The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[lorddemaxus]

Give me a domestic gross of 78 mil for longlegs and I’ll be pretty happy

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/28/2024 at 6:01 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-27

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
226	7962	42042	18.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

71

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-27

(1.987x) of GOTG 3 $34.76M

Next target is 8.5k tickets sold by T-20 to keep up pace with mid $30Ms

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
230	9438	44009	21.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

347

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-15

(1.834x) of GOTG 3 $32.10M

Starting its acceleration. Expecting a massive final two weeks based on last few days of pace

 

*For Fun 

(2.353x) of Barbenheimer $74.43M

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/9/2024 at 8:33 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

LONGLEGS 

 

Thursday 

 

T-2

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
319	1942	65417	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-2

(2.778x) of Watchers $2.78M

(1.793x) of Night Swim $2.69M

Comps AVG: $2.74M 

 

It's doing pretty good. Not seeing anything crazy, probably underindexing here

FLORIDA 

 

LONGLEGS 

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
319	2428	65417	3.7%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

486

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(3.027x) of Watchers $3.03M

(1.861x) of Night Swim $2.79M

Comps AVG: $2.91M 

 

Pretty good acceleration. Does look like $3m previews is likely

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews(T-16) - 218905/1285059 4003715.95 7907 shows +3395

 

FYI impacted shows(4668/30692 80786.92 200 shows). I have added those to above as I mentioned yesterday. 9 days/56K to hit the 275K that Charlie is expecting. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews(T-15) - 222228/1286216 4059459.20 7914 shows +3323

 

MTC2 Previews - 101072/530279 1474124.64 3942 shows // +4660 in 3 days

 

Now only 82 shows errored out(2k ish tickets). So more theaters are coming online/  

[Flip]

On 7/9/2024 at 10:44 PM, Flip said:

Longlegs (T-2)

 

7 showtimes/327 tickets sold (+75)

3.72x Watchers (T-2) [3.72m]

.77x AQP Day One (T-2) [5.24m]

 

More than doubled my goal, mainly due to two more shows being added. The only problem is that these shows are later in the night, so growth + walkups shouldn’t be that strong. Tomorrow hopefully 1 or 2 more shows will be added (to at least equal Watchers) and at least 80 tickets sold

Longlegs (T-1)

 

8 showtimes/414 tickets sold (+87)

4.02x Watchers (T-1) [4.02m]

.81x AQP Day One (T-1) [5.53m]

 

good growth again. I’m not going to set a goal for tomorrow since screen constraints will prevent any massive growth.

[Flip]

On 7/8/2024 at 10:24 PM, Flip said:

Twisters (T-10) 2 days of sales

 

15 showtimes/75 tix sold (+2)

 

Pace is almost nonexistent.

 

.64x Bad Boys 4 (T-10) [3.78m]

 

Twisters (T-8) 2 days of sales

 

15 showtimes/89 tix sold (+14)

 

.71x Bad Boys 4 (T-8) [4.12m]

 

Sold 13 tickets in the last day, which was equal to the last NINE days of sales. Hopefully the acceleration is starting (finally)

[excel1]

Trap will hopefully breakout thanks for you know who. 

[Cmasterclay]

It Ends With Us has 18 million trailer views and got tons of social media buzz, including from people I know "IRL." I'm not willing to predict a breakout just yet, but kind of feel like that means at least something.

[TalismanRing]

My theater just doubled the preview shows for Longlegs - from 2 to 4 and added a 6th to Friday.   That very rarely happens this late - especially for smaller films.

 

 

 

Edited July 11 by TalismanRing

[ThomasNicole]

17 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Trap will hopefully breakout thanks for you know who. 

The last trailer was quite big viral on tiktok, the show concept is generating a lot of buzz 

 

It can surprise like Longlegs imo, i don´t think it´ll be acclaimed or something like that, but decent reviews like Knock at the Cabin should be enough

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Fly Me To The Moon: 

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 3 Tickets

Theater 2: 10 Tickets 

 

The Fall Guy: $2.65M

Argylle: $2.21M

ABY: $.34M

MBFGW3: $.51M

Strays: $1.23M

NHF: $1.86M

TtP: $.62M

 

Some rises. Not much. Will say $1.5M for now

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 10 Tickets

Theater 2: 2 Tickets 

 

The Fall Guy: $3.26M

Argylle: $4.79M

ABY: $1.37M

MBFGW3: $.62M

Strays: $3.49M

NHF: $10.09M

TtP: $1.41M

 

another set of wide comps. Looking best around $3M-$4M

Fly Me To The Moon:

 

Thursday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 7 Tickets

Theater 2: 14 Tickets 

 

The Fall Guy: $3.27M

Argylle: $3.25M

ABY: $.32M

MBFGW3: $.61M

Strays: $2.23M

NHF: $3.01M

TtP: $1.05M

 

Comps going up. Suspiciously up. Will go around $2M-$3M for now.

 

Friday Comps:

 

Theater 1: 12 Tickets

Theater 2: 2 Tickets 

 

The Fall Guy: $3.11M

Argylle: $2.58M

ABY: $.77M

MBFGW3: $.60M

Strays: $2.72M

NHF: $3.27M

TtP: $.94M

 

Weak day of sales. Will come back, but based on these comps, $3M.

