The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 40735/439035 611967.47 2802 shows

Friday - 6930/381995 106281.34 2280 shows

 

It sold like 5K 2 days ago and 6.3K yesterday. Pace it which its going, its shooting for high single digits or even low double digits VD and then drop off the cliff.  

VD is good but FRI is poor. How is THU.

[JustLurking]

4 hours ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

I think this is the biggest factor. TOP GUN: MAVERICK was a phenomenon and a ton of people saw it who hadn't seen or didn't remember TOP GUN. DUNE: PART TWO just doesn't feel - and hey, I could always be wrong, check back in a month - like a movie that's going to bring in people who didn't see or didn't like the first. Audiences know at this point whether DUNE is or isn't for them, so the movie's depending on audience growth from streamers who now pay for tickets and people who came to the first in the interim between movies.

 

How big is that audience? We'll see. Just based on personal feeling, an opening that's 75% higher due to sequel rush and a total around 50% higher due to those newly accounted ticket buyers sounds about right to me.

If Dune2 opens 75% higher (70Mish) a total 50% higher gives it 2.25x legs. Just putting it out there, but that simply does not sound right in any way.

[misterpepp]

Imaginary tix on sale Feb 20

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/4/2024 at 10:13 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-25):

Day: T-25, T-21	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	76	162	1277	14835	8.61
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	36	611	1082	56.47
TOTALS:	80	198	1888	15917	11.86

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1163	142	91.07
MTC1:		706	102	55.29
Marcus:		153	14	11.98
Alamo:		208	19	16.29
Other chains:		210	27	16.44

(Only Thursday preview sales accounted for in chart)

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.53x Oppy: $16.1 Million

1.88x The Marvels: $12.38 Million

 

Comps (w/ EA):

2.26x Oppy: $23.77 Million

2.77x The Marvels: $18.3 Million

 

Comps (average EA and THU):

1.9x Oppy: $19.94 Million

2.32x The Marvels: $15.34 Million

 

I am finally comparing all the theaters in my sample, thus the Oppy jump. This is the most pre-sale heavy thing I have tracked yet at T-25, so I am emphasizing @Porthos's point. Do not take comps seriously!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-21):

Day: T-21, T-17	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	76	178	1455	14835	9.81
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	28	639	1082	59.06
TOTALS:	80	206	2094	15917	13.16

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1323	160	90.93
MTC1:		800	94	54.98
Marcus:		164	11	11.27
Alamo:		241	33	16.56
Other chains:		250	40	17.18

(Only Thursday preview sales accounted for in chart)

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.52x Oppy: $16 Million

1.79x The Marvels: $11.78 Million

2.09x MI7 (w/ EA): $18.79 Million

 

Comps (w/ EA):

2.19x Oppy: $23.02 Million

2.57x The Marvels: $16.96 Million

3.37x MI7: $30.29 Million

 

Comps (average EA and THU):

1.85x Oppy: $19.51 Million

2.18x The Marvels: $14.37 Million

2.73x Mi7: $24.54 Million

 

Mandatory warning to not take comps seriously, especially this MI7 comp that was just added. That will be going down a LOT

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-21):

Mandatory warning to not take comps seriously, especially this MI7 comp that was just added. That will be going down a LOT

 

There's a reason why I looked at the JW4 comp locally after it went live last night and just went:

 

 

(probably bring it online in a day or three, but even I have my limits for "do not take seriously" comps )

[dallas]

Madame Web

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-6

Tickets Sold: 114 (+17)

Growth: 18%

% PLF: 36%

5 theaters/21 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.701x) of Mean Girls - $5.53 Million

(0.726x) of Aquaman 2 - $3.27 Million

(4.385x) of Argylle - $7.45 Million

(0.128x) of The Color Purple - $2.3 Million

COMPS AVG - $4.64 Million

 

Falling behind pace here. Should still be good for $5M, but will it go much higher? Im not certain. Will continue to update. 

Edited February 9 by dallas

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 40735/439035 611967.47 2802 shows

Friday - 6930/381995 106281.34 2280 shows

 

It sold like 5K 2 days ago and 6.3K yesterday. Pace it which its going, its shooting for high single digits or even low double digits VD and then drop off the cliff.  

