The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

17 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Boys in the Boat (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Christmas Day: 20 theaters	102	1793	1793	7692	23.31
Sunday: 17 theaters	44	287	287	3447	8.33
TOTALS:	146	2080	2080	11139	18.67

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	114	0
MTC1:		708	135	34.04
Marcus:		349	11	16.78
Alamo:		107	0	5.14
Other chains:		916	8	44.04

 

Sunday Comps:

2.35x The Iron Claw: ?? (~1 million probably)

3.59x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.97 Million

1.74x Haunting in Venice: $1.91 Million

 

Christmas Day Comp:

0.55x The Color Purple

 

Ummm was not expecting this, way stronger than I was thinking. With the ATP adjustment for Sunday probably looking at mid-1 million and then for Christmas Day high single digits? Pretty darn strong.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Boys in the Boat (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Christmas Day: 20 theaters	102	333	2126	7692	27.64
Sunday: 17 theaters	44	58	345	3447	10.01
TOTALS:	146	391	2471	11139	22.18

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	114	0
MTC1:		831	135	33.63
Marcus:		407	11	16.47
Alamo:		119	0	4.82
Other chains:		1114	8	45.08

 

Sunday Comps:

2.28x The Iron Claw: $1.53 Million

2.8x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.54 Million

1.7x Haunting in Venice (THU): $1.87 Million

 

Christmas Day Comp:

0.57x The Color Purple

 

Very nice update for Christmas Day, especially since I got my numbers yesterday quite a bit later than usual so this is less than 24 hours. If any other trackers have the capacity for it, it would be really interesting to get some more numbers on this one!! I am curious if it is overperforming versus TCP because of MSP being White-skewing cities, or if it is doing the same everywhere else. If TCP might flirt with $20 million, based on my numbers, this might flirt with $10M for Christmas Day!

[abracadabra1998]

17 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

Ferrari (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-3	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Christmas Day: 17 theaters	75	585	585	5989	9.77
Sunday: 13 theaters	24	76	76	1906	3.99
TOTALS:	99	661	661	7895	8.37

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	114	0
MTC1:		227	135	34.34
Marcus:		93	11	14.07
Alamo:		107	0	16.19
Other chains:		234	8	35.4

 

Sunday Comps:

0.62xx The Iron Claw: ?? (~250-300k probably)

0.29x Asteroid City: $320k

 

Christmas Day Comp:

0.18x The Color Purple

 

Not very good  

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

Ferrari (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Christmas Day: 17 theaters	75	77	662	5989	11.05
Sunday: 13 theaters	24	22	98	1906	5.14
TOTALS:	99	99	760	7895	9.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	114	0
MTC1:		275	135	36.18
Marcus:		98	11	12.89
Alamo:		103	0	13.55
Other chains:		284	8	37.37

 

Sunday Comps:

0.65x The Iron Claw: $435k

0.28x Asteroid City: $305k

 

Christmas Day Comp:

0.18x The Color Purple

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Boys in the Boat (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Christmas Day: 20 theaters	102	333	2126	7692	27.64
Sunday: 17 theaters	44	58	345	3447	10.01
TOTALS:	146	391	2471	11139	22.18

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	114	0
MTC1:		831	135	33.63
Marcus:		407	11	16.47
Alamo:		119	0	4.82
Other chains:		1114	8	45.08

 

Sunday Comps:

2.28x The Iron Claw: $1.53 Million

2.8x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.54 Million

1.7x Haunting in Venice (THU): $1.87 Million

 

Christmas Day Comp:

0.57x The Color Purple

 

Very nice update for Christmas Day, especially since I got my numbers yesterday quite a bit later than usual so this is less than 24 hours. If any other trackers have the capacity for it, it would be really interesting to get some more numbers on this one!! I am curious if it is overperforming versus TCP because of MSP being White-skewing cities, or if it is doing the same everywhere else. If TCP might flirt with $20 million, based on my numbers, this might flirt with $10M for Christmas Day!

