The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Scubasteve716]

4 hours ago, leoh said:

 

WB can’t choose anything, the solo owner is Legendary and they do whatever they want with their property. 

 

You could try to read variety article that I mentioned. They explain the how process that made Legendary leave WB and sign with Sony.  

Yes they can lol you should maybe read some articles from the trades about it. But I’m also not seeing how this is relevant in the tracking thread so I guess I’ll drop it. 

[leoh]

7 minutes ago, Scubasteve716 said:

Yes they can lol you should maybe read some articles from the trades about it. But I’m also not seeing how this is relevant in the tracking thread so I guess I’ll drop it. 

Legendary is Dune solo owner, if you can’t understand what this means I’m very sorry for you.  

[leoh]

25 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

3/8 openers T-2

Movie	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Kung Fu Panda 4	588	22520	148	+24.3%
Cabrini	235	3965	39	+6.3%
Imaginary	136	4395	48	+10.6%

Kung Fu Panda 4 Comps

0.24x One Love Wed T-2 = $3.3m

0.44x Madame Web Wed T-2 = $3.0m

5.44x Lisa Frankenstein T-2 = $3.3m

 

AVG = $3.2m

---

Good jump for KFP4

 

it seems its pre sales are jumping everywhere in the US 🤩

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, leoh said:

he has never made a single mistake regarding pre sales start in the US.

 

and there’s no chance GxB is going to have tickets on sale this week, it simply doesn’t have even enough shows set to put tickets on sale.

 

I wasn't aware he was a known quantity. I honestly thought it was a crypto account.

 

And it looks like he was right on this. Kudos to him. Happy to have this start after KFP. One less concurrent track.

 

We will be getting Fall Guy and GxK starting on concurrent days, and I'll be getting updates on Ghostbusters showtimes, so probably a busy couple of days.

[leoh]

12 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

I wasn't aware he was a known quantity. I honestly thought it was a crypto account.

 

And it looks like he was right on this. Kudos to him. Happy to have this start after KFP. One less concurrent track.

 

We will be getting Fall Guy and GxK starting on concurrent days, and I'll be getting updates on Ghostbusters showtimes, so probably a busy couple of days.

no problem.

 

keep up doing your great work here.

It seems you have been again the first one to see a movie being a hit before anyone else. 

 

you have been reporting big numbers for panda for a while contrasting to everyone trackings. This recalls me your tracks showing Madame Web with 6M and One Love with 14M and your: “nah” lol

Edited March 5 by leoh

[vafrow]

https://www.cinoche.com/films/box-office

 

Apparently, Dune 2 made $1,862,192 from Quebec.

 

I'm assuming that's Canadian dollars, so it's probably about the same per capita as we saw over north america, probably a little less, but it was 66% ahead of what Oppenheimer made it's opening weekend.

 

I think only @Tinalera does check ins on Montreal occassionally, but useful context for the future potentially.

[jeffthehat]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

Is it good for Imaginary?

Total sales volume and growth rate look bad, sadly. Would guess <$1m previews from this 

[Eric Prime]

Moderation

 

Not the Legendary Pictures thread. I'm going to move some of these posts to a more appropriate place.

[vafrow]

To put some of the current Dune hype in context, one of the subreddits I check in on is r/Cineplex, and any time there's a big film, you'll almost always see people asking in that sub why there aren't any showtimes beyond Thursday. The regulars there get annoyed with answering the question, especially with pinned posts explaining the showtime schedule.

 

This week has been relentless with people inquiring about Dune. 

 

Well, the flagship theatre downtown Toronto just put up showtimes, probably an hour ago max. The early evening show is 70% sold out. Late evening probably 30-40%. Saturday is seeing similar. I expect things to be sold out by morning. 

 

This happened with Oppenheimer, and it didn't let up for weeks.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/4/2024 at 7:05 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-16

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
478	2337	96731	2.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

129

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

8

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-16

(0.481x) of Dune 2 $4.45M  

 

Comps average: $4.45M

FLORIDA 

 

Ghostbusters

 

Thursday 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
478	2406	96731	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

69

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-15

(0.482x) of Dune 2 $4.45M  

 

Comps average: $4.45M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/4/2024 at 7:10 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
527	1991	103166	1.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

371

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

41

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

627

 

COMPS

T-3

 

(2.049x) of Migration $3.07M

(0.608x) of TMNT $2.34M

 

COMP AVG: $2.71M

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
527	2617	103166	2.5%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

626

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

830

 

COMPS

T-2

 

(2.231x) of Migration $3.35M

 

COMP AVG: $3.35M

 

Migration is the only comp that's pointing to $3M+ so I'll just stick with that. Overall excellent day in Florida. 

[M37]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

Anyway, with a slightly shorter pre-sale window than expected for GxK, BOSS might be one of the better comps for GxK.  Exact same number of days of pre-sales, franchise property frontloading, but still a GA-ish skew.  GxK will probably, probably, be more backloaded, but have to tell y'alls something.  Exact same number of days of pre-sales goes a decent way for covering up sins.