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 48163/449574 726936.89 2874 shows +7428

Thursday - 6058/319514 93782.44 1959 shows

Friday - 7930/384607 121567.90 2296 shows +1000

 

@charlie Jatinder Thursday is even lower. But not by as much as what I thought. But walkups have to be better on friday than thursday for sure.

 

On VD I think it can get to 75K+ by Sunday and Probably close to 120K by end of presales. Walkups could get it to 160-170K. Assuming it skews MTC1 heavily its probably looking 8-8.5m. Let us see how the presales go rest of its run.

[dallas]

Bob Marley: One Love

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-6

Tickets Sold: 197 (+36)

Growth: 22%

% PLF: 0%

5 theaters/18 showtimes

 

Comps:

(0.220x) of The Color Purple - $3.96 Million

 

Really great growth today. Still no great comps though, the only one I have is TCP, which it continues to rise against. I can see this reaching $6M+ on OD. Will likely collapse afterwards though. 

[leoh]

OL debuts on Rotten Tomatoes with only 38%.

 

Paramount lifted OL embargo SIX days before its release (why?????)

 

IMO this may affect more OL opening weekend than its VDay (which I think is being driven mostly by fans who would watch it anyways).

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/bob_marley_one_love/reviews?intcmp=rt-scorecard_tomatometer-reviews

Edited February 9 by leoh

[dallas]

19 minutes ago, leoh said:

OL debuts on Rotten Tomatoes with only 38%.

 

Paramount lifted OL embargo SIX days before its release (why?????)

 

IMO this may affect more OL opening weekend rather than its VDay (which I think is being driven mostly by fans who would watch it anyways).

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/bob_marley_one_love/reviews?intcmp=rt-scorecard_tomatometer-reviews

Yeah clearly the negative reviews did not affect ticket sales at all, at least in my area. Might not bode well in terms of legs, but legs are something this movie wasn't going to have regardless. 

[keysersoze123]

13 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 19772/592604 330519.28  2925 shows

Friday - 8098/582685 137724.32 2715 shows

 

1st time when I tracked this, its VD was very close to Marley. Now its less than half and pace is now < 30% of Marley's pace. I am not convinced its hitting 20m over the long weekend(6 day). 

Madame Web MTC1

VD - 22186/601219 370134.30 2961 shows +2414

Friday - 8655/586424 147272.49 2733 shows +557

 

1st my VD number was incorrect yesterday. It was from the day before. I think VD wise its looking at 4m ish OD. But post that the holds wont be good.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Bob Marley MTC1

VD - 48163/449574 726936.89 2874 shows +7428

Thursday - 6058/319514 93782.44 1959 shows

Friday - 7930/384607 121567.90 2296 shows +1000

 

@charlie Jatinder Thursday is even lower. But not by as much as what I thought. But walkups have to be better on friday than thursday for sure.

 

On VD I think it can get to 75K+ by Sunday and Probably close to 120K by end of presales. Walkups could get it to 160-170K. Assuming it skews MTC1 heavily its probably looking 8-8.5m. Let us see how the presales go rest of its run.

That's a huge jump for VD. Not sure if there is actually momentum or MTC 1 is just catching up late start.

[leoh]

23 minutes ago, dallas said:

Yeah clearly the negative reviews did not affect ticket sales at all, at least in my area. Might not bode well in terms of legs, but legs are something this movie wasn't going to have regardless. 

It was lifted during the night. So we might see effects on coming days. Although I 100% agree with you, OL legs  will be more affected than VDay, its VDay is been driven by fans who would watch it anyways. However, OL first Friday has sold a fraction of its VDay pre sales, so Paramount def miscalculated the reception OL would have.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Bob Marley: One Love T-6: 55.73%

Madame Web T-6: 46.28%

Challengers T-78: 20.2%

Borderlands T-183: 22.92%

White Bird T-239: 13.95%

Moana 2 T-293: 44.73%

 

Lisa Frankenstein T-1: 41.18% Awareness

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 86% chance of 10M

 

Arthur the King T-36: 32.78% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 59% chance of 20M, 38% chance of 30M

Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

 

The First Omen T-57: 27.95% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 32% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 67% chance of 10M, 44% chance of 20M

 

Monkey Man T-57: 24.74% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 32% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M, 11% chance of 20M

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-22 Thursday previews and T-18 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 304

New Sales: 22

Growth: 7.8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 16.9

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 240/9

Late Evening: 57/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 63/7

IMAX: 170/4

VIP: 63/5

4dx: 8/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 373

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 10

Growth: 2.8%

 

Nothing out of the ordinary. Staying with a steady growth pace.

