The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

Very quick on this, for what it's worth..

 

T-5

Barbie 26.5M

BP:WF 16.8M

TLM 32.3M

MI7 30.5M

 

T-4

Barbie 25.0M

BP:WF 17.0M

TLM 31.9M

MI7 28.4M

 

T-3

Barbie 23.4M

BP:WF 17.5M

TLM 30.7M

MI7 27.8M

 

If I had to guess right now, would wager on the 20M end, but capacity constraints and lack of premium formats vs. these comps is going to hinder its potential.

Nice. All 3 MTC are on board this train. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/22/2023 at 6:33 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Color Purple (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	130	443	3726	14689	25.37

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		573	43	15.38
MTC1:		1517	157	40.71
Marcus:		496	59	13.31
Alamo:		256	10	6.87
Other chains:		1457	217	39.1

 

Comps:

3x Hunger Games BoSS (THU): $17.22 Million

0.44x Barbenheimer (THU): $14.08 Million

12.46x Wish (TUE): $22.43 Million

7.36x Napoleon (TUE): $22.09 Million

2.45x MI7 (TUE): $17.13 Million

 

Average (no adjustments): $18.58 Million

 

Slowed down today, I think capacity is starting to become a big issue. This is the type of release where depending on where in town, a theater is either super packed or almost empty, so even though it says near 25% capacity that is really hiding the fact that some theaters are way more impacted than others (extreme case- one theater is at almost 85% capacity!). I don't really see it being able to keep up the pace it has been having due to this, but perhaps I am wrong.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Color Purple (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	133	575	4301	14911	28.84

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		696	123	16.18
MTC1:		1748	231	40.64
Marcus:		570	74	13.25
Alamo:		273	17	6.35
Other chains:		1710	253	39.76

 

Comps:

2.97x Hunger Games BoSS (THU): $17.08 Million

0.43x Barbenheimer (THU): $13.7 Million

12.72x Wish (TUE): $22.9 Million

7.1x Napoleon (TUE): $21.29 Million

2.42x MI7 (TUE): $16.93 Million

 

Average (no adjustments): $18.38 Million

 

This is likely my last update. The two latest Tuesday releases are pointing straight to $20 Million, while the blockbusters are pointing much lower. It's encouraging what I'm seeing on this thread so I'll be rooting for that $20 Million number!

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/22/2023 at 6:41 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

The Boys in the Boat (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Christmas Day: 20 theaters	102	333	2126	7692	27.64
Sunday: 17 theaters	44	58	345	3447	10.01
TOTALS:	146	391	2471	11139	22.18

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	114	0
MTC1:		831	135	33.63
Marcus:		407	11	16.47
Alamo:		119	0	4.82
Other chains:		1114	8	45.08

 

Sunday Comps:

2.28x The Iron Claw: $1.53 Million

2.8x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.54 Million

1.7x Haunting in Venice (THU): $1.87 Million

 

Christmas Day Comp:

0.57x The Color Purple

 

Very nice update for Christmas Day, especially since I got my numbers yesterday quite a bit later than usual so this is less than 24 hours. If any other trackers have the capacity for it, it would be really interesting to get some more numbers on this one!! I am curious if it is overperforming versus TCP because of MSP being White-skewing cities, or if it is doing the same everywhere else. If TCP might flirt with $20 million, based on my numbers, this might flirt with $10M for Christmas Day!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Sunday:

 

The Boys in the Boat (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Sunday: 17 theaters	47	188	533	3663	14.55

 

Sunday Comps:

2.96x The Iron Claw: $1.98 Million

3.6x Big Fat Greek Wedding 3: $1.98 Million

2.22x Haunting in Venice (THU): $2.44 Million

 

Only had time to track Sunday numbers today. I would bet the over on $2 Million Sunday but it seems this is running really hot for some reason (maybe because we're the land of 10,000 lakes? Lotta boats around here). So it's probably an outlier, like Key said.

[abracadabra1998]

On 12/22/2023 at 6:45 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Christmas Day:

 

Ferrari (T-3):

Day: T-3, T-2	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Christmas Day: 17 theaters	75	77	662	5989	11.05
Sunday: 13 theaters	24	22	98	1906	5.14
TOTALS:	99	99	760	7895	9.63

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	114	0
MTC1:		275	135	36.18
Marcus:		98	11	12.89
Alamo:		103	0	13.55
Other chains:		284	8	37.37

 

Sunday Comps:

0.65x The Iron Claw: $435k

0.28x Asteroid City: $305k

 

Christmas Day Comp:

0.18x The Color Purple

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Sunday:

 

Ferrari (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Sunday: 13 theaters	24	63	161	1906	8.45

 

Sunday Comps:

0.89x The Iron Claw: $600k

0.38x Asteroid City: $420k

 

Maybe around $500k Sunday. My next update will probably be on Thursday starting those January releases. I'll still be lurking though hehe. Happy Holidays everyone! 