I think its an outlier. While Boys in the boat is doing well, no way its hitting .57x of Color Purple. 

[abracadabra1998]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think its an outlier. While Boys in the boat is doing well, no way its hitting .57x of Color Purple. 

Right, I definitely agree, I’m just wondering how much of an outlier it is. What kind of Christmas Day are you seeing?

[joaqs]

George Clooney's directing career does not need any more encouragement.

[M37]

51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I did not post this yesterday

Color Purple MTC1 // As of yesterday evening

12/25 - 202301/559338 2530497.77 3952 shows

12/26 -56006/515813 713277.18 3546 shows

 

I am thinking 275K by the time shows start and probably 25m OD is in play !!!  but pace for 12/26 is about 1/4 of Christmas day sales and 12/27 is all about walkups. So this is a unique run from my perspective. 

It’s been holding that 4:1 ratio pretty much since you started posting numbers for both days 

 

I do think we’re going to need 600K+ seats to entertain $25M talk though. Current max IMO is like $23-$24, if it exceeds Barbenheimer level of occupancy across the entire MTC, $21-$22 range if it matches it (and my PSM math holds up)

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, M37 said:

It’s been holding that 4:1 ratio pretty much since you started posting numbers for both days 

 

I do think we’re going to need 600K+ seats to entertain $25M talk though. Current max IMO is like $23-$24, if it exceeds Barbenheimer level of occupancy across the entire MTC, $21-$22 range if it matches it (and my PSM math holds up)

Christmas day should be peak BO potential. Barbenheimer was in summer and hype was off the charts. I am sure few more shows will be added for Color Purple for sure. 

 

@rehpyc do you have any comps for Color Purple. I am sure its doing great in your land as well. I am not sure how its doing in Canada. May be @DAJK can provide some color. 

[dallas]

I don't have any comps for Color Purple but it's absolutely massive in my area. I genuinely haven't seen this much in presales since Barbie 

[DAJK]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Christmas day should be peak BO potential. Barbenheimer was in summer and hype was off the charts. I am sure few more shows will be added for Color Purple for sure. 

 

@rehpyc do you have any comps for Color Purple. I am sure its doing great in your land as well. I am not sure how its doing in Canada. May be @DAJK can provide some color. 

Out for dinner right now, can check later tonight but not great. About on par with the other Xmas day openers.

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Christmas day should be peak BO potential. Barbenheimer was in summer and hype was off the charts. I am sure few more shows will be added for Color Purple for sure. 

Problem is, with schedules already done and so many new releases (which generally can't be touched unless they totally bomb), there isn't going to much flexibility to cancel films and add additional TCP shows; they by and large would have already been put up. Don't see any way to get to 600K seats from here

 

An yes, Xmas day is among the peaks (Cinema Day might actually have higher admits now), but I cannot stress how insane it is to breach 50% let alone 60% capacity for one title across an entire MTC; only NWH and Barbenheimer have done it post-pandemic, not even the Thursdays for Strange MoM (46%), BPWF (37.8%) or Thor L&T (41%).  Frankly, there's a good deal of dead weight at the bottom of the curve that's going to have a lot of empty seats, particularly for this film which is likely to have a much more metro-heavy skew, and also with the late shows having very few sales

 

I'm not at all going to be shocked if TCP gets all the way to $20M, but really have a difficult time seeing much over $22M

[TheFlatLannister]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I did not post this yesterday

Color Purple MTC1 // As of yesterday evening

12/25 - 202301/559338 2530497.77 3952 shows

12/26 -56006/515813 713277.18 3546 shows

 

I am thinking 275K by the time shows start and probably 25m OD is in play !!!  but pace for 12/26 is about 1/4 of Christmas day sales and 12/27 is all about walkups. So this is a unique run from my perspective. 

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

(3.805x) of Mi7 $26.63M 

(1.839x) of TLM $18.95M 

(1.045x) of Barbie $22.06M 

Comps AVG: $22.55M

 

Wouldn't be shocked if this hits something like $25M OD at this point

Kind of the same thing I am seeing.

