The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, Eric Bonaparte said:

Well...shit. If Napoleon really does land and Color Purple succeeds, stuff like Holdovers and Poor Things do solid for platform releases...maybe people are finally moving away from NTCs after all.

Except part of The Color Purple's appeal is its connection to a nearly 40 year old movie. 

[Issac Newton]

@BOReport Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.

 

Rank	Film (Distributor)	3-Day Weekend Gross	5-Day Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Wish (Disney)	$29.0 M	$44.0 M	$44.0 M	NEW	1
2	The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Lionsgate)	$24.5 M	$35.5 M	$90.8 M	-45%	2
3	Napoleon (Sony / Apple)	$24.0 M	$37.5 M	$37.5 M	NEW	1
4	Trolls Band Together (Universal / DreamWorks Animation)	$17.5 M	$24.5 M	$62.5 M	-42%	2
5	Thanksgiving (Sony / TriStar)	$6.7 M	$10.0 M	$23.0 M	-35%	2
6	The Marvels (Disney)	$5.5 M	$7.8 M	$75.1 M	-46%	3
7	Saltburn (Amazon MGM Studios)	$3.8 M	$5.8 M	$6.2 M	+1,078%	2
8	The Holdovers (Focus)	$1.9 M	$2.6 M	$11.7 M	-30%	5
9	Five Nights at Freddy's (Universal)	$1.8 M	$2.5 M	$136.2 M	-49%	5

[SpiderByte]

45 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Except part of The Color Purple's appeal is its connection to a nearly 40 year old movie. 

Ideally it's appeal is that it's a musical, but if they continue they very fucking stupid trend of musicals hiding the fact that they're musicals, to everyone else it might just look like a cash grab remake.

[emoviefan]

7 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Could be my delusional history fan nerd soul talking, but between Oppenheimer beeing a massive hit, KOTFM doing quite respectable numbers and now Napoleon looking like a potential small breakout - maybe people are gaining interest again in historical movies/epics like in the early 2000s?

 

I for one would welcome that development.

Same here.

[Bob Train]

-

P

Napoleon

Sony Pictures

$3,000,000

3,014

$995

$3,000,000

[Shawn Robbins]

15 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Deadline listed it as 1.1m in their article, but it appears to have not been rolled into the OW unlike other recent movies.

 

https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office-hunger-games-songbirds-and-snakes-1235616095/

 

 

Ah, yes. I was going off what Uni told me would be the case last Friday morning. Haven't had a chance to look at their emails until now as I've been dealing with some family stuff, but it is indeed confirmed $1.17m in their weekend actual emails (but not included in the weekend gross). @abracadabra1998

[Spideeey24]

https://deadline.com/2023/11/box-office-wish-napoleon-thanksgiving-1235634036/

[Giorno]

Wish $2.3m doesn't say if that includes EA or not 

[Shawn Robbins]

13 minutes ago, Giorno said:

Wish $2.3m doesn't say if that includes EA or not 

Includes 500k from EA

[gojorager]

Napoleon overperforming, this bodes well for Joker 2  

[Johnny Tran]

9 minutes ago, gojorager said:

Napoleon overperforming, this bodes well for Joker 2  

 

Is Phoenix considered a big star now off 'Joker'?  You have to think Lady Gaga is going to add some extra interest as well possibly from demos that didn't care about the first Joker. 

[TMP]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

Is Phoenix considered a big star now off 'Joker'?  You have to think Lady Gaga is going to add some extra interest as well possibly from demos that didn't care about the first Joker. 

Can’t see a scenario where this isn’t the highest grossing cbm of 2024 by a substantial margin

[titanic2187]

Napoleon is a movie in many months that I can see genuine substantial bump in the last week of presale. Coincidentally, the last one was Barbie + Oppenheimer just before strike started. 

[Bob Train]

14 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Napoleon is a movie in many months that I can see genuine substantial bump in the last week of presale. Coincidentally, the last one was Barbie + Oppenheimer just before strike started. 

what about Equalizer 3

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

what about Equalizer 3

I would say it was stable rather than trending upwards. 

[TheFlatLannister]

Adult dramas will make nice money for sure but they are in no way going to become the main box office force. The box office is going to become more top heavy with more IP sequels and spin-offs being greenlighted 

[ringedmortality]

20 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Adult dramas will make nice money for sure but they are in no way going to become the main box office force. The box office is going to become more top heavy with more IP sequels and spin-offs being greenlighted 

 

Can't we just celebrate something for five seconds

[Giorno]

Wonka (D-22):

 

61 tickets at 5 Houston AMC's/+3 YD

 

Aquaman 2 (D-29):

 

109 tickets at 5 Houston AMC's/+7 YD

[Porthos]

18 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Wish Sacramento Report [FINAL] [3:55pm - 4:10pm]

NOTE:  All showtimes before 3:55pm were sampled at the start of their showing.

2571/15130 (16.99% sold) [+783 tickets] [634 EA (FINAL) | 1937 Tue (+783)]  121 showings (9 EA | 112 Tue)

 

TUESDAY ONLY COMPS:

No Adjustment for Discount Tuesday:

0.66336x TMNT at T-0          [2.55m]

 

Adjusted Downward by 25% for Discount Tuesday:

1.01414x Elemental at T-0     [1.83m]

 

0.63843x GBA at T-0            [2.44m]  [Adjusted for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.49026x Sonic 2 at T-0       [2.30m]
1.16476x Shazam 2 at T-0    [2.97m]
0.19879x AtSV at T-0            [2.57m]
0.16039x Barbie at T-0         [2.68m]
0.84181x HM at T-0               [1.96m]
0.29957x FNAF at T-0          [2.31m]

 

========

 

EA ONLY COMP:

0.33194x Elemental [FINAL] [797k - SAT ONLY]

 

===

 

Tue Elemental comp still went down, but the bottom didn't fall out.  Most of the other comps are pointing to 2.5m-ish for Tue Only, but I think most of them don't have enough kids tickets/too many PLF seats sold.  So let's split the difference between Haunted Mansion and Elemental and say 1.9m +/- .2m for Tue Only and stick with 800k +/- .2m for Sat EA.

 

Combined that makes Sacramento looking like 2.7m +/- .4m.

(.4m +/- thanks to EA as well as Tue)

 

Do think Sacramento is running hot, though as I look over at Oklahoma, perhaps not.  Probably gonna be closer to 2.5m when all is said and done, but I tend to like to go where the numbers are pointing.  And, well, my stances on caring that much about Q&D reports are well established by now. 

 

Riiiiight at the edge, I'll take it. 👍

 

====

 

With it being 500k in EA, that'd be 1.8 in previews which is almost exactly what Elemental Tue Only predicted, so good going there.

 

Strongly suspected my local EA was off, which is why I separated the comps.  Also suspected that Disney would report a combined number, unlike Paramount, which is why I bothered to track that Sat EA in the first place.

 

In the end, Sacramento was running hot, but only for the EA portion of the sales.  Which was pretty evident, but little I could do about it.

 

Seriously though, feel good about this result, especially with the Discount Tuesday and shit ton of kids ticket factors.

[poweranimals]

22 minutes ago, Giorno said:

Wonka (D-22):

 

61 tickets at 5 Houston AMC's/+3 YD

 

Aquaman 2 (D-29):

 

109 tickets at 5 Houston AMC's/+7 YD

Is that good or bad?