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Longlegs: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 45 Tickets

Theater 2: 23 Tickets

 

Challengers: $4.14M

Civil War: $10.88M

FNAF: $3.09M

Talk to Me: $8.47M

Evil Dead Rise: $3.86M

TBP: $6.45M

The Northman: $5.60M

 

Comps still too suspiciously high, but Theater 1 ain't climbing as high as normal horror now. Will still say $3M-$4M for now.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 41 Tickets

Theater 2: 22 Tickets

 

MaXXXine: $4.38M

Challengers: $5.97M

Civil War: $29.34M

FNAF: $2.88M

Talk to Me: $31.01M

Evil Dead Rise: $15.95M

TBP: $13.82M

The Northman: $5.57M

 

Some wild comps, but looking somewhere between $4M-$6M

Longlegs:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 56 Tickets

Theater 2: 37 Tickets

 

Challengers: $4.20M

Civil War: $9.70M

FNAF: $3.35M

Talk to Me: $5.51M

Evil Dead Rise: $4.74M

TBP: $5.01M

The Northman: $6.20M

 

Comps are converging. Going for $3.5M-$4.5M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 57 Tickets

Theater 2: 34 Tickets

 

MaXXXine: $5.54M

Challengers: $4.72M

Civil War: $26.68M

FNAF: $3.57M

Talk to Me: $16.79M

Evil Dead Rise: $10.50M

TBP: $8.45M

The Northman: $7.19M

 

Narrowing between $4.5M-$5.5M

 

The mini-breakout hype is real. 

[keysersoze123]

On 7/9/2024 at 8:25 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Longlegs MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 28705/120977 432291.38 1121 shows +6985

Friday - 26637/264980 386715.87 2454 shows +8493

 

Not a day with major acceleration but pace is still great. I am expecting it to hit 38-39K by tomorrow and 75k ish finish. OD should hit 60k+ by presales end and finish 120K ish. Should be enough for double digit OD with previews even with lower ATP. I will stick with low 20s OW. 

Longlegs MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 39094/144141 585367.07 1317 shows +10389

Friday - 37086/281268 538112.00 2590 shows +10449

MTC2 Previews - 16370/99647 209036.42 1133 shows

 

MTC2 is bit earlier in the day. But this is another very good day. I think 80K is possible as the genre does great with walkups and TMobile deal should play a part every day till Sunday. Friday should hit 65K+ by tomorrow and 130K+ finish. I am going to bump up my previews to 3.5m.  

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Longlegs MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 39094/144141 585367.07 1317 shows +10389

Friday - 37086/281268 538112.00 2590 shows +10449

MTC2 Previews - 16370/99647 209036.42 1133 shows

 

MTC2 is bit earlier in the day. But this is another very good day. I think 80K is possible as the genre does great with walkups and TMobile deal should play a part every day till Sunday. Friday should hit 65K+ by tomorrow and 130K+ finish. I am going to bump up my previews to 3.5m.  

The Friday number is encouraging, was worried about potential frontloading after what happened with MaXXXine last week.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

The Friday number is encouraging, was worried about potential frontloading after what happened with MaXXXine last week.

Previews are starting only at 7PM or later. So It should have good IM as preview shows are more limited. MaXXXine unfortunately was more niche. This should play better than that for sure. Even with some frontloading on Friday I am expecting low 20s OW. 

[Ryan C]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Previews are starting only at 7PM or later. So It should have good IM as preview shows are more limited. MaXXXine unfortunately was more niche. This should play better than that for sure. Even with some frontloading on Friday I am expecting low 20s OW. 

 

If a completely original horror movie like Longlegs (also not released by any of the major studios) is able to hit $20M this weekend, that should prove the "horror genre is in a slump" narrative dead. Can't wait for that!

[JonathanMB]

Post-COVID, the only $20M+ openers to open in under 3,000 theaters have been Renaissance and Demon Slayer: Mugen Train, and the former was dragged over the mark by the wild surcharges. If Longlegs can get above that mark, and as an original film without a built=in fanbase, that would be one of the most impressive box office feats of the last few years.

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0)

07/11/24

Longlegs - 215 tickets sold

Fly Me to the Moon - 22 tickets sold

 

COMPS:

Longlegs

1.71x of Civil War ($4.95M)

1.89x of Maxxxine ($6.01M)

5.81x of In A Violent Nature ($2.38M)

16.54x of Immaculate ($9.10M)

AVERAGE: $5.61M

 

Fly Me to the Moon

0.15x of Mean Girls ($474K)

0.18x of Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire ($848K)

0.28x of The Fall Guy ($646K)

0.42x of Challengers ($677K)

AVERAGE: $661K

 

THE LEGS HAVE NEVER BEEN LONGER HOLY SHIT

Longlegs did absolutely phenomenal at my theaters, it sold considerably more than GODZILLA X KONG and is the third best seller for THU at my market ever! (only behind Dune 2 and IO2). Even against a collection of noted overindexing comps at my market, it still put up an INSANELY good $5.6M THU average (comps like AQP and Tarot were pushing $13M+ lmao). Obviously my market is scorching hot for this and I don't expect a $40M+ OW like that average would suggest, but this is easily on track to be the biggest original horror breakout since M3GAN or even earlier. $3.6-4M THU and a $27-32M OW is where I think this is headed. As for the other new wide release this weekend, Fly Me to the Moon is decidedly more earth-bound. Very weak sub-$700K avg likely meaning pretty rough things even with the EA burnout. $650-750K THU and a $9-11M OW?

[keysersoze123]

On 7/9/2024 at 11:56 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Fly me to moon MTC1

Previews - 3931/119410 54805.61 1109 shows

Friday - 4152/183394 57967.04 1684 shows

 

One word is ouch. Probably looking high single digits OW due to the star cast.  

Fly me to moon MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 7500/127083 104589.26 1199 shows 

Friday - 7718/198072 108202.74 1839 shows 

 

It has sold overall less than what longlegs sold today 🙂 Could even stop at 6-7m OW. 

[Unfitclock]

Damn I really thought Channing Tatum could bring in people especially with the t-mobile deal