The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

On 7/12/2024 at 6:12 AM, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, T-7 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 32

New Sales : 3

Growth: 33%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.5

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 71

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 4/7

Early Evening: 28/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 20/8

IMAX: 6/6

4DX: 6/3

 

Previews Comps

1.600x Fall Guy for $5.0M

0.427x KOTPOTA for $2.1M

0.552x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $3.2M

0.152x HG: BoSS for $0.9M

0.323x Furiosa for $1.1M

 

Comps with EA rolled into previews 

1.373x KOTPOTA for $6.9M

1.776x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $8.9M

0.490x HG: BoSS for $2.5M

1.040x Furiosa for $5.2M

 

EA Comp

1.449x Fall Guy for $1.2M

 

It had a pretty good day.

 

Twisters, T-6 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 34

New Sales : 2

Growth: 6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 21

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.6

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 84

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 1/7

Early Evening: 33/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/3

Dolby: 20/8

IMAX: 8/6

4DX: 6/3

 

Previews Comps

1.478x Fall Guy for $4.7M

0.410x KOTPOTA for $2.0M

0.557x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $3.3M

0.149x HG: BoSS for $0.9M

0.324x Furiosa for $1.1M

 

Comps with EA rolled into previews 

1.422x KOTPOTA for $7.1M

1.934x Bad Boys Ride or Die for $9.7M

0.518x HG: BoSS for $2.6M

1.124x Furiosa for $5.6M

 

EA Comp

1.527x Fall Guy for $1.2M

 

Not a particularly strong day. Previews weren't great. EA still shows growth.

 

In the final week, the only thing I feel I can definitively say is that it will outperform The Fall Guy. With a similar EA strategy, it's outperforming it consistently by 50% for both EA and previews. And Goslings Canadian connection makes me feel that FG had a better chance at outperforming Twisters, which seems middle America focused.

 

But it's hard to gleam much from the rest of the comps. We'll see what final week looks like.

[vafrow]

On 7/6/2024 at 8:52 AM, vafrow said:

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-20, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2213

New Sales since T-27: 151

Growth: 7%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 54.0

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 289/13

Early Evening: 1145/14

Late Evening: 779/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (1795/21)

Regular: 20/1

Dolby: 463/5

IMAX: 864/4

VIP: 420/8

4DX: 28/3

 

3D (418/20)

Regular: 70/2

Dolby: 164/4

IMAX: 45/2

VIP: 139/6

 

Comps 

3.078x Dune 2 (w/ EA) for $36.9M

0.859x Eras Tour (unadjusted for ATP) for $32.3M

 

Still nothing too exciting. I'll be sticking with weekly updates on this until final week, but even then, I'm not sure if there's much value in dailies given the effort to do manual counts on this track. Especially with a lack of comps.

 

 

Deadpool and Wolverine, T-13, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2550

New Sales since T-20: 337

Growth: 15%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 41

Tickets per Showtime: 62.2

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 358/13

Early Evening: 1292/14

Late Evening: 900/14

 

Sales by Format

Non 3D (2023/21)

Regular: 25/1

Dolby: 540/5

IMAX: 941/4

VIP: 457/8

4DX: 60/3

 

3D (527/20)

Regular: 79/2

Dolby: 221/4

IMAX: 50/2

VIP: 177/6

 

Comps 

2.693x Dune 2 (w/ EA) for $32.3M

0.909x Eras Tour (unadjusted for ATP) for $34.3M

7.328x The Marvels for $48.4M 

 

Average: $38.3M

 

Sales pace picked up, from 1% a day to 2%. We should be on the upswing.

 

Comps still aren't the most useful. The good news is I now have a MCU comp. The bad news is that it's The Marvels.

 

This is the last day I tracked Eras Tour, so that'll drop off for the next update.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Fly Me to the Moon (Fri) - 182/4,325 (50 shows)

Longlegs (Fri) - 1,208/4,965 (51 shows)

 

Fly Me comps

 - Ticket to Paradise - .277x (1.47m)

 - Challengers - .778x (3.19m)

 - Easter Sunday - .731x (1.12m)

 - Bullet Train - .201x (1.66m)

 

Adjusted comps

 - Paradise - 2.31m

 - Challengers - 1.82m

 - Easter - 1.15m

 - Bullet Train - 1.76m

 - Civil War - 1.79m

 - Elvis - 2.32m

 - Barbie - 2.08m

 

This is really disappointing.  Looking like around 2.1m for true Friday

 

Longlegs comps

 - Nope - .652x (8.57m)

 - Don't Worry Darling - 1.389x (8.84m)

 - Crawdads - 1.518x (7.99m)

 - Strangers - 1.017x (3.86m)

 

Adjusted comps

 - Nope - 7.78m

 - Don't Worry - 8.53m

 - Crawdads - 9.39m

 - Strangers - 5.64m

 - Tarot - 5.58m

 - First Omen - 5.69m

 

I'm thinking around 5.75m for true Friday.

Santikos Tracking

 

Fly Me to the Moon (Sat) - 271/4,269 (48 shows)

Longlegs (Sat) - 1,061/5,117 (53 shows)

 

Fly Me comps

 - Ticket to Paradise - .42x (2.57m)

 - Challengers - 1.02x (5.07m)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.36x (2.45m)

 - Bullet Train - .269x (2.6m)

 

No numbers for Friday yet so no adjusted comps.  Tentatively looking like 2.75m Saturday

 

Longlegs comps

 - Nope - .576x (8.02m)

 - Don't Worry Darling - 1.76x (10.17m)

 - Crawdads - 1.303x (6.98m)

 - Strangers - 1.449x (5.8m)

 

Adjusted comps

 - Nope - 6.56m

 - Don't Worry - 8.05m

 - Crawdads - 6.11m

 - Strangers - 10.5m

 - Tarot - 7.36m

 

I'm thinking around 6.7m for Saturday.

