The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[keysersoze123]

I remember tracking it and it finished around Thor in ticket sales(but i was not capturing all MTC1 theaters back then). Due to smaller sample the MTC ratio was so much lower that it hit 40m. My initial extrapolation in COVID era was way off as the ratios got higher and higher. Some movies like DC stuff hit crazy levels. Also smaller movies are all over the place. Some recent movies hit 40% of overall previews while in 2019 MTC1+MTC2 was at that level 🙂

 

MTC3 is lot smaller and we lost Arclight/pacific cinemas and few other smaller theaters as well. 

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Just announced T-Mobile Atom deal...

 

7/9 $5 to ANY movie in any form.  Usable July 9-14 (not sure if you can prebook for later like normal deals, but it's looking unlikely, so this will not bump Deadpool).

 

Should help next week be a good week...

Based on what I see in T-life its only for shows on 9-14 dates. Just adding some life to otherwise quiet week. 

[kayumanggi]

900 pages

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I remember tracking it and it finished around Thor in ticket sales(but i was not capturing all MTC1 theaters back then). Due to smaller sample the MTC ratio was so much lower that it hit 40m. My initial extrapolation in COVID era was way off as the ratios got higher and higher. Some movies like DC stuff hit crazy levels. Also smaller movies are all over the place. Some recent movies hit 40% of overall previews while in 2019 MTC1+MTC2 was at that level 🙂

 

MTC3 is lot smaller and we lost Arclight/pacific cinemas and few other smaller theaters as well. 

 

Yeah, when I cared back in mid-to-late '21 (ie when it was mattering) I was casually noting that Sacramento was pulling a larger share of the DOM market than it had been in '18-'19. Either because of fewer theaters nationwide, or Sacramento was just a healthier market for movies, or maybe even pure random chance. 

 

Once I rebuilt up my comps my threshold for caring pretty much plummeted through the ground.  Every once in a while we have cause to look again (last major one was probably Aladdin/TLM [though a case could have been made for KotM/GxK) but by now ATP has hiked enough that disentangling ATP hikes and Sacto Share of Market along with internal market differences becomes... irritating.  And I have enough irritating things in my life that I don't feel the need to add to them. 😉 

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/3/2024 at 11:40 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Maxxxine (T-2):

Day: T-2, T-1 Hour	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Friday: 22 theaters	116	74	415	9080	4.57
Wednesday July 3 EA: 17 theaters	19	131	433	1695	25.55
TOTALS:	135	205	848	10775	7.87

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		278	43	66.99
Other chains:		137	31	33.01

 

Friday Comps:

4.32x The Strangers Chapter 1: $5.19 Million

3.12x Abigail: $3.12 Million

Immaculate: Missed

2.63x Thanksgiving: $2.63 Million

 

Average: $3.65 Million

 

Not a great update, but EA should be syphoning off some sales until now, so hopefully it will accelerate.

 

EA Comps:

0.87x Fall Guy EA: $695k

1.25x Challengers EA: $690k

0.36x Dune Part 2 EA: $715k

0.41x MI7 EA: $820k

 

Average: $730k

 

REALLY good finish for this, PLF concerns still on my mind but bumping my EA prediction to $600-650k.

 

Minnesota Opening Day:

 

Maxxxine (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 22 theaters	116	153	568	9080	6.26

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		358	80	63.03
Other chains:		210	73	36.97

 

Friday Comps:

3.69x The Strangers Chapter 1: $4.43 Million

3.01x Abigail: $3.01 Million

4.62x First Omen: $3.35 Million

6.36x Immaculate: $3.5 Million

2.93x Thanksgiving: $2.93 Million

2.93x Talk To Me: $3.64 Million

 

Average: $3.48 Million

 

It's tricky because I am comping this with previews numbers. It has been losing steam against most comps, but it also has many more showings than any of these other movies, so walk-ups might have a bigger effect.

 

Based on pre-sales alone, I would go with a final Opening Day prediction of $3.5 Million, +/-0.3. Adding the estimated EA from yesterday, I would go with a combined $4.1 Million, +/-0.35. Have no idea about the previews today from Canada, I wonder if they might just roll those into a number for tomorrow too. Messy stuff

[Unfitclock]

Maxxine opening to just around 10 million like every other horror film sans a quiet place would be extremely disappointing

[keysersoze123]

On 7/2/2024 at 4:51 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews (T-23) - 200190/1281668 3684190.08 7874 shows // +1837 over past 2 days

 

I think this is the new level as we are approaching final 3 weeks. Thor was at 247907 at T-7. Of course there is inflation. But ATP will keep going down as it sells more as most tickets are standard. So we have to do the T-7 comps. That would anyway be my final update and so that is where I am looking at for now 🙂

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews (T-21) - 205314/1282987 3771730.28 7884 shows +5124

Friday - 99360/1490384 1875821.75 8300 shows // +7163 4 days of update

 

Definitely pace is up. 3 weeks to go. But as I said for me 2 weeks to go. Current pace is around 2600 ish per day for previews over past 2 days. Let us look at the pace early next week and see how it increases. Friday is still lower. But it should at least cross half of previews soon.  

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1

Previews (T-21) - 205314/1282987 3771730.28 7884 shows +5124

Friday - 99360/1490384 1875821.75 8300 shows // +7163 4 days of update

 

Definitely pace is up. 3 weeks to go. But as I said for me 2 weeks to go. Current pace is around 2600 ish per day for previews over past 2 days. Let us look at the pace early next week and see how it increases. Friday is still lower. But it should at least cross half of previews soon.  

Wonder if run was late enough for July 4 to impact today or the film is far enough to not have much impact.

