The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Tinalera]

Just did Toronto- 130 plus shows I just counted for 4 theatres. Will try and get Montreal done later today.

 

Dune part 2

Toronto Ontario Canada

Thurs Feb 29 Fri Mar 1 (T-2)

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	46	2403	9891	12294	0.1954
Fri	4	91	4538	19734	24272	0.1869

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Just did Toronto- 130 plus shows I just counted for 4 theatres. Will try and get Montreal done later today.

 

Dune part 2

Toronto Ontario Canada

Thurs Feb 29 Fri Mar 1 (T-2)

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	46	2403	9891	12294	0.1954
Fri	4	91	4538	19734	24272	0.1869

Can you try some comps or provide some perspective on the number.

[Eric is Quiet]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

LOL. Quorum being a joke as usual. They think only 25% chance of 50m 🙂 

Except it isn't. @whatsupdoc owns Quorum, and he shared projections of 62-69M opening for Dune as of last week. And I'm sure when he updates his stuff again, it will rise to the 70s that everybody else is projecting. This is just my data showing what movies that have an awareness in the 50s are like, which is not scientific at all. And once we get the final updates for Dune this coming Friday, it'll probably go up to 60%+, which will be more in line with what others' data is. So there. 

 

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/6WOFTR-02.23.24.pdf

[Tinalera]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Can you try some comps or provide some perspective on the number.

Ill see what I can dig up that might be comparable when a get some moments. Lifes been keeping me busy lately lol

 

I wasnt sure what would be comparable to Dune-Ill have to dig way back to see if I can find original Dune ones-Im not sure if MCU would be same, but heres a couple from Toronto durings T-2

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	39	1979	6467	8446	0.2344
Fri	4	70	2035	15328	17363	0.1172
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	30	1184	7221	8405	0.1408
Fri	3	45	1071	12358	13429	0.0797

 

Antman Quantum comp

 

 

	T2	# theatre	#show		Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	36	2518	7614	10132	0.2485
	Fri	4	37	2248	7288	9536	0.2357
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Quebec	Thurs	4	29	1294	6783	8077	0.1602
	Fri	4	23	1078	5219	6297	0.1711

 

Also only a T-7 for Barbie as I think that was when I was hitting my burnout phase, so apologies for nothing closer, but still it gives some perspective (Didnt do Oppy)

 

T-7		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	25	2187	4715	6902	0.3168
	Fri	4	19	2730	2643	5373	0.5080

 

Going back I may not have tracked Dune, or its in the older thread. 

Edited February 28 by Tinalera

[ChiefBrody]

1 hour ago, Eric Atreides said:

Quorum Updates

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-30: 51.32% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 94% chance of 30M, 87% chance of 40M, 81% chance of 50M, 62% chance of 60M, 56% chance of 70M, 37% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 75% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 100M

 

So the numbers for GxK continue to rise yet @Shawn Robbins refuses to budge on his prediction of a $35m OW and $78m total domestic gross. Doesn’t make any sense at all…

[leoh]

44 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Except it isn't. @whatsupdoc owns Quorum, and he shared projections of 62-69M opening for Dune as of last week. And I'm sure when he updates his stuff again, it will rise to the 70s that everybody else is projecting. This is just my data showing what movies that have an awareness in the 50s are like, which is not scientific at all. And once we get the final updates for Dune this coming Friday, it'll probably go up to 60%+, which will be more in line with what others' data is. So there. 

 

https://thequorum.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/6WOFTR-02.23.24.pdf

exactly.