 

If it helps, the previews growth has averaged 8.5% per day for the past week. EA show is 1.8%. It does highlight how they're operating very independently.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-21 Thursday previews and T-17 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 314

New Sales: 10

Growth: 3.3%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 17.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 247/9

Late Evening: 60/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 65/7

IMAX: 179/4

VIP: 62/5

4dx: 8/2

 

EA shows

 

Tickets sold: 379

Showtimes/Theatres: 2

Increase: 6

Growth: 1.6%

 

A little slower today, so not much to comment on specifically on today.

 

Some Dune thoughts that I've debated posting, but, I don't feel too confident in any predictions to make a separate post, so I'm tacking on here.

 

I'm leaning towards the lower estimates as I find we're waiting on a breakout that doesn't appear to be coming. Yes, it's early, but, the percentage of IMAX sales in my sample has remained constant for previews, at around mid 50%. Throw in the EA shows, then total of those and it's about 80% of sales.

 

Now, it's early for general audiences to get on board and all of that, but I feel we should be seeing something.

 

I also find this narrative of whether this will attract audiences outside it's core base to be similar to the dialogue around D&D last year. Good, charismatic cast, content that could appeal to general audiences etc. But, ultimately, despite a lot of marketing, it wasn't successful at crossing over enough.

 

I hope I'm wrong. I chose to track this over a 30+ day manual track because I hoped it would be interesting, and if this is just a slow and predictable finish, it'll be disappointing.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-8

 

Previews

Total Sales: 149

New Sales: 27

Growth: 22%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 7.5

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/2

Late Afternoon: 7/4

Early Evening: 101/7

Late Evening: 41/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 80/7

IMAX: 43/6

VIP: 26/5

Regular: 0/2

 

Comps

1.693x Aquaman 2 for $7.6M

0.710x HG:BoSS for $4.1M

0.378x of The Marvels for $2.5M

Avg: $4.7M

 

A big jump against comps. And with the nature of this being an opening day (and a busy theatre day), I expect the comps to climb, at least until reviews drop.

 

I can see it getting to about $6M in the end. Whether this is an outlier or not, we'll see.

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-7

 

Previews

Total Sales: 196

New Sales: 47

Growth: 32%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 20

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/2

Late Afternoon: 9/4

Early Evening: 139/7

Late Evening: 48/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 105/7

IMAX: 45/6

VIP: 46/5

Regular: 0/2

 

Comps

1.798x Aquaman 2 for $8.1M

0.860x HG:BoSS for $4.9M

0.520x of The Marvels for $3.4M

Avg: $5.5M

 

 

It continues to grow. With One Love doing really well here as well, I'm wondering if it's a case where there's just a stronger Valentine's Day demand up here. Daily growth is in the 25% range for the last few days, and it's hard to see that momentum stopping soon.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

One Love, D2/T-7, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener

Informal track

 

I did another quick count and it's at 155, officially above Madame Web.

 

This one has definitely caught me by surprise. I didn't expect it to perform similarly to US markets, given demographic differences and that Color Purple did so poorly here comparatively.

 

One Love, T-6, western GTA (southern Ontario), Wednesday opener

Informal track

 

Sales now up to 435, almost tripling yesterday. If I keep tracking this, I'll need to decide if I do it in a more structured way, as it's too high at this point.

[Porthos]

On 2/8/2024 at 12:51 AM, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22950	24723	1773	7.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

76

 

T-22 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	92.88		393	1909		0/257	34292/36201	5.27%		11474	15.45%		17.89m
JWD	98.01		41	1809		0/179	22839/24647	7.34%		2915	60.82%		17.64m
Thor 4	35.04		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	10.45%		10.16m
BP2	29.81		138	5948		1/294	31071/37019	16.07%		16800	10.55%		8.35m
Ava 2	95.27		172	1861		0/142	19477/21338	8.72%		8986	19.73%		16.20m
AM3	44.73		119	3964		0/235	28592/32556	12.18%		10475	16.93%		7.83m
GOTG3	58.83		105	3014		0/206	26655/29669	10.16%		10750	16.49%		10.29m
Fast X	227.31		16	780		0/182	26942/27722	2.81%		4122	43.01%		17.05m
Indy 5	198.10		48	895		0/124	18626/19521	4.58%		4767	37.19%		14.26m
Oppy	212.08		36	836		0/53	7414/8250	10.13%		10750	16.49%		22.27m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      483/8153  [5.92% sold]
Matinee:    56/2762  [2.03% | 3.16% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:          616/814  [75.68% sold] [+3 tickets]
Thr:    1157/23909  [4.84% sold] [+73 tickets]
PLF:     1496/9813  [15.25% | 84.38% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

One quick note.  One of the DBOX showings I track went from zero sales to sold out tonight (20 tickets, to be exact).  This is the sort of red flag that I normally chalk up to theater side error and monitor for a couple of days before including it, but it is just  plausible enough (last showing of the night at one of the busier theaters in town is just the sort of thing a flock of nerds cinephiles might just go ahead and do) that I'm counting it for now. If it gets reversed, I'll note it in the corresponding daily update and just backdate my home sheet records.

 

(if we're being honest, at 20 extra tickets can't say I care as much as I might for a "real" suspect sellout)

 

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	22888	24716	1828	7.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

55

 

T-21 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

Batman	63.45		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		11757	15.55%		15.49m
TGM	79.51		390	2299		0/257	33923/36222	6.35%		11474	15.93%		15.31m
JWD	97.23		71	1880		0/184	22927/24807	7.58%		2915	62.71%		17.50m
Thor 4	34.55		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	10.78%		10.02m
BP2	29.98		150	6098		1/294	30924/37022	16.47%		16800	10.88%		8.39m
Ava 2	90.05		169	2030		0/142	19308/21338	9.51%		8986	20.34%		15.31m
AM3	44.94		104	4068		0/235	28488/32556	12.50%		10475	17.45%		7.86m
GOTG3	58.83		93	3107		0/206	26559/29666	10.47%		10750	17.00%		10.30m
Fast X	232.87		5	785		0/182	26937/27722	2.83%		4122	44.35%		17.46m
Indy 5	196.14		37	932		0/124	18589/19521	4.77%		4767	38.35%		14.12m
Oppy	212.56		24	860		0/53	7390/8250	10.42%		10750	17.00%		22.32m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       491/8153  [6.02% sold]
Matinee:    59/2762  [2.14% | 3.23% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:         616/814  [75.68% sold] [+0 tickets]
Thr:    1212/23902  [5.07% sold] [+55 tickets]
PLF:     1543/9813  [15.72% | 84.41% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Couple of notes. 

 

That DBOX showing I mentioned last night is still sold out, so if it is an error, it's one that hasn't been caught yet.  But, kinda suspect it's legit.

 

Secondly, this was the first day of full sales for The Batman, so I threw it in the hopper, even though the comp will be coming down PDQ.  Speaking of The Batman, toying with adding a separate EA IMAX exclusive comp block for it and Dune: Part Two.  For those who don't recall, The Batman had two separate preview slots:  An IMAX exclusive Tuesday and then an All PLFs Welcome Wednesday.  It'll take a bit of trawling through the forum's old thread for me to compile the data, as the history for The Batman spreadsheet was on an older computer that I don't have easy access to.  But having an honest to goodness (near) 100% identical comp is nearly too tempting for me to pass up.  Just have to set aside the time to compile the dailies for the rest of the run.

 

Not much else to add.  Now it's just Waiting For Godot Goodell.

[vafrow]

Kung Fu Panda 4 is up for sale on MTC4. 

 

I likely won't do a track on it, and if I do, I'll wait until after Valentine's Day.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 is up for sale on MTC4. 

 

I likely won't do a track on it, and if I do, I'll wait until after Valentine's Day.

 

Single screen presales (5 and 4 showings, each including 1 3d) at my 2 locals.  It is not being presold as an expected animated breakout - aka, even at the family chain, this film will need to presell to get more space before opening week - it's not just being given it.