The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Cmasterclay]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

I think even to week of release nobody knows where it sits. This is the summer movie where the thursday walkups could just just shock the hell out of everybody.  A mini Jurassic World possibly. Or not but it's possible.

Doubt it. Virtually every major walkup movie post-pandemic, from Bad Boys to Venom to Creed and even GvK to a degree, leaned pretty heavily black or Hispanic. The Twisters trailer was borderline MAGA. I just don't see the demographics that currently see and drive hit movies being in on Twisters - yet another whiter and older blockbuster in a summer inexplicably full of them.

[emoviefan]

14 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Doubt it. Virtually every major walkup movie post-pandemic, from Bad Boys to Venom to Creed and even GvK to a degree, leaned pretty heavily black or Hispanic. The Twisters trailer was borderline MAGA. I just don't see the demographics that currently see and drive hit movies being in on Twisters - yet another whiter and older blockbuster in a summer inexplicably full of them.

 I hear you.  But I mean do we really have to do the politics thing with this. I can not wait for this movie and I despise everything about MAGA nation in general even though I am white and older than the average user of this forum.   Unless somebody in this movie wears a sticker or says Trump 24 not going to let that matter for me at least.

[Flip]

Something to watch with Inside Out 2 is that the original also significantly outperformed predictions (60-70m) was the general consensus. Obviously there’s less room to breakout as a sequel, but it is a possibility

[AnthonyJPHer]

Again, my prediction for Inside Out 2’s opening is 110m domestic. It could definitely go lower than that but I feel like that’s my mark. Any thoughts on the WW opening? I think 200m+ is a strong possibility.

Edited June 9 by AnthonyJPHer

[todos]

136 DOM OW

Edited June 9 by todos

[Cmasterclay]

2 hours ago, emoviefan said:

 I hear you.  But I mean do we really have to do the politics thing with this. I can not wait for this movie and I despise everything about MAGA nation in general even though I am white and older than the average user of this forum.   Unless somebody in this movie wears a sticker or says Trump 24 not going to let that matter for me at least.

Oh I'm very excited too to be clear, I just mean between the country music and the PhDs are lame-o nerds stuff in the latest trailer, it's definitely going for a whiter audience than most breakout blockbusters.

[Relevation]

12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-5 Days

 

Previews - 2348/64388 (250 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $21.4M

 

Haunted Mansion - $13.5M

Wonka - $13.5M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $11.5M

 

Amazing how KFP4 comp is still $21M+. Ofc it will start dropping and a big drop on the final day to come in the low teens.

 

MiniTC2 will over-index for Pixar due to the big Hispanic audience here.

 

Shouldn’t Kung Fu Panda 4 also be overindexing here, then? It had a massive Hispanic skew on OW, to the tune of 48% Hispanic moviegoers 

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
685	5881	136510	4.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

302

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-5

(3.630x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $13.79M

(6.434x) of Garfield $12.23M

Comps average: $13.01M

 

This is heading over $10M previews if I had to guess 

FLORIDA 

 

Inside Out 2

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
685	6489	136510	4.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

608

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-4

(3.734x) of Kung Fu panda 4 $14.19M

(6.738x) of Garfield $12.80M

Comps average: $13.50M

 

Still growing at a fast rate. Definitely over indexing 

[babz06]

4 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Doubt it. Virtually every major walkup movie post-pandemic, from Bad Boys to Venom to Creed and even GvK to a degree, leaned pretty heavily black or Hispanic. The Twisters trailer was borderline MAGA. I just don't see the demographics that currently see and drive hit movies being in on Twisters - yet another whiter and older blockbuster in a summer inexplicably full of them.

I think Twisters will bring in some Hispanic and black audiences. It’s a natural disaster film at the end of the day so the actors arent the draw anyways.  The biggest issue is Deadpool coming a week after but they could still coexist. pg-13 vs R, superhero vs nonsuperhero.

Edited June 9 by babz06

[Insomnia]

7 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Doubt it. Virtually every major walkup movie post-pandemic, from Bad Boys to Venom to Creed and even GvK to a degree, leaned pretty heavily black or Hispanic. The Twisters trailer was borderline MAGA. I just don't see the demographics that currently see and drive hit movies being in on Twisters - yet another whiter and older blockbuster in a summer inexplicably full of them.

How lol? Are we really that divided that a movie about twisters can't appeal to anyone? The "PHD's are for nerds" thing isn't necessarily racial or political. It's just country people being country people (it used to be that simple and harmless anyway).

