The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[lorddemaxus]

28 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Deadpool 3 will open to about 180m and take away screens and action crowd audiences 

Like I said 180 mil stil leaves an Oppenheimer sized gap. D&W would need to be more like a 250 mil+ opener or Twisters would need to be bad. 

[CJohn]

36 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Like I said 180 mil stil leaves an Oppenheimer sized gap. D&W would need to be more like a 250 mil+ opener or Twisters would need to be bad. 

This doesn't make sense. It assumes every weekend has a big sized hole. The Barbenheimer weekend was the biggest weekend of all time. That phenom which combined did like 240M is not comparable to anything. Deadpool will suck the air out of anything around it and 170M+ is enough for that.

[lorddemaxus]

Just now, CJohn said:

This doesn't make sense. It assumes every weekend has a big sized hole. The Barbenheimer weekend was the biggest weekend of all time. That phenom which combined did like 240M is not comparable to anything. Deadpool will suck the air out of anything around it and 170M+ is enough for that.

Yes, practically every weekend has enough capacity to have holdovers do big numbers in the face of big releases (assuming the holdover has interest). The only exceptions are ones like Endgame or Barbenheimer. Deadpool 3 isn’t going to be big enough to overshadow Twisters like that. 170 mil+ could’ve been big enough like a decade ago but not in 2024

[AniNate]

When Doctor Strange opened to $180mil+ in 2022 everything more or less averaged a normal 50% drop.

 

Heck, even against Barbenheimer MIDR was the only movie that really had a bad hold which wasn't impacted by a big loss in theaters. You can't assume that Twisters will perform the same way.

[PenguinHyphy]

Hasn't Twisters already opened overseas in some major territories? Are the numbers terrible? 

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

When Doctor Strange opened to $180mil+ in 2022 everything more or less averaged a normal 50% drop.

 

Heck, even against Barbenheimer MIDR was the only movie that really had a bad hold which wasn't impacted by a big loss in theaters. You can't assume that Twisters will perform the same way.

 

Twisters will be losing screens. It also will be going up against direct competition for the action blockbuster crowd

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Deadpool 3 isn’t opening big enough for this to be comparable to Dead Reckoning lol. There’s still going to be a Oppenheimer sized gap. Would love to see some data that an opener of Deadpool 3’s size has affected another movie like that, especially in the middle of the summer.

 

There doesn't need to be $260m worth of openers to affect a film severely the second w/e.  Loss of showtimes and PLFs (and Twisters will be PLF heavy) and just no longer being the IT film can do a lot of damage.  An opening of $50m film dropping 69%  v say 55% or even 60%t is significant enough one should move their film. 

 

A few

 

Shazam - John Wick 4:  -69%

Godzilla & XMen DOFP : -66.8%

X-Men Origins: Wolverine and Star Trek:  -69%

 

Middle of Summer

 

Hellboy 2 and The Dark Knight:  -71%

HP DH2 and CA: The First Avenger:  -72%

 

 

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

This doesn't make sense. It assumes every weekend has a big sized hole. The Barbenheimer weekend was the biggest weekend of all time. That phenom which combined did like 240M is not comparable to anything. Deadpool will suck the air out of anything around it and 170M+ is enough for that.

 

$117m combined less than Endgame.   

 

Overall the Top 50 was $90m lower than Endgame's w/e (not including about 17% ticket inflation)

 

 $310,861,776 v $401,994,732 

Edited July 14 by TalismanRing

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

The Barbenheimer weekend was the biggest weekend of all time.

Uhhh…. Not even close to close?

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

When Doctor Strange opened to $180mil+ in 2022 everything more or less averaged a normal 50% drop.

 

Heck, even against Barbenheimer MIDR was the only movie that really had a bad hold which wasn't impacted by a big loss in theaters. You can't assume that Twisters will perform the same way.

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2022/05/06

 

Against DS2 none of the films were in their 2nd weekend and there's a reason why. 

 

No other film hit $10m. The highest being the animated Bad Guys in it's 3rd w/e at 41% at $9.57m

 

The 3rd w/e and beyond is when films usually stabilized into the 30s and low 40s -  Fantastic Beats hit 49%.  Sonic hit 48%

 

[lorddemaxus]

25 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

There doesn't need to be $260m worth of openers to affect a film severely the second w/e.  Loss of showtimes and PLFs (and Twisters will be PLF heavy) and just no longer being the IT film can do a lot of damage.  An opening of $50m film dropping 69%  v say 55% or even 60%t is significant enough one should move their film. 