[jeffthehat]

5 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

For my fellow trackers who use Selenium to collect presales data, is there any clever way y'all have found to circumvent Fandango flood control? It's been difficult collecting data these past few days with the "not found" flood control nonsense on Fandango.

I’m using undetected_chromedriver but that’s about as clever as my setup gets 

[keysersoze123]

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Thursday(T-1) - 119248/1287985 1670658.43 7341 shows 

 

I think day 2 sales look robust to me. I am expecting 300K ish finish considering late shows will take a dip. Thinking 20-22m for its Thursday. 

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Thursday final - 304063/1294485 4434186.07 7403 shows +185185

 

I think it finished exactly where I expected. 25% drop here. Let shows did crater due to fireworks. Could hold better across the country. May be hit 20m. 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Wonder if run was late enough for July 4 to impact today or the film is far enough to not have much impact.

Late sales would suck today for sure. Tomorrow evening I can take a look at previews alone to see if there is anything different. 

[Flip]

On 7/3/2024 at 10:46 PM, Flip said:

MaXXXine (T-2) Friday Opening Day

 

11 showtimes/131 tix sold (+47) 

 

1.49x Watchers {thurs} (T-2) [1.49m]

.21x DM4 OD (T-2) [~5.88m]
.31x A Quiet Place D1 {thurs} (T-2)[2.1m]

.097x Inside Out 2 {Friday} (T-2) [4.92m]

 

grew against every comp, so it’s looking promising

MaXXXine (T-1) Friday Opening Day

 

11 showtimes/179 tix sold (+48) 

 

1.74 Watchers {thurs} (T-1) [1.74m]

.18x DM4 OD (T-1) [4.98m]
.35x A Quiet Place D1 {thurs} (T-1)[2.38m]

.093x Inside Out 2 {Friday} (T-1) [4.72m]

 

accounting for over indexing and weaker wallops than family films, should do 4.3-4.6m

[Rorschach]

On 7/4/2024 at 12:11 AM, Rorschach said:

MaXXXine (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

6 2D showings: 29/564 (5.1% sold) [+19]

 

Comps: 

Quiet Place (Friday): $3.43 mil

Watchers (Friday): $3.45 mil

Strangers Chp. 1 (Friday): $2.22 mil

Average: $3.03 mil

 

 

MaXXXine (Thursday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

6 2D showings: 43/564 (5.1% sold) [+14]

 

Comps: 

Quiet Place (Friday): $3.64 mil

Watchers (Friday): $2.56 mil

Strangers Chp. 1 (Friday): $2.1 mil

Average: $2.77 mil

 

Not as strong as yesterday, definitely under-indexing here. Guessing $3.5-4M.

Edited yesterday at 03:18 PM by Rorschach

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Thursday(T-1) - 119248/1287985 1670658.43 7341 shows 

 

I think day 2 sales look robust to me. I am expecting 300K ish finish considering late shows will take a dip. Thinking 20-22m for its Thursday. 

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Friday Presales - 91026/1311287 1370434.10 7327 shows

 

Surprised to see Friday sales down from today. I am expecting better walkups which should take it to 320k ish finish. 22-23m friday and around 110m ish over 5 day. Its 5 day is what I had expected well before release but I was thinking more backloaded weekend than what we are seeing. 

[keysersoze123]

On 7/3/2024 at 9:02 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Maxxxine MTC1

Early Shows Final - 18907/49344 283220.17 447 shows +5676

Friday(T-2) - 20596/218765 289313.22 2298 shows +3602

 

I did not see any show at MTC2. I am expecting 600k ish for early shows plus whatever it did on other days including tomorrow. Friday growth is not that great but let us see if things speed up tomorrow now that early shows are done. 

Maxxxine MTC1 Friday Presales final - 27482/219978 381999.47 2310 shows +6886

 

Terrible growth for T-1. I am not sure if its even hitting 50K. Plus ATP is low and I am not sure it will do well everywhere. I think I am back to high single digits OW 🙂 and Friday around 3.5m including all early shows. 

[crazymoviekid]

On 7/3/2024 at 11:58 PM, crazymoviekid said:

MaXXXine:

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 19 Tickets

Theater 2: 21 Tickets

 

AQP:DO: $6.99M

FNAF: $1.48M

Saw X: $4.77M

Insidious 5: $6.80M

The Blackening: $2.91M

Pearl: $9.19M

Nope: $3.60M

 

To little surprise, we're dealing with fan-driven sales. Drops all around. Looking more like $2.5M-$3.5M

MaXXXine:

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 28 Tickets

Theater 2: 35 Tickets

 

AQP:DO: $6.04M

FNAF: $1.71M

Saw X: $5.22M

Insidious 5: $8.14M

The Blackening: $2.34M

Pearl: $8.27M

Nope: $3.02M

 

Still a bit of variety. Aiming for $2.5M-$3.5M

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Terrible growth for T-1.

Remember July 4th.

[keysersoze123]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Remember July 4th.

Oops. I forgot for this one 🙂 I guess it should cross 50K. But low ATP and it could over index at MTC1 as well. I think I will stick to my numbers. 

 

Even DM4 Friday PS is bit low due to July 4. So it should increase more than even Wednesday. Can it hit 350K for 25m Friday. We have to wait and see. 

Edited Friday at 05:17 AM by keysersoze123

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Oops. I forgot for this one 🙂 I guess it should cross 50K. But low ATP and it could over index at MTC1 as well. I think I will stick to my numbers. 

Yeah, agree with 3.5.

Though I think that would need 60K and it may hit that.

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah, agree with 3.5.

Though I think that would need 60K and it may hit that.

Including previews and early shows. That should add 600k.