Edited June 10 by Insomnia

[SpiderByte]

it's not MAGA but it's definitely playing to the Yellowstone type audience 

[AniNate]

We're forgetting the most shocking walkup movie in recent times that literally came out summer last year. I do wonder if that might've been a factor in MI7's disappointing performance as well. Not sure what kind of audience Possum Trot is expecting but I suppose that might be a wild card in what kind of competition Twisters has to deal with. Guess that might also be a reason Universal wasn't that inclined to swap Despicable Me and Twisters release dates. 

 

 

Edited June 10 by AniNate

[keysersoze123]

On 6/6/2024 at 4:24 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 162790/1273850 3036114.64 7801 shows

Friday - 70907/1478507 1368854.49 8232 shows 

 

Another +3 days of data. Still bottoming as pace was lower than previous 3 days. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 167361/1274158 3116627.13 7804 shows 
Friday - 73826/1478828 1421775.96 8235 shows

 

Another +3 days of data. Still solid pace overall. There is still 46 days to go for release !!!

[YM!]

Southeast Wisconsin Theater Sample Thread - 6/9/24 (includes data from yesterday and for IO2 today) - Theaters include North Shore, Menomonee Falls, Brookfield Square and Majestic Cinema

 

• Inside Out 2 - Pace is continuing to be solid with today being a bit soft. MF's growth is the slowest and it is PLF heavy but Friday and Saturday through quick glances look healthy. Thinking O/U 8M previews based on MTC1 data from Keyser having soft weekend jumps and some other data but if buildup is strong this week, think 10M/100M is definitely a possibility.
• A Quiet Place Day One - Solid pace for it, still too early to guess but feel like it has the potential for 40M OW.
• Twisters - Weak start but think it does not matter due to how early it is. Like others said if DM4 and Twisters swapped spots both would be healthier. 
• Deadpool and Wolverine - Again DP&W is selling like hotcakes. Thinking that 30M previews is definitely possible but still too early to say 200M OW.

 

Inside Out 2	6/13/24	T-5	12	2D, 3D, PLF (2D & 3D)	33	10	19	40	102
A Quiet Place Day One	6/27/24	T-19	10	2D, PLF	2	7	1	18	28
Twisters EA	7/17/24	T-38	2	PLF				12	12
Twisters	7/18/24	T-40	9	2D, PLF	2	0	0	2
Deadpool and Wolverine	7/25/24	T-47	16	2D, 3D, PLF (2D & 3D)	178	130	129	647	1094
Inside Out 2	6/13/24	T-4	12	2D, 3D, PLF (2D and 3D)	35	12	19	52	118

[Flip]

On 6/8/2024 at 9:42 PM, Flip said:

Inside Out 2 (T-5)

12 showtimes/304 tix sold (+23)

 

Missed Bad Boys 4 T-5 (only comp)

Friday (T-6): 16 showtimes/546 tix sold

 

1.796x Thursday

 

A Quiet Place (T-19)

 

12 showtimes/131 tix sold (+3)

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-25) (D4)

 

22 showtimes/56 tix sold (+0)

 

Twisters (T-40) (D3)

 

14 showtimes/37 tix sold (+2)

 

not going to check DM4 and Twisters for a while since they’re barely growing.

Inside Out 2 (T-4)

12 showtimes/344 tix sold (+40)

 

1.922x Bad Boys 4 T-4 [10.71m]

Friday (T-6): 16 showtimes/679 tix sold (+133!)

 

1.974x Thursday

 

hopefully new showtimes will be added because a fair amount of shows are getting close to capacity

 

A Quiet Place (T-18

 

12 showtimes/137 tix sold (+6)

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-24) (D5)

 

22 showtimes/58 tix sold (+2)

 

Twisters (T-39) (D4)

 

14 showtimes/37 tix sold (+2)

[Flip]

Sunday fan event for Inside Out 2 (T-7): 

 

3 showtimes/122 tix sold

[Joyous Legion]

On 5/22/2024 at 10:40 AM, Legion Again said:

Alright, fine then

T-65
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$28.00	$29.50	$31.00	$32.50	$34.00	$35.50	$37.00	$38.50	$40.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	4.875	$136.50	$143.81	$151.13	$158.44	$165.75	$173.06	$180.38	$187.69	$195.00
	4.95	$138.60	$146.03	$153.45	$160.88	$168.30	$175.73	$183.15	$190.58	$198.00
	5.025	$140.70	$148.24	$155.78	$163.31	$170.85	$178.39	$185.93	$193.46	$201.00
	5.1	$142.80	$150.45	$158.10	$165.75	$173.40	$181.05	$188.70	$196.35	$204.00
	5.175	$144.90	$152.66	$160.43	$168.19	$175.95	$183.71	$191.48	$199.24	$207.00
	5.25	$147.00	$154.88	$162.75	$170.63	$178.50	$186.38	$194.25	$202.13	$210.00
	5.325	$149.10	$157.09	$165.08	$173.06	$181.05	$189.04	$197.03	$205.01	$213.00
	5.4	$151.20	$159.30	$167.40	$175.50	$183.60	$191.70	$199.80	$207.90	$216.00
	5.475	$153.30	$161.51	$169.73	$177.94	$186.15	$194.36	$202.58	$210.79	$219.00

