The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Grand Cine]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews(T-4) - 45369/628991 830843.05 3242 shows +6485

Friday - 58069/1039058 1000679.04 5352 shows +10054

 

So final surge begins. Let us see how rest of the week goes. 

It's ahead the last day of pace of TLM :

 

Previews(T-4) - 67189/919974 1146903.83 5615 shows +5960

Friday - 81668/1041293 1333447.74 5758 shows +9187

 

I think he will continue to be ahead the pace of TLM and to catch up the scores of previews and maybe ahead for Friday . 

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Inside Out 2, T-5 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 128

New Sales: 24

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 25

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.3

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 25/6

Early Evening: 68/10

Late Evening: 35/9

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 11/1

Dolby 3D: 54/6

IMAX: 36/6

VIP: 24/4

Regular: 3/1

Regular 3D: 0/5

4DX 3D: 0/2

 

 Comps

0.831x KFP4 for $3.2M

16.000x IF for $28.0M

32.00x Garfield for $60.8M

1.684x GB:FE for $7.9M

2.286x Wonka for $8.0M

Average: $21.6M

 

Again, ignore the average. IF and Garfield are distorting, but are there because they'll become relevant in the final few days when they started showing life. 

 

Growth across all comps are a great sign. Sunday morning updates usually don't see a big increase, but, I think families maybe planning for the week a bit.

 

Inside Out 2, T-5 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 157

New Sales: 29

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 25

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.5

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 33/6

Early Evening: 89/10

Late Evening: 35/9

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 16/1

Dolby 3D: 70/6

IMAX: 36/6

VIP: 27/4

Regular: 6/1

Regular 3D: 0/5

4DX 3D:2/2

 

 Comps

0.773x KFP4 for $2.9M

13.083x IF for $22.9M

39.250x Garfield for $74.6M

1.892x GB:FE for $8.9M

2.181x Wonka for $7.2M

Average: $23.4M

 

Another good day. At this point, I agree with whoever was saying Wonka is probably the best comp.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

Inside Out 2, T-5 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 157

New Sales: 29

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 25

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 6.5

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 33/6

Early Evening: 89/10

Late Evening: 35/9

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 16/1

Dolby 3D: 70/6

IMAX: 36/6

VIP: 27/4

Regular: 6/1

Regular 3D: 0/5

4DX 3D:2/2

 

 Comps

0.773x KFP4 for $2.9M

13.083x IF for $22.9M

39.250x Garfield for $74.6M

1.892x GB:FE for $8.9M

2.181x Wonka for $7.2M

Average: $23.4M

 

Another good day. At this point, I agree with whoever was saying Wonka is probably the best comp.

Pixar films aren't doing well in Canada on Thursday previews. Donno why. Lightyear and Elemental, both did eh in Canada on previews.

[thajdikt]

 

[thajdikt]

1 minute ago, thajdikt said:

Edited June 10 by thajdikt

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Pixar films aren't doing well in Canada on Thursday previews. Donno why. Lightyear and Elemental, both did eh in Canada on previews.

 

I don't think there's any school jurisdictions that finish before mid June up here, where there's a lot more areas in the States that seem to end a little earlier.

 

By default everything goes right up to Canada Day here, with some smaller school boards or private schools sometimes ending a week or two early. 

 

Basically for anything in June, I expect to see variances. 

[Flip]

4 hours ago, Grand Cine said:

It's ahead the last day of pace of TLM :

 

Previews(T-4) - 67189/919974 1146903.83 5615 shows +5960

Friday - 81668/1041293 1333447.74 5758 shows +9187

 

I think he will continue to be ahead the pace of TLM and to catch up the scores of previews and maybe ahead for Friday . 

Fri/Thurs ratio is also higher, but not by a crazy amount 

[Liiviig 1998]

In terms of IM . TS4 may be the comp to watch for. Just 10x  

 

Don't know if this can manage incredibles 2  11x

 

95-120M+ .

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 T-18: 23.85% Awareness, 36.55% Interest

Longlegs T-32: 16.75% Awareness, 43.93% Interest

The Forge T-74: 13.73% Awareness, 37.41% Interest

The Wild Robot T-109: 19.38% Awareness, 39.48% Interest

Venom: The Last Dance T-137: 37.07% Awareness, 53.94% Interest

Levon's Trade T-221: 8.49% Awareness, 34.61% Interest

Mickey 17 T-235: 12% Awareness, 36.78% Interest

 

Inside Out 2 T-4: 61.28% Awareness, 55.63% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 74% chance of 50M, 55% chance of 60M, 44% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 26% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 22% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 14% chance of 80M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 50M, 43% chance of 90M, 29% chance of 100M

 

The Bikeriders T-11: 24.26% Awareness, 37.75% Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 9% chance of 20M

 

Fly Me to the Moon T-32: 29.45% Awareness, 41.6% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 59% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M

Medium Interest: 73% chance of 10M, 36% chance of 20M

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Pixar films aren't doing well in Canada on Thursday previews. Donno why. Lightyear and Elemental, both did eh in Canada on previews.

Most of Canada is still in school until the end of June. A Thursday in mid/late June is still a school night here.

[AniNate]

EDIT, dup post

Edited June 10 by AniNate

[keysersoze123]

Canada is tiny % of previews and saturday increase would benefit from  it being in School while at US schools are off almost everywhere(except in NY/NJ?)

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Canada is tiny % of previews and saturday increase would benefit from  it being in School while at US schools are off almost everywhere(except in NY/NJ?)

Sure but it's difference of expecting $11.5M from American data and it coming to $11M. 

 

For context, Lightyear Canada $155K previews aka 2.9% of DOM. In comparison, Minions 2 did 7.4%.

Edited June 10 by charlie Jatinder

[vafrow]

Cineplex just tweeted this out.

 

 

 

This seems low to me. I'm tracking 5 theatres, and have 1785 in ticket sales from my last count just for Thursday previews. Average ticket price is likely hovering around $20, as the most popular format by far is IMAX followed by Cineplexs Dolby format (AVX) and their VIP format. Cineplex has 160 locations, so if my theatres are average, that takes the Thursday preview number to over $1M. And usually, when theatre chains report pre-sales, they're not limiting to preview night. And Friday and onward sales are pretty robust.

 

Now, my sample likely is above average (two IMAX screens out of five theatres alone distorts), but taking into account full weekend sales, it's hard for my sample to be that far ahead.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Cineplex just tweeted this out.

 

 

 

This seems low to me. I'm tracking 5 theatres, and have 1785 in ticket sales from my last count just for Thursday previews. Average ticket price is likely hovering around $20, as the most popular format by far is IMAX followed by Cineplexs Dolby format (AVX) and their VIP format. Cineplex has 160 locations, so if my theatres are average, that takes the Thursday preview number to over $1M. And usually, when theatre chains report pre-sales, they're not limiting to preview night. And Friday and onward sales are pretty robust.

 

Now, my sample likely is above average (two IMAX screens out of five theatres alone distorts), but taking into account full weekend sales, it's hard for my sample to be that far ahead.

 

 

GTA isn't average lol.

Also remember a large chunk of presales are by cinema subscription. So you may see a ticket sold at $20 but its gross counted could be $10-12 whatever the agree price is.

 

$1M in Cineplex should roughly mean ~70K admits on 155 locs vs 18K on 32 locs at MiniTC2 which has one of the highest PTA in country.

 

Also $1M in Cineplex would roughly means $15M DOM, which is around what MTC1 would suggest as well.

Edited June 10 by charlie Jatinder

[jeffthehat]

.

Edited June 10 by jeffthehat
mistake post

[jeffthehat]

Indiana

Inside Out 2 T-3

Sales	Seats	Shows
1651	32479	183

Comps

1.18x Ghostbusters FE T-3 = $5.6m

4.96x IF T-3 = $8.9m

1.02x Godzilla x Kong NE = $10.2m

3.49x Kung Fu Panda 4 = $13.3m

 

AVG = $9.50m

---

Don't think any releases this year are good comps for this. Just showing a mix of genre/size/growth rate. 

[M37]

The pace for IO2 at MTC1 from T-7 to T-4 is nearly identical to KFP4 (+43% growth), at three times the volume. So maybe it will play like a true animated film after all?

 

Daily target to keep up that pace:

• T-3 = 56-57K
• T-2 = 67-68K
• T-1 = 84-85K
• T-F = 185K

Probably doesn't get a similar underinex (so not $3.8M x 3) but hitting that sales number even with a TLM PSM of $58/tix would be ~$10.7M. Also a reminder we still have that post-pandemic void in previews between $11.6M (Venom 2) to $17.0M (Avatar 2), excluding Black Widow's Day & Date release, (and the fudging from Dune II's preview)

 

Selling 100K MTC1 tickets in the final day hasn't been done since Barbie (technically TCP, but that was also a holiday), but GxK did over 70K, and family films are usually among the most walk-up friendly titles

Spoiler

This is the last week I'll have access to my data, so don't expect this kind of analysis for rest of the summer

Spoiler

I've got my own personal countdown going (at T-8 currently)

 

[Relevation]

Open question, could we be in for a weirdly high IM with Inside Out 2 here? Like, the THU:FRI sales ratio at MTC1 skews more towards FRI than Elemental (which had a 12.3x IM), FRI sales are growing at a faster rate than THU, it has the FUNKO event on SUN which is selling well, and it’s a Father’s Day boosted SUN to boot. If the IM conversation starts looking more like 12x or maybe even 13x, then this could be potentially charting for some really really really big numbers.

[AnthonyJPHer]

1 minute ago, Relevation said:

Open question, could we be in for a weirdly high IM with Inside Out 2 here? Like, the THU:FRI sales ratio at MTC1 skews more towards FRI than Elemental (which had a 12.3x IM), FRI sales are growing at a faster rate than THU, it has the FUNKO event on SUN which is selling well, and it’s a Father’s Day boosted SUN to boot. If the IM conversation starts looking more like 12x or maybe even 13x, then this could be potentially charting for some really really really big numbers.

I do think people are forgetting that Sunday is a holiday. The drop will be less than it normally would and Saturday has a major event for the movie itself. Friday seems to be overshadowing Thursday by a lot. Assuming 10-11m previews, 11x gets it to 110m and 12x gets it to 132m.