The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

19 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Is the demand really huge enough for it to warrant such night screenings?? Did MoM or NWH have such screenings? Would most just go to a earlier screening or early friday morning

Those AM showings are selling really well, so maybe more were added that's why i've just noticed it (Seems mostly isolated to MTC3)

[AniNate]

Deadline now saying "near $3m" for longlegs

 

https://deadline.com/2024/07/box-office-longlegs-fly-me-to-the-moon-channing-tatum-nicolas-cage-1236008154/

[keysersoze123]

46 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Those technically are listed under previews.   I think after 6am they get listed under the new day.  IIRC the last Harry Potter started this.  I knows SW and the last couple of Avengers had 1am, 3am etc previews.

Way before that. Dark Knight played on Imax entire weekend 24x7 during its OW. Revenge of the Sith also play through the weekend in 2005. 

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Deadline now saying "near $3m" for longlegs

 

https://deadline.com/2024/07/box-office-longlegs-fly-me-to-the-moon-channing-tatum-nicolas-cage-1236008154/

 

If Longlegs stays firm, it could bode for a $10M-$15M opening; some even buzzing it could best Apple Original Film/Sony’s Scarlett Johansson-Channing Tatum rom-com, Fly Me to the Moon, which was projected to do $12M. That movie is currently seeing $800K-$900K after shows that began at 3PM. However, Fly Me to the Moon isn’t a Thursday night crowd type of movie, more Friday night and Saturday. Originally, Longlegs was projected to do in the high single digits.

 

$10m off $2.5-3m in previews  Woo!  A possible 3.33-4 internal multi.  Let's go crazy!

 

Ah Deadline, never change.

[Flip]

57 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Those technically are listed under previews.   I think after 6am they get listed under the new day.  IIRC the last Harry Potter started this.  I knows SW and the last couple of Avengers had 1am, 3am etc previews.

Oppenheimer had IMAX shows at 1AM due to demand

[Flip]

23 hours ago, Flip said:

Twisters (T-8) 2 days of sales

 

15 showtimes/89 tix sold (+14)

 

.71x Bad Boys 4 (T-8) [4.12m]

 

Sold 13 tickets in the last day, which was equal to the last NINE days of sales. Hopefully the acceleration is starting (finally)

Twisters Previews (T-7)

 

15 showtimes/98 tix sold (+9)

 

.75x Bad Boys 4 (T-7) [4.43m]

 

A little under what I expected, especially considering reviews dropped today, but maybe that effect will be felt tomorrow.

[keysersoze123]

During Dark Knight era, we did not even have the ability to track ticket sales as there were no reserved seats. So only metric we could track were sellouts. We lost BOM forum thread but there is one at KJ. 

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fly me to moon MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 7500/127083 104589.26 1199 shows 

Friday - 7718/198072 108202.74 1839 shows 

 

It has sold overall less than what longlegs sold today 🙂 Could even stop at 6-7m OW. 

Fly me to moon MTC1

Previews Final - 16605/127035 222075.50 1205 shows +9105

Friday - 11286/202545 155865.73 1875 shows +3568

MTC2 Previews - 12147/126953 154520.20 1253 shows

 

walkups were not terrible for sure. I dont know what the early shows BO would be but thursday should be around 800Kish. I think it will do 8-9m OW. 

[excel1]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

During Dark Knight era, we did not even have the ability to track ticket sales as there were no reserved seats. So only metric we could track were sellouts. We lost BOM forum thread but there is one at KJ. 

 

We would get random reports from movie tickets.com saying "$10m already sold", or websites crashing when they went ala TDKR. Good times. It is cooling being more aware up front now but the surprises back then were great.

[charlie Jatinder]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fly me to moon MTC1

Previews Final - 16605/127035 222075.50 1205 shows +9105

Friday - 11286/202545 155865.73 1875 shows +3568

MTC2 Previews - 12147/126953 154520.20 1253 shows

 

walkups were not terrible for sure. I dont know what the early shows BO would be but thursday should be around 800Kish. I think it will do 8-9m OW. 

Is MTC2 running fast now?

[Flip]

On 7/9/2024 at 10:52 PM, Flip said:

Longlegs Friday  (T-3)

 

12 showtimes/325 tickets sold 

 

1.29x Longlegs Previews (T-3) [???]
.34x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-3) [17.19m]

The IO2 comp is going to plummet (plus I think it underindexed a fair amount for me) but it’s encouraging that it’s not very frontloaded. However, there is the same problem Thursday has where there isn’t much space for growth in the current shows; more need to be added.

Longlegs Friday  (T-1)

 

15 showtimes/561 tickets sold (+236)

 

1.36x Longlegs Previews (T-1) [~4.08m]
.29x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-1) [14.66m]

 

Obviously won’t reach that IO2 number (walk ups will be much weaker and IO2 underindexed for me), but I’d be surprised if it hits that 4m number as well. 
 

Prediction: 5-6m

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is MTC2 running fast now?

Its ok for small show count movies. It ran in 2.5 hrs. 

[keysersoze123]

29 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

We would get random reports from movie tickets.com saying "$10m already sold", or websites crashing when they went ala TDKR. Good times. It is cooling being more aware up front now but the surprises back then were great.

Yah. Even on thursday evening of the release Xiayun(who used to be the GOAT of BO prediction) gave it only 10% to break OW record 🙂

[Migs20242]

52 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fly me to moon MTC1

Previews Final - 16605/127035 222075.50 1205 shows +9105

Friday - 11286/202545 155865.73 1875 shows +3568

MTC2 Previews - 12147/126953 154520.20 1253 shows

 

walkups were not terrible for sure. I dont know what the early shows BO would be but thursday should be around 800Kish. I think it will do 8-9m OW. 