 

 

I think it will probably hit at least the medium green region but leaving very wide uncertainty for now to respect being t-65

Made a minor update in my private sheet, might as well share I guess. Not much changed, still far out, still high uncertainty

 

T-46
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$30.00	$31.25	$32.50	$33.75	$35.00	$36.25	$37.50	$38.75	$40.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	4.825	$144.75	$150.78	$156.81	$162.84	$168.88	$174.91	$180.94	$186.97	$193.00
	4.9	$147.00	$153.13	$159.25	$165.38	$171.50	$177.63	$183.75	$189.88	$196.00
	4.975	$149.25	$155.47	$161.69	$167.91	$174.13	$180.34	$186.56	$192.78	$199.00
	5.05	$151.50	$157.81	$164.13	$170.44	$176.75	$183.06	$189.38	$195.69	$202.00
	5.125	$153.75	$160.16	$166.56	$172.97	$179.38	$185.78	$192.19	$198.59	$205.00
	5.2	$156.00	$162.50	$169.00	$175.50	$182.00	$188.50	$195.00	$201.50	$208.00
	5.275	$158.25	$164.84	$171.44	$178.03	$184.63	$191.22	$197.81	$204.41	$211.00
	5.35	$160.50	$167.19	$173.88	$180.56	$187.25	$193.94	$200.63	$207.31	$214.00
	5.425	$162.75	$169.53	$176.31	$183.09	$189.88	$196.66	$203.44	$210.22	$217.00

[filmlover]

10 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

Doubt it. Virtually every major walkup movie post-pandemic, from Bad Boys to Venom to Creed and even GvK to a degree, leaned pretty heavily black or Hispanic. The Twisters trailer was borderline MAGA. I just don't see the demographics that currently see and drive hit movies being in on Twisters - yet another whiter and older blockbuster in a summer inexplicably full of them.

This has to be an unserious take. 

 

I feel like some of you are putting way too much pressure on what looks to be a run of the mill disaster movie (a genre that hasn't been a hot commodity in a minute) to be Middle America bait based on...well, not a whole lot. If it can manage numbers in the San Andreas/2012 area despite facing a guaranteed smash in its second weekend that would be an acceptable outcome, especially with a barren August coming up.

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

Made a minor update in my private sheet, might as well share I guess. Not much changed, still far out, still high uncertainty

 

T-46
Legion DPW OWForecastMatrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$30.00	$31.25	$32.50	$33.75	$35.00	$36.25	$37.50	$38.75	$40.00
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	4.825	$144.75	$150.78	$156.81	$162.84	$168.88	$174.91	$180.94	$186.97	$193.00
	4.9	$147.00	$153.13	$159.25	$165.38	$171.50	$177.63	$183.75	$189.88	$196.00
	4.975	$149.25	$155.47	$161.69	$167.91	$174.13	$180.34	$186.56	$192.78	$199.00
	5.05	$151.50	$157.81	$164.13	$170.44	$176.75	$183.06	$189.38	$195.69	$202.00
	5.125	$153.75	$160.16	$166.56	$172.97	$179.38	$185.78	$192.19	$198.59	$205.00
	5.2	$156.00	$162.50	$169.00	$175.50	$182.00	$188.50	$195.00	$201.50	$208.00
	5.275	$158.25	$164.84	$171.44	$178.03	$184.63	$191.22	$197.81	$204.41	$211.00
	5.35	$160.50	$167.19	$173.88	$180.56	$187.25	$193.94	$200.63	$207.31	$214.00
	5.425	$162.75	$169.53	$176.31	$183.09	$189.88	$196.66	$203.44	$210.22	$217.00

I am here

[AniNate]

I mean I do think it is targeting mid-America with that soundtrack that seems mostly like a vehicle to get the movie more attention on country radio. But there is a difference between that and "MAGA", as much as internet echo chambers might have one believe otherwise.

 

Really don't need to bring political factions into this when there has been no reason to whatsoever so far.