[MovieMan89]

Lol no, missing 100 from a 25 Xmas OD would absolutely not be possible to answer that question 

[HummingLemon496]

The Color Purple is doing $200M domestic 

Edited December 24, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[M37]

7 hours ago, harrisonisdead said:

Feel like this thread would take issue with Deadline's use of the words "no one" 

I mean, TCP has probably (maybe?) already hit $10-$12M in sales with 2 days to go 

 

With tracking basically done at this point (y’all have earned a holiday break!) I’m going to go ahead and stick with $18-$20M, ahead of Les Mis but not by much 

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
229	7540	45008	16.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

504

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-3

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(3.845x) of Mi7 $26.91M 

(1.829x) of TLM $18.84M 

(0.980x) of Barbie $20.68M 

Comps AVG: $22.14M

 

Not its best day, but also not bad either 

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
229	8519	45008	18.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

633

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-2

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(4.039x) of Mi7 $28.28M 

(1.824x) of TLM $18.78M 

(0.958x) of Barbie $20.20M 

Comps AVG: $22.42M

 

I realized i made a mistake yesterday the actual number of seats sold was: 7886

 

looks like $20M+ to me 

[Cmasterclay]

If Color Purple missed 100m domestic from a 20m OD in Christmas season, it'd be legitimately the worst legs ever. Even the dire Ali comparison thrown around in this thread (for both starring black people, I guess?) would get it to 114. Given that this is a woman-targeted musical that I bet gets an A Cinemascore given the triumphant nature of it, I would ballpark Les Mis numbers.

[CJohn]

The Color Purple is doing 150M+.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Orlando-Daytona-Gainesville 

 

The Color Purple

 

Christmas 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
229	8519	45008	18.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

633

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

2

 

COMPS

T-2

 

Comps with Thursday-Tuesday previews *Not good comps because Thursday/Tuesday previews compared to full day Holiday of Box office* 

(4.039x) of Mi7 $28.28M 

(1.824x) of TLM $18.78M 

(0.958x) of Barbie $20.20M 

Comps AVG: $22.42M

 

I realized i made a mistake yesterday the actual number of seats sold was: 7886

 

looks like $20M+ to me 

keep in mind this is not adjusted for ATP and other capacity constraints. 

 

Using @abracadabra1998 engineered 35% adjustment that gets me ~$15M so sub $20M OD wouldn't be surprising as well 

[PrinceRico]

23 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The Color Purple is doing 150M+.

First the movie was supposed to get mixed reviews for whatever reason. Then it was the WB is hiding reviews even though they dont release reviews until a week before thier films open. Now it will somehow miss 100 million despite every sign pointing towards a WOM break out hit. SMH

[HummingLemon496]

TCP is earning the platinum A+ and will have strong legs 

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[rehpyc]

To those that have them, check out FNAF as a comp, both for similar ATP and growth at this stage.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

To those that have them, check out FNAF as a comp, both for similar ATP and growth at this stage.

At $18.36M

[Porthos]

39 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

First the movie was supposed to get mixed reviews for whatever reason. Then it was the WB is hiding reviews even though they dont release reviews until a week before thier films open. Now it will somehow miss 100 million despite every sign pointing towards a WOM break out hit. SMH

 

tbf I think it was like one person saying that.  Hell, not even saying it but asking if it was possible.

 

(no, if it opens to anything like it looks like it is going to open to, it is not possible, for the record)

 

Not as if it was a sudden groundswell of people here doubting it.

[MovieMan89]

It’s doing 200+ if it really hits 25 OD, but that’s still a lot to ask for 

[abracadabra1998]

4 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

keep in mind this is not adjusted for ATP and other capacity constraints. 

 

Using @abracadabra1998 engineered 35% adjustment that gets me ~$15M so sub $20M OD wouldn't be surprising as well 

i think it was @M37 that made a good point earlier this month, that closest to release the adjustment will be smaller (blockbusters stop being so PLF-heavy, whereas TCP gained PLFs later in it run). So probably closer to a 25% adjustment by now I would be guessing, not backed by any data tho

[abracadabra1998]

3 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

At $18.36M

 

 

3 hours ago, rehpyc said:

To those that have them, check out FNAF as a comp, both for similar ATP and growth at this stage.

 

$19.4M using my T-2 numbers, dare I say we’re starting to get at a tighter range 👀

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Color Purple, T-3, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 3 (of 5)

Total Sales: 52

New Sales since last update: 28

Growth: 117%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Good growth, but, not sure if it can reach heights similar to US markets.

 

Even if it doubles the next two days and big walk ups, it's only getting it to a number similar to other Thursday previews of the last month (Wonka, Aquaman, HG).

 

Sales are also heavily concentrated towards the three VIP showtimes. This is a tiny 34 seat auditorium, and its three showings make up 60% of sales. The other large auditoriums are mainly empty, with highest tickets sold is 5 tickets.

 

Regarding demographics, Canada is obviously very different than the US, but this is a pull from a pretty diverse area. 

 

The Color Purple, T-2, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Theatres: 3 (of 5)

Total Sales: 73

New Sales since last update: 21

Growth: 40%

Showtimes: 19

Radius 19km

 

Sales are slowing down. And 15 of the 21 new sales came from those three small VIP showings that can't grow much more. The bigger auditoriums just aren't selling yet.

 

Taking some peaks at the wider radius shows it performing similarly elsewhere in rhe region. I think it's just not catching the same way up here yet.