 

Is gonna hurt the RotB comps for a while though, as that went on sale at T-29 exactly two weeks longer.  JWD becomes practically worthless until deeeeep into run given it had nearly a whole more month of pre-sales (starting at T-42).  Even populist/GA skewing franchise entries like AtSV and Black Adam/John Wick 4 get hurt a bit given they had six to nine more days of pre-sales.

 

To put all of the above slightly differently, not gonna see a U-curve in pre-sales so much as a V bounce or even a ✓ takeoff where there is a few days of deceleration before things pick back up again.

 

Ah well, can't make things too easy, I suppose.

 

(as I check my charts, also have FB3 at a similar length (one extra day of pre-sales which is practically nothing), but all sorts of problems with that comp locally as the Fantastic Beasts tends to do better locally than it does nationwide)

I would take the over on the HG:BoSS comp fwiw, as even with the shorter sales period in which to bank fan sales, the final week growth was only OK, not on the higher end

 

So a 17-day blitz of a sales run, for a known IP but with potential for strong walk-ups? Time to dust off a rarely used comp 

Spoiler

 

 

[Porthos]

13 minutes ago, M37 said:

I would take the over on the HG:BoSS comp fwiw, as even with the shorter sales period in which to bank fan sales, the final week growth was only OK, not on the higher end

 

So a 17-day blitz of a sales run, for a known IP but with potential for strong walk-ups? Time to dust off a rarely used comp 

  Hide contents

 

 

 

Yeah,  I dunno 'bout a LTBC comp as the week+ headstart might tip the scale a bit.  OTOH, maybe by about the fourth or so day of sales it could be pretty interesting comp.  ATP also rears its ugly head for such an old comp.

 

But, then again, I'm of the belief that comps tend to have a shelf life of about three years, so LTBC does just make it in by a few months.

 

I'll keep it in mind, with some sort of ATP adjustment if it looks reasonable-ish.

 

[M37]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Yeah,  I dunno 'bout a LTBC comp as the week+ headstart might tip the scale a bit.  OTOH, maybe by about the fourth or so day of sales it could be pretty interesting comp.  ATP also rears its ugly head for such an old comp.

 

But, then again, I'm of the belief that comps tend to have a shelf life of about three years, so LTBC does just make it in by a few months.

 

I'll keep it in mind, with some sort of ATP adjustment if it looks reasonable-ish.

 

I was only semi serious about that comp, given my previous “do not sure” declaration (and comments about GxK generally)

 

But actually looking at the numbers, Sacto was a bit of late bloomer for HG:BoSS, so that comp may work better for your market than others 

 

Setting aside the sales period length, would also suggest ATSV and especially Black Adam as potential viable comps for GxK

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/4/2024 at 5:30 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	82	97	439	11420	3.84

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		31	8	7.06
MTC1:		250	46	56.95
Marcus:		53	13	12.07
Alamo:		28	9	6.38
Other chains:		108	29	24.6

 

Comps:

1.01x Wonka: $3.53 Million

1.47x Wish (TUE): $2.64 Million

1.13x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.5 Million

2.6x Migration: $3.9 Million

2.83x Trolls (THU): $3.68 Million

 

Average: $3.45 Million

 

Continues to grow against every comp not named Migration (which had the quirk of being on a Thursday that many students had off for winter break, which is not the case in Minnesota right now for spring break). Can see the average (which, again, is being brought down by Wish, a comp with much lower ATP) ending up close to $4 million if it keeps growing like this.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	125	99	538	15906	3.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		47	16	8.74
MTC1:		278	28	51.67
Marcus:		83	30	15.43
Alamo:		34	6	6.32
Other chains:		143	35	26.58

 

Comps:

1.05x Wonka: $3.69 Million

1.59x Wish (TUE): $2.87 Million

1.19x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.68 Million

2.31x Migration: $3.46 Million

2.72x Trolls (THU): $3.53 Million

 

Average: $3.45 Million

 

Funky stuff at one of my theaters, with a suspect drop in tickets there, but seems legit for now so I'll keep it. All my comps circling around 3.5 and the average spitting out that exact number seems almost too true to be perfect, but it's such a nice round number that's what I'll go with for now... 

Edited March 6 by abracadabra1998
I had messed up the Haunted Mansion comp and now the above statement isn't true anymore, but it sounded so nice I'll leave it anyways

[abracadabra1998]

On 3/4/2024 at 5:43 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	28	17	75	2540	2.95

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		55	15	73.33
Marcus:		8	2	10.67
Alamo:		5	0	6.67
Other chains:		7	0	9.33

 

Comps:

0.73x Thanksgiving: $730k

0.32x Exorcist Believer: $915k

1.09x Last Voyage of the Demeter: $815k

0.56x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $695k

 

Average: $790k

 

Did go up against every comp, which is a good sign, but at lower number sales overall there is a higher degree of variance. So beware of too many conclusions without seeing how the next few days play out.