 

A few

 

Shazam - John Wick 4:  -69%

Godzilla & XMen DOFP : -66.8%

X-Men Origins: Wolverine and Star Trek:  -69%

 

Middle of Summer

 

Hellboy 2 and The Dark Knight:  -71%

HP DH2 and CA: The First Avenger:  -72%

 

 

All the films you mentioned would’ve done as badly as they did even if there weren’t a big opening that following weekend (the first 3 had bad WoM and the last one already had one of the most front loaded weekends ever for a blockbuster). The only exception is Hellboy 2 but a TDK size opener in 2008 is much, much bigger (closer to Barbenheimer than Deadpool 3) than one in 2024. If people think Twisters sucks, sure, 60%+ incoming. But it’s not going to be an assured onslaught especially if it gets an A cinemascore (which something like Dead Reckoning had)

Edited July 14 by lorddemaxus

[THUNDER BIRD]

Debating over 2nd weekend drop when the first weekend is a week away.

[keysersoze123]

20 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews(T-13) - 230503/1288803 4199319.05 7925 shows +4587

 

Good day as it hit final 2 week stretch. 

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews(T-12) - 234816/1290467 4272283.08 7937 shows +4313

 

This is 24 hours of data. Compared to Thor its high teens % higher but pace is lower. It wont finish that high. I am sticking low 30s previews. Expect gap to lower to around +10% by T-7 which will  be my final report for this movie. I think only comps with 2022 will be from @Porthos, @katnisscinnaplex, @charlie Jatinder and of course @rehpyc has also promised comp for TC. I hope things go crazy in the final week. 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 7/10/2024 at 8:41 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-15

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
230	9438	44009	21.4%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

347

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-15

(1.834x) of GOTG 3 $32.10M

Starting its acceleration. Expecting a massive final two weeks based on last few days of pace

 

*For Fun 

(2.353x) of Barbenheimer $74.43M

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
230	9970	44009	22.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

173

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-12

(1.841x) of GOTG 3 $32.21M

Definite acceleration. Going to have to pace really well in the last two weeks to really threaten for $40M previews. Probably strong reactions x reviews can help it get close. 

 

*For Fun 

(2.088x) of Barbenheimer $65.97M

[Ryan C]

6 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ORLANDO

 

Deadpool x Wolverine 

 

Thursday 

 

T-12

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
230	9970	44009	22.3%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

173

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-12

(1.841x) of GOTG 3 $32.21M

Definite acceleration. Going to have to pace really well in the last two weeks to really threaten for $40M previews. Probably strong reactions x reviews can help it get close. 

 

*For Fun 

(2.088x) of Barbenheimer $65.97M

 

I know Marvel movies are extremely frontloaded, but if this does manage to hit $40M in previews, does that guarantee a $200M opening?

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

I know Marvel movies are extremely frontloaded, but if this does manage to hit $40M in previews, does that guarantee a $200M opening?

Not 100% guarantee, would be pretty likely. IM likely low 5s but could flex around to mid 5s or high 4s depending on various factors 

[Ryan C]

4 minutes ago, Joyous Legion said:

Not 100% guarantee, would be pretty likely. IM likely low 5s but could flex around to mid 5s or high 4s depending on various factors 

 

I'm just saying that because if that happens, it's clear both demand and word-of-mouth is strong for the movie and that'll only be more prominent throughout the weekend. 

 

I don't wanna set myself up for disappointment, but I just have this feeling that Deadpool and Wolverine is gonna go crazy in the last week of pre-sales. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

5 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

I'm just saying that because if that happens, it's clear both demand and word-of-mouth is strong for the movie and that'll only be more prominent throughout the weekend. 

 

I don't wanna set myself up for disappointment, but I just have this feeling that Deadpool and Wolverine is gonna go crazy in the last week of pre-sales. 

All you need is reactions for those 40 minutes to be the reactions for all 2 hours and the work is done. 

[THUNDER BIRD]

Those first 40 minutes are insane, i can't tell due to spoilers, but experience i had was great.

[Maaatt]

On 7/12/2024 at 5:05 AM, Eric Onion said:

I don't like using the whole "who is the audience for this" for movies, but in Harold's case...who does this actually appeal to?

I imagine fans of the original source material maybe? Harold & the Purple Crayon is the first book of an apparently beloved children’s book series that was first published in the 50’s and has continued to be a children's book staple in the decades since  (I myself don’t recall ever reading it or at least it never left a lasting impression and don’t have kids so can’t vouch on if the children of today like it). The series was previously made into an HBO childrens show back in the early 2000’s.. but yeah otherwise i agree with most of everyone here that this just doesn’t seem all that appealing but its also a kids movie clearly not made for me, a childless millennial adult.