How about longlegs?

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, thajdikt said:

Is the demand really huge enough for it to warrant such night screenings?? Did MoM or NWH have such screenings? Would most just go to a earlier screening or early friday morning

 

In a vacuum?  Sure.  But DP3 is the type of movie that's going to have a very strong appeal to the college age folks who like to stay up late as well as Night Owls in general.  Now most films that have this sort of appeal don't have the raw ticket demand to make 1am-5am showtimes worth it.  Those sorts of things usually start showing up at 40m+'ers.   

 

But in cities/areas with a strong nightlife community?  Or just a ton of people?  Sure, seeing showtimes in the 1am to 6am corridor makes sense... since it's plausible that the audience is there.  Or at least enough of it.

 

FWIW, while Sacramento isn't quite the bedroom community it once was, the latest showtimes we have at the moment are in the 12:01a to 12:30a range.  The sheer "running out of capacity" that was seen in things like NWH and EG (or for separate reasons Barbenhiemer) isn't remotely on the radar here. 

 

But I could see some 1am showtimes eventually make its way here. 

Edited July 12 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Longlegs MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 39094/144141 585367.07 1317 shows +10389

Friday - 37086/281268 538112.00 2590 shows +10449

MTC2 Previews - 16370/99647 209036.42 1133 shows

 

MTC2 is bit earlier in the day. But this is another very good day. I think 80K is possible as the genre does great with walkups and TMobile deal should play a part every day till Sunday. Friday should hit 65K+ by tomorrow and 130K+ finish. I am going to bump up my previews to 3.5m.  

Longlegs MTC1

Previews Final - 70979/161276 1041293.08 +31885

Friday - 56447/304689 807706.88 2798 shows +19361

MTC2 Previews - 41860/121318 531299.28 1346 shows

 

 

Walkups were good but not as much as i expected. Still should be good for 3m+ previews. I am bumping down OW to late teens. 

 

[Migs20242]

 

[Rorschach]

On 7/11/2024 at 1:23 AM, Rorschach said:

Longlegs (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday:

3 2D showings: 65/201 (32.3% sold) [+20]

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $2.69 mil

Watchers: $3.1 mil

Quiet Place: $4.6 mil

Average: $3.46 mil

 

Friday:

7 2D showings: 112/480 (23.3% sold) [+16]

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $8.56 mil

Watchers: $13.32 mil

Quiet Place: $13.24 mil

Average: $11.71 mil

 

Thurs + Fri: 177/681 (26% sold) [+36]

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $11.28 mil

Watchers: $13.89 mil

Quiet Place: $17.41 mil

Average: $14.19 mil

 

 

Blockbuster numbers compared to what Fly Me to the Moon is doing here (didn't bother tracking it, but all I'll say is... 😬). 

 

Anyways, this is still holding very strong against all comps, even though Friday's growth slowed a bit since most of the traffic is going to the two evening showings – both of which are getting very close to full capacity. Strong numbers overall, though. Hard to say anything definitive, but even if this does get partially capped off by its lower theater count + screen capacity, this should, at the very least, do high single-digits OD (and hopefully, if the stars align, double?). Either way, exciting stuff.

 

Not sure if I'll be able to check Thursday preview numbers tomorrow. Work has been crazy for me this week. But I will try!

Longlegs (Thursday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday: 182/956 (19% sold) [+70]

2 XD showings: 24/476

7 2D showings: 158/480

 

Comps:

Strangers Chp. 1: $8.87 mil

Watchers: $10.83 mil

Quiet Place: $15.39 mil

Average: $11.7 mil

 

 

Alas, just as I expected, work was hell today, so I was unable to check preview showings, unfortunately. I did, however, treat myself to seeing this at my local Regal, so that more than made up for my cruddy day. PACKED theater, too! Insanely good film to watch with a full house. 

 

Anyway, I'm glad to see that my old Cinemark added two evening XD showings today (splitting with Inside Out 2). It's funny, in hindsight, seeing that they added an extra theater for Fly Me to the Moon earlier this week, and most of those showings for tomorrow are still nearly empty, save for one of the early afternoon showtimes. 

 

Feeling very confident about this crossing that double-digit OD threshold, though I can't say by how much. If that Strangers comp is anything to go off, I'd guess $11-12M. Could easily fall a little short of that, but with the later start times yesterday, my gut feeling is that True Friday will finish closer to 3x previews than 2x. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/9/2024 at 1:49 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-17 Days

 

Previews - 11735/86864 (334 showings) 

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $40M

Thor 4 - $37M

GoTG 3 ~ $38.5M

Deadpool 3 MiniTC2 T-14 Days

 

Previews - 12537/86875 (334 showings)
Friday - 8796/135810 (543 showings)
Saturday - 6985/137672 (544 showings)

 

Comps

Black Panther 2 - $38.5M

Thor 4 - $36M & $58M

GoTG 3 - $38M & $67M

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/9/2024 at 9:13 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Longlegs MiniTC2 T-3 Days

 

Previews - 817/10354 (58 showings)

 

Comps

Scream VI - $2M

AQP: One Day - $4.4M

Exorcist: Believer - $3.6M

 

Talk to Me - $5.6M

 

Except TTM, the other 3 comps have either increased with time or remained the same (Exorcist).

Longlegs MiniTC 2 Final

 

Previews - 6031/19974 (113 showings) $75K

 

Good finish. Normally would mean $3.5M+ previews, so probably over-indexed here.