge and we'll see VERY strong walk-ups to bridge the gap ... or this is going to be a presale/metro/PLF heavy film that overindexes in MTC1 et all. The fact that weekend sales were soft and weekday sales are strong - two different audience pools - leads me to the latter conclusion, similar to Little Mermaid or ATSV

 

Honestly though, at this point we're debating a delta of like $0.5M+ Thursday, maybe $5M+ for weekend - the dye has largely been cast, its just a question of how low it goes

That 5 million over the OW could mean it opens under Flash or above though. Still a disaster either way, but the optics for Marvel and Disney if it opens under Flash would be catastrophic. This will be a very exciting weekend for those of us that enjoy disaster flicks.

[M37]

12 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

That 5 million over the OW could mean it opens under Flash or above though. Still a disaster either way, but the optics for Marvel and Disney if it opens under Flash would be catastrophic. This will be a very exciting weekend for those of us that enjoy disaster flicks.

I think it’s more whether it’s like $40-$45M vs $45-$50, not $55+

 

I’m still basically at $6.5M & 7x = $45, with $50M+ an uphill climb. Not impossible, but those non-presale heavy markets and/or weekend sales better come up fast to get there 

[reddevil19]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

I think it’s more whether it’s like $40-$45M vs $45-$50, not $55+

 

I’m still basically at $6.5M & 7x = $45, with $50M+ an uphill climb. Not impossible, but those non-presale heavy markets and/or weekend sales better come up fast to get there 

Fair enough. I guess I'm still thinking the floor for the MCU is not quite Morbius-level, but this weekend could very well change the hierarchy of power for good.

[Firepower]

Low 40s would be so close to Morbius.

[Shawn Robbins]

15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Shawn when do we get a number from studio for the movie. 

Marvels?

[keysersoze123]

25 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Marvels?

Yes. Studio used to provide their expectations for the weekend. Generally its a low ball but I am curious what they will do here. 

Edited November 8, 2023 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

On 11/7/2023 at 8:21 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Marvels MTC2 Previews(T-3) - 28664/533083 418433.90 3959 shows

 

it sold just under 3K tickets over previous day. Pace and absolute number is terrible. Around half of Eternals. Its well below Flash as well. Its non MTC1 numbers are similar to what @rehpyc posted. So its going to over index over there. 

 

Marvels MTC2 Previews(T-3) - 33866/579972 489073.79 4446 shows +5202

 

At last its presales is ahead of where Guardians was after its OD presales. 

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Yes. Studio used to provide their expectations for the weekend. Generally its a low ball but I am curious what they will do here. 

 

They are being very careful in saying what they expect, instead citing NRG (which have come down from 80 to 60s in recent weeks). I think they realize sub-60 is highly likely, though.

 

Honestly, I'm not even sure I'll keep 60 part of the high-end range in the final forecast today (was 45-62 last week). Veterans Day might help Friday, but I am still very concerned about the overall pre-sale trajectory and the 54% (41 critics) RT score so far.

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

 

They are being very careful in saying what they expect, instead citing NRG (which have come down from 80 to 60s in recent weeks). I think they realize sub-60 is highly likely, though.

 

Honestly, I'm not even sure I'll keep 60 part of the high-end range in the final forecast today (was 45-62 last week). Veterans Day might help Friday, but I am still very concerned about the overall pre-sale trajectory and the 54% (41 critics) RT score so far.

Jesus Christ.

[interiorgatordecorator]

the marvels's reactions were somewhat decent, but the reviews probably negate any positive impact they could have had, should have kept it up till previews began 

 

dont know if that was feasible or not 

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator