The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Insomnia]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Interesting, so it won't be going wide the next weekend like Asteroid City. If the gross warrants it, probably going wide the weekend after alongside DM4.

[filmlover]

Kind of Kindness is likely to be by far the lowest-grossing of the Stone/Lanthimos collaborations. Should still hit $10M+ total at least, hopefully.

[el sid]

The Exorcism, counted today for today had 67 sold tickets with shows in 7 theaters. Best sales in the AMC Fresh Meadows in NY. 

 

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday): The Pope's Exorcist (850k from previews) had 257 sold tickets = 221k. 

Prey for the Devil (660k) had 164 = 271k. 

And The First Omen (725k) had 184 sold tickets = 265k. 

 

Average: 250k. 

I also think this will be a walk-up film so 250k seem to be too low and ~500k could happen. 

Edited June 20 by el sid

[el sid]

The Bikeriders, counted today for today had 268 sold tickets with shows in 6 theaters (no shows in the action-affine AMC in NY). 

Up mediocre 29% since yesterday.

Best sales (by far) in the AMC Universal Cinema in LA. 

 

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday and in the same 6 theaters): Plane (435k from previews) had 137 sold tickets = 850k. 

The Expendables 4 (750k) had 198 = 1M. 

Civil War (2.6M) had 1.010 = 700k. 

BT (4.6M) had 1.289 = 950k. 

And The Fall Guy (2.35M) had 944 sold tickets = 650k. 

 

Average: 850k. A bit less than yesterday but that's only because I skipped The Meg 2 because I doubt that it will have the same walk-ups. 

Of course if it reaches 1M depends on its walk-ups and that's a film where I have no idea if they will be decent or not. So I just go with 850k from previews and because the reviews are pretty good I think low double digits OW are possible. 

[Human]

I work at Walmart, and one of my coworkers is really hyped for Twisters.  I know he will be there.  

I think it gets something around 70M first weekend, but has week legs.  

[keysersoze123]

On 6/16/2024 at 6:41 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 177190/1275319 3288387.88 7824 shows +3634

Friday - 80093/1480094 1534288.10 8243 shows +2806

 

+3 days of data. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 182486/1277183 3379640.38 7842 shows +5296

Friday - 82853/1480201 1583429.52 8244 shows +2760

 

+4 days later. Need to see how Disney amps up the marketing for this. Probably may not happen until we are into final 2 weeks of presales. Do we know when the premier for this movie is? 

 

 

 

 

[JimmyB]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

The Exorcism, counted today for today had 67 sold tickets with shows in 7 theaters. Best sales in the AMC Fresh Meadows in NY. 

 

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Thursday): The Pope's Exorcist (850k from previews) had 257 sold tickets = 221k. 

Prey for the Devil (660k) had 164 = 271k. 

And The First Omen (725k) had 184 sold tickets = 265k. 

 

Average: 250k. 

I also think this will be a walk-up film so 250k seem to be too low and ~500k could happen. 

I think the 250K number is going to be right.  If I didnt follow sites like this I'd have no idea The Exorcism movie was coming out this weekend.  Checking my local Cinemark it's so far has sold 4 tickets over 4 showtimes today. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews - 182486/1277183 3379640.38 7842 shows +5296

Friday - 82853/1480201 1583429.52 8244 shows +2760

 

+4 days later. Need to see how Disney amps up the marketing for this. Probably may not happen until we are into final 2 weeks of presales. Do we know when the premier for this movie is? 

 

 

 

 

 

They just announced the 22nd of July as the premiere. 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

 

They just announced the 22nd of July as the premiere. 

So no social media reactions as well until final week. I could see them pull a Guardians and pull in the premier by a week if the sales dont ramp up significantly. 

[Pinacolada]

32 minutes ago, el sid said:

The Bikeriders, counted today for today had 268 sold tickets with shows in 6 theaters (no shows in the action-affine AMC in NY). 

Up mediocre 29% since yesterday.