And still, according to Deadline, Warner Bros itself is projecting it to get 65M+

 

https://deadline.com/2024/02/dune-part-two-box-office-worldwide-projection-1235839654/

 

 

 

 

[ThatWaluigiDude]

3 minutes ago, ChiefBrody said:

So the numbers for GxK continue to rise yet @Shawn Robbins refuses to budge on his prediction of a $35m OW and $78m total domestic gross. Doesn’t make any sense at all…

I do think it will do much more than that, but there isn't much we can do with the data we have right now until pre-sales actually starts and we see how the awareness translates to $$$

[Eric is Quiet]

4 minutes ago, ChiefBrody said:

So the numbers for GxK continue to rise yet @Shawn Robbins refuses to budge on his prediction of a $35m OW and $78m total domestic gross. Doesn’t make any sense at all…

No offense, but antagonizing Shawn, the guy in charge of the whole forum, like this does not help your favors, derails this thread, and is frankly pretty darn rude and disrespectful. People are allowed to have negative opinions on movies you are excited for and you have to respect that. Either ignore Shawn's projections, or else you will lead me with no other choice but to give you warning points.

[leoh]

3 hours ago, ChiefBrody said:

So the numbers for GxK continue to rise yet @Shawn Robbins refuses to budge on his prediction of a $35m OW and $78m total domestic gross. Doesn’t make any sense at all…

 

why should @Shawn Robbinsdo that? To please you? Lol

 

the last two monster-verse movies barely crossed 100M in the US.

 

monster-verse is more of an international thing.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 28 by leoh

[ChiefBrody]

25 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

No offense, but antagonizing Shawn, the guy in charge of the whole forum, like this does not help your favors, derails this thread, and is frankly pretty darn rude and disrespectful. People are allowed to have negative opinions on movies you are excited for and you have to respect that. Either ignore Shawn's projections, or else you will lead me with no other choice but to give you warning points.

How is it rude or disrespectful to call out publicly published material that doesn’t line up with the current information at hand? 

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, ChiefBrody said:

How is it rude or disrespectful to call out publicly published material that doesn’t line up with the current information at hand? 

 

For one thing. Shawn doesn't update numbers daily.  Secondly, IIRC, he already said the initial GxK forecast was published a bit early by mistake and thus it might not have had all the info available he could have used for an initial forecast.

 

But, mostly, tone matters dude.  Politeness goes a long way in this day and age.  You can make your arguments in a non-confrontational way.

 

More simply, there is absolutely nothing to "call out" here.  At all.

 

[M37]

17 minutes ago, ChiefBrody said:

How is it rude or disrespectful to call out publicly published material that doesn’t line up with the current information at hand? 

Because there is more survey/soft tracking information available than just quorum, and BOP/Shawn’s long range forecast - which relies on said tracking - is typically more accurate 

 

It’s fine to disagree*, but nobody at present is “right” or “wrong”, it’s mostly speculative. People being aware of film’s release doesn’t necessarily make them interested in paying to see it, especially a franchise film for which one can argue doesn’t add much over the previous installments, and in a market that is increasingly hostile to content that isn’t good (aka has poor reviews). 

 

[*personally I think GvK is a sleeping giant (pun intended) and am eyeing a $60M+ OW, but that’s more a gut feeling than anything else, and yet won’t be shocked if the appetite isn’t there and it falls well short for precisely the reasons mentioned above]

[leoh]

16 minutes ago, M37 said:

Because there is more survey/soft tracking information available than just quorum, and BOP/Shawn’s long range forecast - which relies on said tracking - is typically more accurate 

 

It’s fine to disagree*, but nobody at present is “right” or “wrong”, it’s mostly speculative. People being aware of film’s release doesn’t necessarily make them interested in paying to see it, especially a franchise film for which one can argue doesn’t add much over the previous installments, and in a market that is increasingly hostile to content that isn’t good (aka has poor reviews). 

 

[*personally I think GvK is a sleeping giant (pun intended) and am eyeing a $60M+ OW, but that’s more a gut feeling than anything else, and yet won’t be shocked if the appetite isn’t there and it falls well short for precisely the reasons mentioned above]

 

the last two WB monster-verse movies barely crossed 100M. It’s not a big deal in the US, it’s more of an international thing. Since it was lunched, the monster-verse is declining every installment:

 

Godzilla (2014) 200M

Kong Skull island (2017) 168M

Godzilla King of Monsters (2019) 110M

Godzilla X Kong (2021) 100M

So based on facts @Shawn Robbins projection is very much reasonable.
 

i just don’t know why some of your guys are taking a declining franchise like monster-verse as it was a big deal lol

Edited February 28 by leoh

[dallas]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

exactly.

