The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Ryan C]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC2

Early Shows - 13255/29292 176977.57 266 shows +1637

Previews(T-4) - 29957/167481 380614.49 1561 shows +3591

 

We are entering final weekdays and it will accelerate for sure. 

 

@Menor the Destroyer is the one collecting MTC1 data. I  hope he can post it in the morning. I expect it to play even stronger over there. 

 

That said it does NOT have a chance of winning the weekend. Lack of PLF plus this is fan driven and so will be frontloaded after its OD. That said it will still open very well. 

 

So anything between $40M-$50M is what we should expect for this movie heading into the weekend?

[CIDMoosa]

1 hour ago, Ryan C said:

 

So anything between $40M-$50M is what we should expect for this movie heading into the weekend?

If 40-50 is the expected range, wouldn't there be a chance to win the weekend? Assuming that D&W drops 50%+ too the next weekend.

[Ryan C]

It Ends with Us (Early Access Showings)

 

T-4

 

Wednesday: 1,648 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 3:00AM Eastern Time (This is what I do with my life this late) 

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Theaters have been adding extra showtimes after 7:00PM for these EA screenings. That's all you need to know. Unless I'm forgetting, I don't remember this happening with The Fall Guy which didn't have any other EA showtimes after 7:00PM and that movie opened to $27.7M. 

 

Regardless of how frontloaded this movie will be, I'd be stunned if this does less than $40M on its opening weekend. 

[vafrow]

On 8/3/2024 at 7:28 AM, vafrow said:

 

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, T-13, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 105

New Sales since T-20: 43

Growth: 69%

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 7

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 15.0

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 11/1

Early Evening: 70/3

Late Evening: 24/3

 

Tickets by Format:

VIP: 46/4

IMAX: 59/3

 

Comps

2.442x AQP:D1 for $16.6M

2.386x KOTPOTA for $11.9M

3.088x Furiosa for $10.8M

3.281x BB:RoD for $19.3M

 

Average: $15.9M

 

It continues to spit out outlier level numbers. I was able to add Furiosa, which I think should be a good comp. Legacy IP, R rated. But even then, the horror style aspect of Romulus means it's probably better suited for walk ups.

 

This will also get new showtimes on Tuesday night, and being limited to two theatres right now means that there's likely unfulfilled demand for those theatres, so this could jump up quite a bit.

 

Alien Romulus, Thursday Previews, T-11, Western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 113

New Sales since T-13: 8

Growth: 8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4 

Theatres: 2

Showtimes: 7

Radius: 19km

Tickets per Showtime: 16.1

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Tickets per showtime 

Late Afternoon: 11/1

Early Evening: 77/3

Late Evening: 25/3

 

Tickets by Format:

VIP: 52/4

IMAX: 61/3

 

Comps

1.662x AQP:D1 for $11.3M

2.216x KOTPOTA for $11.1M

2.511x Furiosa for $8.8M

3.139x BB:RoD for $18.4M

 

Average: $13.6M

 

It's trended down pretty quickly, bringing the numbers back down to earth. Perhaps speaking to the front loadedness. But also, the added showtimes coming Tuesday night will positively impact it.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 8/2/2024 at 9:53 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-13	Jax	5	38	207	207	6,621	3.13%
		Phx	6	28	189	189	5,645	3.35%
		Ral	8	39	143	143	5,541	2.58%
	Total		19	105	539	539	17,807	3.03%
Borderlands	T-6	Jax	5	30	82	82	4,332	1.89%
		Phx	7	30	66	66	4,755	1.39%
		Ral	8	25	48	48	2,213	2.17%
	Total		20	85	196	196	11,300	1.73%
Cuckoo	T-6	Jax	4	6	13	13	429	3.03%
		Phx	6	12	13	13	1,056	1.23%
		Ral	3	5	15	15	264	5.68%
	Total		13	23	41	41	1,749	2.34%
It Ends With Us	T-6	Jax	5	23	41	301	2,608	11.54%
		Phx	6	34	45	161	4,254	3.78%
		Ral	7	24	47	415	1,842	22.53%
	Total		18	81	133	877	8,704	10.08%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-5	Jax	3	6	49	207	635	32.60%
		Phx	3	3	21	114	306	37.25%
		Ral	3	4	4	134	338	39.64%
	Total		9	13	74	455	1,279	35.57%

 

Was planning on doing a 1 hr update yesterday but ended up working really late and missing it.  Moving on though!

