The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, JustLurking said:

What the fuck happened to horror this year? Last few years it seemed like it was one of the few easy bets left in post-covid market. Now they're just all tanking.

A number of the studio horror titles this year have been cheap schlock and movies of that variety rarely broke out big even 10-15-20 years ago. I think once more clearly polished efforts arrive like A Quiet Place things will start looking better.

[el sid]

Twisters tickets are on sale! 

 

And has already sold 10 tickets in "my" AMC in NY and 38 in LA ^^.

Edited June 6 by el sid

[vafrow]

Both Twisters and Minions are up for sale on MTC4.

 

Twisters looks like it's going to get a fair amount of Wednesday EA showings.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Shawn Robbins]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think its impossible for it to go that low. I expect True friday at this point to beat true friday of BB3. Obviously the saturday boost would be way less and so it will lose to BB3 on sat/sun (that opened on MLK weekend and so Sunday was boosted). I am thinking mid 50s OW but let us see how walkups go tomorrow. 

Tend to agree here. We had the pinpoints and chart paywalled on Substack yesterday, but BB4 was $52.6m with ~$5.5m Thu baked in.

 

The studio(s) are understandably cautious in putting $30m out there to outlets given the recent string of under-performers, but things look really good for the movie right now.

[TalismanRing]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick And Dirty Bad Boys: Ride or Die Sacramento Report [T-1]

 

Yeeeeeah, not as good here in SacTown as other places.  Most of the higher comps either kept pace or fell slightly.  Likely Sacramento is under-performing/don't have great comps online.  But Sacramento is probably pointing somewhere between 4.5m - 5.5m.  Probably.  Just have to see how good walkups are tomorrow as well as look to other comps.

 

As usual, no update at the mid-point, so next and final update will be approx 4:30pm PT.

 

Far better than at my NYC local.  Must be a lot of Chris Rock fans in the area b/c as of Thur at noon it's sold a bit more than 1/3rd the amount BB3 [42 v 121] sold Wed at 7pm and 17% of what BB3 sold Thur at 4pm [236]   

 

Hope Will's fans are just avoiding that $2+ Ticketmaster fee on top of their $18-24+ tickets and choosing to walk up.

[kayumanggi]

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

27 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

That sounds about right for the film.

 

6M previews for BB looks good rn, hopefully that can get the film over 50M. It should have a smaller IM than BBFL (what an unfortunate acronym) as a summer release but not by much ideally.

 

As for Twisters, I'm still not completely on board with starting tickets this far out but I'm hoping for at least 55M opening, but preferably north of 60M. Let's see how the day goes.

[abracadabra1998]

Fuck. The Alamo in the Twin Cities just shut down. In addition to just any theater, especially any as good as Drafthouse, closure sucking, it also messes up my comps quite a bit because it’s such a heavy pre-sales type of theater. This sucks man 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

13 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Yes! 🤩😎

[AniNate]

24 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

As for Twisters, I'm still not completely on board with starting tickets this far out but I'm hoping for at least 55M opening, but preferably north of 60M. Let's see how the day goes.

 

The question is why not start this far out. I've asked multiple times in this thread and haven't gotten a straight answer about how exactly early presales could be a bad thing from a studio's perspective, besides making trackers nervous if they open soft. Soft sales are still better than zero sales from where I'm sitting.

 

 

Edited June 6 by AniNate

[kayumanggi]

 

[Flip]

Twisters is selling ok, will probably come around how much DM4 sold yesterday, but since I track NYC/NJ, I’d expect it to underindex here

[misterpepp]

Horizon Chapter 1 on sale June 12

[keysersoze123]

55 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Fuck. The Alamo in the Twin Cities just shut down. In addition to just any theater, especially any as good as Drafthouse, closure sucking, it also messes up my comps quite a bit because it’s such a heavy pre-sales type of theater. This sucks man 

They declared bankruptcy right. I am not sure if they will be able to stick around for too long 😞

[kayumanggi]

 

[Shawn Robbins]

Despicable Me 4 (aka Minions 6) 4-week tracking:

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/4-week-tracking-despicable-me-4-could-swing-100m-5-day-fourth-of-july-bow-sound-of-hope-the-story-of-possum-trot-and-maxxxine-will-counter/

 

https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/4-week-tracking-illuminations-despicable

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Not surprising, reviews are poor and the Yellowstone audience (who watch the show for free) was never going to be reliable. The two parts being released so close to each other should've made it obvious the studio didn't expect much from it.

 

Shaping up to be crummy summer for WB. The Watchers is getting (perhaps unsurprisingly) weak reviews.

Edited June 6 by filmlover

[AniNate]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

They declared bankruptcy right. I am not sure if they will be able to stick around for too long 😞

 

A franchisee did, to be precise

[Eric is Quiet]

3 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

Despicable Me 4 (aka Minions 6) 4-week tracking:

 

https://boxofficetheory.com/4-week-tracking-despicable-me-4-could-swing-100m-5-day-fourth-of-july-bow-sound-of-hope-the-story-of-possum-trot-and-maxxxine-will-counter/

 

https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/4-week-tracking-illuminations-despicable

Are the DM4 numbers 3-day or 5-day?