 

 

 

Aw Shucks

[Box Office Hit]

 

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Twisters T-29: 48.5% Awareness, 53.67% Interest

Borderlands T-50: 27.86% Awareness, 41.95% Interest

The Front Room T-78: 15.67% Awareness, 38.67% Interest

Wolfs T-92: 17.5% Awareness, 41.95% Interest

Kraven the Hunter T-176: 24.82% Awareness, 40.59% Interest

Mufasa: The Lion King T-183: 46.97% Awareness, 56.87% Interest

The Fire Inside T-188: 12.17% Awareness, 36.11% Interest

 

The Bikeriders T-1: 29.47% Awareness, 39.02% Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 9% chance of 20M

 

A Quiet Place: Day One T-8: 41.28% Awareness, 51.39% Interest

Final Awareness: 79% chance of 10M, 48% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 45% chance of 20M, 18% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 80% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 47% chance of 40M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 69% chance of 20M, 38% chance of 30M, 15% chance of 40M

 

Horizon: An American Saga Chapter 1 T-8: 29.04% Awareness, 39.31% Interest

Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 33% chance of 10M

[DAJK]

Pretty decent numbers for Bikeriders around here. If I were to ballpark it based on my comps, things are looking like 1.2-1.4M Thursday. That being said… old white guy central over here, so there may be a bit of an overindex.

 

Still, would be nice to see a film like this be able to pull off something like low-teens this weekend.

[AniNate]

60 tickets sold for the final IO2 show tonight at my local theater, wouldn't be surprised by a big Thursday number

 

If it does 20 mil today then I think $600mil is locked

[charlie Jatinder]

My numbers for Bikeriders were good. Haven't checked today yet but was thinking of 10-13M weekend.

That said seeing all your numbers, may be I am overindexing but that will be weird. 

[keysersoze123]

On 6/18/2024 at 1:01 PM, keysersoze123 said:

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Early shows - 4170/62431 75766.28 277 shows

Previews - 26489/520061 536237.33 2543 show s +5048 

Friday - 17610/964003 343448.02 4724 shows +4094

 

+6 days of data. Its doing fairly well. I hope it ramps up well in final week or so. Targeting 5-6m previews.  

 

Edit: Early shows BO already covered as part of previews. They are also on the same day. So its more of a fan show than early shows. 

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1

Previews(T-7) - 30281/523978 609879.25 2563 shows +3792

Friday - 20512/965878 397914.90 4732 shows +2902

 

+2 (and few hours) of data. Its doing well. Definitely looking at 50m OW. 

[Migs20242]

14 minutes ago, AniNate said:

60 tickets sold for the final IO2 show tonight at my local theater, wouldn't be surprised by a big Thursday number

 

If it does 20 mil today then I think $600mil is locked

Expect 20-23 million for Thursday.

[Pinacolada]

35 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Pretty decent numbers for Bikeriders around here. If I were to ballpark it based on my comps, things are looking like 1.2-1.4M Thursday. That being said… old white guy central over here, so there may be a bit of an overindex.

 

Still, would be nice to see a film like this be able to pull off something like low-teens this weekend.

 

23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

My numbers for Bikeriders were good. Haven't checked today yet but was thinking of 10-13M weekend.

That said seeing all your numbers, may be I am overindexing but that will be weird. 

This is what I like to hear

[Flip]

On 6/19/2024 at 10:34 PM, Flip said:

A Quiet Place (T-8)

 

12 showtimes/217 tix sold (+14)

.99x Inside Out 2 (T-8) [12.88m*]
1.72x Bad Boys 4 (T-8) [9.59m]
4.72x Watchers (T-8) [4.72m]

* take this with a grain of salt, due to both genre differences and AQP over indexing since I’m tracking NYC where the movie takes place.

 

for now Watchers comp is probably the best to follow

A Quiet Place (T-7)

 

12 showtimes/230 tix sold (+13)

.93x Inside Out 2 (T-7) [12.09m*]
1.76x Bad Boys 4 (T-7) [9.79m]
4.69x Watchers (T-7) [4.69m]

* take this with a grain of salt, due to both genre differences and AQP over indexing since I’m tracking NYC where the movie takes place.

 

for now Watchers comp is probably the best to follow

[charlie Jatinder]

Bikeriders MiniTC2

 

Previews - 2669/20196 (104 showings) $28K

 

Probably another $1K it will add. This would normally be ~$1.4M.