 

Cabrini (T-3):

Day: T-3	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 17 theaters	23	33	282	1931	14.6

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		92	16	32.62
Marcus:		53	5	18.79
Alamo:		0	0	0
Other chains:		137	12	48.58

 

Comps:

1.49x After Death: $595k

0.47x Chosen S4 Eps 1-3: $675k

1.15x Chosen S4 Eps 4-6: $895k

1.43x Chosen S4 Eps 7-8: $1.09 Million

2.09x The Shift (w/ EA): $780k

 

Average: $805k

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Imaginary (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	35	15	90	3165	2.84

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		64	9	71.11
Marcus:		8	0	8.89
Alamo:		5	0	5.56
Other chains:		13	6	14.44

 

Comps:

0.63x Thanksgiving: $630k

0.33x Exorcist Believer: $940k

0.87x Last Voyage of the Demeter: $655k

0.5x Talk To Me (w/ EA): $625k

 

Average: $710k

 

Just doing absolutely nothing here.

 

Cabrini (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	30	17	299	2482	12.05

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		95	3	31.77
Marcus:		55	2	18.39
Alamo:		3	3	1
Other chains:		146	9	48.83

 

Comps:

1.29x After Death: $515k

Chosen S4 Eps 1-3: Missed

Chosen S4 Eps 4-6: Missed

Chosen S4 Eps 7-8: Missed

1.74x The Shift (w/ EA): $645k

 

Not at all seeing the breakout others mentioned as a possibility, but it's true Thursday previews are very limited here.

 

[titanic2187]

7 hours ago, leoh said:

I’ll explain you: 

 

You have the estimate numbers given by studios on Sunday. Afterwards you’ll have the actuals on Monday. So every country has an estimate box office followed by actuals next day or so.

 

Giving you an example: Madame Web OW Sony estimate was 2.9M, then the he actual ended up being $2,864,812.

 

Hope you get it.     

But if the studio or comscore never released an actual figure like Sony, the hell they “verify” this is an actual?  You still don’t get it, the final actual number given by WB is above 100m, and that is the way they reported their international actual with the figure ending 000. 

[leoh]

11 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-2):

Day: T-2	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	125	99	538	15906	3.38

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		47	16	8.74
MTC1:		278	28	51.67
Marcus:		83	30	15.43
Alamo:		34	6	6.32
Other chains:		143	35	26.58

 

Comps:

1.05x Wonka: $3.69 Million

1.59x Wish (TUE): $2.87 Million

1.28x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.96 Million

2.31x Migration: $3.46 Million

2.72x Trolls (THU): $3.53 Million

 

Average: $3.5 Million

 

Funky stuff at one of my theaters, with a suspect drop in tickets there, but seems legit for now so I'll keep it. All my comps circling around 3.5 and the average spitting out that exact number seems almost too true to be perfect, but it's such a nice round number that's what I'll go with for now... 

 

 

a possible 4M/4.5M in previews?????

[leoh]

Dune Part Two will lose the #1 spot this weekend according to Variety.

 

The fourth “Kung Fu Panda” movie looks to collect $45 million to $50 million in its opening weekend.
 

Meanwhile, “Dune: Part Two” is projected to add around $40 million.

 

Based on theaters estimates, initial ticket sales should improve upon its immediate predecessors, 2016’s “Kung Fu Panda 3” ($41 million debut) and 2011’s “Kung Fu Panda 2” ($47.6 million).

 

It has outstandingly speed up its sales pace over “Dune Part Two” for the upcoming weekend.

 

“Kung Fu Panda 4” should benefit from the dearth of family films at the box office.

 

 

 

 

 

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-kung-fu-panda-4-opening-weekend-projection-dune-2-1235930925/

Edited March 6 by leoh

[NoobSaibot]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ummmm...  @misterpepp is as close to official as we can get and I for one massively appreciate them letting us know current plans.

 

Yes, until the PR blast actually goes out, current plans can change.  But, guess what?  Ticket sales rollouts can change even after a PR blast, if rare.

 

...

 

Just about as rare as pepp being wrong about a planned ticket drop.

 

ETA:::

 

In fact, as I scan their posts, I don't see a mention of GxK's ticket drop date from them.  So why did we think it was today then, anyway?

 

8 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Cryptic’s date is correct, looks like the 13th.

 

As Porthos mentioned, I never posted a date for GxK until now (Not that I’m devaluing the contributions of others to this thread). I’m pretty sure the ticketing dates posted here, both by myself and others, have been right way more than they’ve been wrong.

 

I think there's been a misunderstanding. I wasn't accusing anybody in this thread of having incorrect information, however in circles outside of BOT, it was believed that tickets went on sale today. I was mostly chiding myself. Apologies for any confusion, as my comment was directed at nobody in particular....here, on these boards.

 

In the future, I will be more mindful of what I say and with more context, as I did not mean to cause a tizzy. It was meant as a passing remark and nothing accusatory.