And still, according to Deadline, Warner Bros itself is projecting it to get 65M+

 

https://deadline.com/2024/02/dune-part-two-box-office-worldwide-projection-1235839654/

 

 

 

 

That's obviously a lowball

[jeffthehat]

On 2/27/2024 at 12:46 PM, jeffthehat said:

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-2	1608	11158	62	+11.7%
Fri	T-3	2298	22550	132	+12.1%

Thursday Comps

1.88x The Marvels T-2= $12.4m

1.92x HG BoSS T-2 = $11.1m

Friday Comps

2.46x The Marvels T-3 = $36.8m

2.37x HG BoSS T-3 = $31.5m

 

Avg Thu = $11.8m

Avg Fri = $34.2m

--

Pulled at the usual time today. Growing better than I expected in the home stretch. We'll see if it continues. 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-1	1836	11158	62	+14.2%
Fri	T-2	2860	30713	170	+24.4%

Thursday Comps

1.85x The Marvels T-1= $12.2m

1.94x HG BoSS T-1 = $11.1m

Friday Comps

1.77x The Marvels T-2 = $24.9m

1.69x HG BoSS T-2 = $22.4m

2.29x Wonka T-2 = $25.0m

 

Avg Thu = $11.65m

Avg Fri = $24.1m

---

Baffling drop in my Friday comps. May have something to do with the way I was tracking added showtimes back then (was checking manually, probably not often enough). Could also be the sales level this is at and the effect of added showtimes/blocked seats (this chain has a lot of blocked seats counted as sales and adds a crap ton of shows week of). 

 

Regardless, was thinking ~$36m Thu/Fri before EA, so nice to see the data pointing to it. 

 

Edited February 28 by jeffthehat

[jeffthehat]

.

Edited February 28 by jeffthehat
mistake post

[whatsupdoc]

Here is The Quorum's latest take on DUNE.  While awareness is a big piece of the puzzle, interest is also important. And  interest in DUNE is spiking at the right time. 

 

The Quorum's official forecast will be published Friday morning, but with one more fielding to go, it looks like it will be above $70M. If the numbers go up in tomorrow's fielding, the forecast could go as high as $80M. 

 

Survey tracking has been around for decades. But The Quorum is the first to make it available to the general public. For many of you it's new, which means it may be hard to interpret or you might have some questions.  If you do, please feel free to shoot us a note at hello@thequorum.com

 

 

[keysersoze123]

On Zilla, it could go both ways. not sure if minus one is plus or minus for this movie. That said its not a difficult movie to sell and opening > 35m should not be that difficult. Anyway we will know the potential once presales start for the movie. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1297	1353	95.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

816

2887

28.26%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

707

2507

28.20%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4073	410	23597	17.26%	13	140

 

1.133	Oppenheimer T-2	11.90M
0.903	Guardians T-2	15.81M
0.771	Ant-Man 3 T-2	13.49M
0.759	Avatar 2 T-2	12.90M
0.513	Thor L&T T-2	14.88M
0.343	Doctor Strange 2 T-2	12.35M
0.859	Batman T-2*	18.56M
1.992	Dune Part 1 T-2	10.16M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

 

Drop from yesterday. Definitely saw a boost yesterday due to strong WoM from EA showings. Still a good result today, but @M37 was probably right in saying that it wasn't the start of a new trajectory (at least here...)