[HummingLemon496]

    = 

 

 

 

 

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Out for dinner right now, can check later tonight but not great. About on par with the other Xmas day openers.

 

I'll do another update in my region tomorrow, but quick look is decent growth, but not catching the same wave as down South.

[HowSway]

16 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

    = 

 

 

 

 

Black Panther was a cultural phenomenon. Made $200 million in it's first weekend. They're not even remotely similar. The only thing they both have is black led cast.

[rehpyc]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Christmas day should be peak BO potential. Barbenheimer was in summer and hype was off the charts. I am sure few more shows will be added for Color Purple for sure. 

 

@rehpyc do you have any comps for Color Purple. I am sure its doing great in your land as well. I am not sure how its doing in Canada. May be @DAJK can provide some color. 

 

Will give things a whirl early tomorrow with some comps. As @M37 has mentioned, it'll be very hard-pressed for MTCs to pivot and add additional shows at this point. Some were better than others with prioritizing this film above others for Xmas day, whether that be total show counts, or capitalizing on consumers in African American-driven markets w/ the PLF offerings in particular (easy way to ensure selling out your screens with the highest ticket price). In the end, doesn't wholly matter, as will just spill over the demand to subsequent days, but does take away from being a larger Xmas day spectacle.

 

Fully expecting this MTC to underperform, but we'll see where things are at tomorrow.

[rehpyc]

To put some things in perspective, granted there was limited competition/holdovers to worry about.. MTC 1-3 show counts..

 

FNAF's 24M first Saturday, 6.9K, 6.6K, 7.5K

The Marvels' 15M first Saturday, 8.6K, 6.4K, 9.4K

 

TCP Xmas day, 4.6K, 3.0K, 2.9K.. No IMAX, no 4DX, no ScreenX, and PLF screen allocation per MTC are only 30%, 25%, 10%. It's going to require a whole lot more admissions than other films to post big numbers, but that will make the final gross all the more impressive.

Edited December 23, 2023 by rehpyc
Corrected TCP PLF allocations

[joselowe]

48 minutes ago, HowSway said:

Black Panther was a cultural phenomenon. Made $200 million in it's first weekend. They're not even remotely similar. The only thing they both have is black led cast.

Same impact though. As an African American people are going in droves to see The Color Purple, full families, black churches, black sororities. The problem is that The Color Purple isn’t getting anywhere near as many screens as Black Panther. Here in South Florida, most Color Purple screenings are sold out but Wonka and Aquaman have double the screens on Christmas Day, yet most screenings for Wonka and Aquaman are empty.  As me and someone else from South Florida said in last weekend’s Wonka thread, Wonka simply isn’t translating well here. TCP has potential if more screens are added after Warner sees where the demand is.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 12/21/2023 at 10:17 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
229	7036	45008	15.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

813

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

2

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-4

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(3.805x) of Mi7 $26.63M 

(1.839x) of TLM $18.95M 

(1.045x) of Barbie $22.06M 

Comps AVG: $22.55M

 

Wouldn't be shocked if this hits something like $25M OD at this point

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
229	7540	45008	16.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

504

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-3

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(3.845x) of Mi7 $26.91M 

(1.829x) of TLM $18.84M 

(0.980x) of Barbie $20.68M 

Comps AVG: $22.14M

 

Not its best day, but also not bad either 

[keysersoze123]

Quick Update

MTC1 12/25

Color Purple - 224790/565564 2802743.42 4018 shows

Wonka - 49279/494303 606459.19 3065 shows

Aquaman 2 - 29126/689127 440292.88 4000 shows

Boys in the Boat - 27701/165297 321894.55 1827 shows

Migration - 15567/515824 195885.27 2643 shows

 

I would say the Top 5 for the day :-)

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

has the marketing/oprah explicitly been telling people to buy tickets on Christmas day? is something silly like missing 100 million from a 25 million christmas od possible?