[CIDMoosa]

On 7/4/2024 at 3:05 AM, AniNate said:

Never really understood why people were bullish on It Ends with Us. Blake Lively is hardly a draw and seems just as likely to be another forgettable weepie as a surprise hit.

 

Still a bolder Twisters predict than I'm feeling, does seem to be selling pretty well in Caucasian-majority areas but I think it needs at least some level of urban interest to get those high numbers. I looked at the Cinemark closest to downtown LA and the early access screening has still only sold one ticket.

Blake Lively is definitely a draw among millennial women.

[AniNate]

I can see it doing like Simple Favor numbers in optimal circumstances

[CIDMoosa]

Just now, AniNate said:

I can see it doing like Simple Favor numbers in optimal circumstances

ASF made 'just' 96mn WW. 100mn WW for It Ends with Us would be a worst case scenario.

[Flopped]

How is Longlegs holding up in terms of today's sales?

[John Marston]

I said it before, Twisters was doomed by its release date. People are saving their money for the big event next week. It doesn’t matter if one is R and one is PG-13 because in the end the majority of audience for both films are adults. Universal should have swapped the film with DM4. They all but sabotaged this film with its release date 

[TheFlatLannister]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I said it before, Twisters was doomed by its release date. People are saving their money for the big event next week. It doesn’t matter if one is R and one is PG-13 because in the end the majority of audience for both films are adults. Universal should have swapped the film with DM4. They all but sabotaged this film with its release date 

I think it’s more of an interest thing. Would Twisters be a mega hit in a different slot? Maybe, but I highly doubt it. Barbenheimer showed people are willing to see two films in close proximity as long they are interested. 

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I think it’s more of an interest thing. Would Twisters be a mega hit in a different slot? Maybe, but I highly doubt it. Barbenheimer showed people are willing to see two films in close proximity as long they are interested. 

 

Twisters will drop 60+% second weekend regardless of what it opens to due to what’s opening the following week. More comparable to Dead Reckoning 

Edited July 13 by John Marston

[filmlover]

I mean, a $50M opening for Twisters was always the dream goal. This was always the biggest wild card of the summer after Furiosa (which fizzled due to audience apathy more than anything else), so if this comes on the lower end of tracking that would indicate this was never going to be an event.

[AniNate]

Really who knows. I think interest is picking up and I also don't think this is completely comparable to Dead Reckoning v Barbenheimer. Shawn sticking to his guns on his $70mil ish opening and good legs projection so he may very well know something we don't. 

 

Seeing now that Canton added an extra 10PM Wednesday EA screening. The 7PM one is filled up pretty good.

 

 

Edited July 13 by AniNate

[lorddemaxus]

33 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Twisters will drop 60+% second weekend regardless of what it opens to due to what’s opening the following week. More comparable to Dead Reckoning 

Deadpool 3 isn’t opening big enough for this to be comparable to Dead Reckoning lol. There’s still going to be a Oppenheimer sized gap. Would love to see some data that an opener of Deadpool 3’s size has affected another movie like that, especially in the middle of the summer.

Edited July 13 by lorddemaxus

[AniNate]

Barbie acted as another PG-13 option that took away from DR both as an Oppenheimer sneak-in ruse and as a legit interest in its own right. Twisters won't have to deal with that against Deadpool, my theory is it could actually benefit from DP spillovers and being the most convincing teen sneak-in option and older family viewing choice that weekend, especially if it is in fact aiming to appeal to more conservative Midwest/South audiences.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 13 by AniNate

[Flip]

The thing is Deadpool will be smaller than Barbenheimer without a doubt, and there is a possibility that it’s smaller than even Barbie (talking about OW). But the main concern is that there might be too much overlap between the audiences of Twisters and the audiences of Deadpool 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Flopped said:

How is Longlegs holding up in terms of today's sales?

Looks about flat from Friday minus previews  

 

If Deadpool & Wolverine don’t make it to $200m after all, I don’t see why Twisters would drop 60%. 

Edited July 13 by Krissykins

[John Marston]

23 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Deadpool 3 isn’t opening big enough for this to be comparable to Dead Reckoning lol. There’s still going to be a Oppenheimer sized gap. Would love to see some data that an opener of Deadpool 3’s size has affected another movie like that, especially in the middle of the summer.

 

 

Deadpool 3 will open to about 180m and take away screens and action crowd audiences 

[AnthonyJPHer]

Twisters opening to 50m would be pretty meh, especially considering its budget, so even if it held well against Deadpool, it wouldn’t really save this. It needs 500m WW to break even. And at least 700m to even pull a profit. I’m wondering where Shawn is getting his 70m prediction from. It’d have to have the best walk up’s of all time to get there. 

[Ryan C]

25 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Looks about flat from Friday minus previews  

 

If Deadpool & Wolverine don’t make it to $200m after all, I don’t see why Twisters would drop 60%. 

 

So, $21M is where we should expect Longlegs to end up at by tomorrow morning?

[Krissykins]

18 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Twisters opening to 50m would be pretty meh, especially considering its budget, so even if it held well against Deadpool, it wouldn’t really save this. It needs 500m WW to break even. And at least 700m to even pull a profit. I’m wondering where Shawn is getting his 70m prediction from. It’d have to have the best walk up’s of all time to get there. 

Why would it need a certain amount to breakeven, but $200m more to make profit….? 
 

That math ain’t mathin

Edited July 13 by Krissykins