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1297	1353	95.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

882

2886

30.56%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

794

2509

31.65%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4588	515	24695	18.58%	13	148

 

1.117	Oppenheimer T-1	11.73M
0.891	Guardians T-1	15.59M
0.803	Ant-Man 3 T-1	14.06M
0.776	Avatar 2 T-1	13.20M
0.507	Thor L&T T-1	14.69M
0.358	Doctor Strange 2 T-1	12.89M
0.840	Batman T-1*	18.14M
2.002	Dune Part 1 T-1	10.21M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-2 Thursday

339 Showings

14843

+1628

40629

ATP:

17.53

0.642	Barbie T-2	14.31M
1.737	Oppenheimer T-2	18.24M

0.966	Guardians T-2	16.90M
1.580	Avatar T-2	26.87M
0.778	Thor L&T T-2	22.56M
0.578	Doctor Strange 2 T-2	20.80M
0.928	Batman T-2*	16.33M
2.929	Dune Part 1 T-2	14.94M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-3 Friday

523 Showings

18233

+2530

62056

ATP:

17.12

0.646	Barbie T-3	31.12M
1.472	Oppenheimer T-3	33.14M

1.173	Guardians T-3	35.90M
1.467	Avatar T-3	53.12M
1.054	Thor L&T T-3	42.76M
0.705	Doctor Strange 2 T-3	38.57M
0.977	Batman T-3	34.28M
2.620	Dune Part 1 T-3	32.48M

 

T-4 Saturday

542 Showings

21165

+2788

64844

ATP:

16.70

0.742	Barbie T-4	35.46M
1.457	Oppenheimer T-4	38.69M

1.234	Guardians T-4	47.98M
1.596	Avatar T-4	70.77M
1.288	Thor L&T T-4	54.23M
0.772	Doctor Strange 2 T-4	44.64M
1.081	Batman T-4	46.78M
3.111	Dune Part 1 T-4	42.68M

 

T-5 Sunday

484 Showings

14715

+1850

58471

ATP:

16.72

0.666	Barbie T-5	29.10M
1.404	Oppenheimer T-5	32.56M

1.468	Guardians T-5	46.15M
1.684	Avatar T-5	61.57M
1.450	Thor L&T T-5	47.14M
0.927	Doctor Strange 2 T-5	36.04M
1.432	Batman T-5	48.90M
3.127	Dune Part 1 T-5	30.58M

 

Huge jump here at Drafthouse, but it has been overperforming the whole time so it should be looked at as an outlier.

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-1 Thursday

351 Showings

16343

+1500

42086

ATP:

17.40

0.635	Barbie T-1	14.17M
1.608	Oppenheimer T-1	16.88M

0.950	Guardians T-1	16.62M
1.555	Avatar T-1	26.44M
0.745	Thor L&T T-1	21.60M
0.585	Doctor Strange 2 T-1	21.05M
0.906	Batman T-1*	15.94M
2.857	Dune Part 1 T-1	14.57M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-2 Friday

559 Showings

20920

+2687

66343

ATP:

16.95

0.647	Barbie T-2	31.20M
1.418	Oppenheimer T-2	31.92M

1.169	Guardians T-2	35.77M
1.479	Avatar T-2	53.52M
1.026	Thor L&T T-2	41.60M
0.718	Doctor Strange 2 T-2	39.31M
0.957	Batman T-2	33.58M
2.532	Dune Part 1 T-2	31.39M

 

T-3 Saturday

577 Showings

24496

+3331

69064

ATP:

16.53

0.747	Barbie T-3	35.71M
1.453	Oppenheimer T-3	38.56M

1.244	Guardians T-3	48.35M
1.632	Avatar T-3	72.35M
1.288	Thor L&T T-3	54.23M
0.809	Doctor Strange 2 T-3	46.76M
1.066	Batman T-3	46.12M
3.075	Dune Part 1 T-3	42.18M

 

T-4 Sunday

520 Showings

16784

+2069

62863

ATP:

16.61

0.659	Barbie T-4	28.80M
1.348	Oppenheimer T-4	31.27M

1.455	Guardians T-4	45.72M
1.743	Avatar T-4	63.72M
1.450	Thor L&T T-4	47.13M
0.944	Doctor Strange 2 T-4	36.70M
1.386	Batman T-4	47.31M
3.096	Dune Part 1 T-4	30.27M