 

It Ends With Us (Total) T-6 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Total) - 4.59x (10.81m)

 - Sound of Freedom (OD) - .848x (4.41m)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - 2.18x (4.02m)

 - Elvis (Total) - 2.915x (8.77m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.02x (5.13m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.336x (7.89m)

 

Borderlands T-6 adjusted comps

 - Uncharted - .369x (1.4m)

 - Free Guy - .966x (2.21m)

 - Fall Guy (Total) - .787x (2.48m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .455x (2.14m)

 - Furiosa - .549x (1.92m)

 

Cuckoo T-6 adjusted comps

 - Men - 1.52x (658k)

 - Candyman - .432x (730k)

 - First Omen - 1.864x (1.13m)

 - Talk to Me - .759x (945k)

 - Abigail - 1.025x (861k)

 - The Strangers - .539x (544k)

 

Alien Romulus T-13 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - .82x (4.96m)

 - Nope - 1.54x (10.09m)

 - Halloween Ends - 2.182x (12.06m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-10	Jax	5	38	48	255	6,621	3.85%
		Phx	6	28	56	245	5,645	4.34%
		Ral	8	39	23	166	5,541	3.00%
	Total		19	105	127	666	17,807	3.74%
Borderlands	T-3	Jax	5	30	20	102	4,332	2.35%
		Phx	7	30	38	104	4,755	2.19%
		Ral	8	25	23	71	2,213	3.21%
	Total		20	85	81	277	11,300	2.45%
Cuckoo	T-3	Jax	4	6	8	21	429	4.90%
		Phx	6	12	18	31	1,056	2.94%
		Ral	3	5	3	18	264	6.82%
	Total		13	23	29	70	1,749	4.00%
It Ends With Us	T-3	Jax	5	23	55	356	2,608	13.65%
		Phx	6	34	143	304	4,254	7.15%
		Ral	7	26	138	553	2,084	26.54%
	Total		18	83	336	1,213	8,946	13.56%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-2	Jax	3	9	169	376	1,155	32.55%
		Phx	3	3	54	168	306	54.90%
		Ral	3	5	84	218	440	49.55%
	Total		9	17	307	762	1,901	40.08%

*All new sales since Friday

 

 

It Ends With Us (EA) T-2 adjusted comps

 - Batman (EA Total) - .384x (1.51m)

 - Top Gun 2 (EA Total) - .451x (2.04m)

 - Twisters (EA) - 1.601x (4.15m)

 - Unsung Hero (EA) - .921x (1.28m)

 - Ungentlemanly (EA) - 2.316x (1.61m)

 - Turtles (EA) - 1.092x (1.91m)

 - Kingdom of Apes (EA) - 2.323x (3.57m)

 

I'm thinking somewhere around 1.75-2m for EA with the lower ATP

 

It Ends With Us (Thu) T-3 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Thu) -2.782x (5.7m)

 - Creed III (Thu) - 2.263x (8.26m)

 - Elvis (Thu) - missed

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 7.352x (6.79m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 2.795x (7.86m)

 

Borderlands T-3 adjusted comps

 - Uncharted - .41x (1.55m)

 - Free Guy - .908x (2.08m)

 - Fall Guy (Total) - .765x (2.41m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .444x (2.09m)

 - Furiosa - missed

 - Dune - .235x (1.24m)

 - Turtles (Total) - .185x (1.1m)

 - Meg 2 - 1.24x (4.21m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.14x (2.37m)

 

Size adjusted average - 2.72m

 

Should be able to reach 2m.  I didn't track Dungeons and Dragons but I think that would be a pretty good comp.  

 

Cuckoo T-3 adjusted comps

 - Men - 1.06x (459k)

 - Candyman - .443x (750k)

 - First Omen - 2.121x (1.29m)

 - Talk to Me - .686x (854k)

 - Abigail - .946x (794k)

 - The Strangers - .574x (578k)

 

Alien Romulus T-10 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - .911x (5.5m)

 - Nope - 1.57x (10.29m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.897x (10.49m)

[Flip]

Beetlejuice allocation is the 3rd biggest I’ve tracked, behind DM4 barely and DP3 by a fair amount. It’s 75% and 50% larger than A Quiet Place: Day One and Twisters respectively

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

- Creed III (Thu) - 2.263x (8.26m)

 - Elvis (Thu) - missed

 - Death on the Nile (Thu) - 7.352x (6.79m)

 - Bullet Train (Thu) - 2.795x (7.86m)

I feel comps should be much higher than they are for these 3 films. EWU sales are lightyear ahead of these 3 nationally.

[Flip]

PLF EA for Beetlejuice on September 4

[jeffthehat]

Indiana

It Ends With Us T-3                                                                                                  

Sales	Seats	Shows
1583	11598	88

TC=26, pulled 12PM EST

Comps

1.13x Ghostbusters FE T-3 = $5.2m

2.10x Furiosa T-3 = $7.4m

5.23x Challengers T-3 = $8.4m

8.33x Bikeriders T-3 = $10.8m

 

Don't have good comps for this, just throwing some up at the wall 

Edited August 5 by jeffthehat

[katnisscinnaplex]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I feel comps should be much higher than they are for these 3 films. EWU sales are lightyear ahead of these 3 nationally.

They are much higher before adjustment.  All three had IMAX though and have been adjusted accordingly

Edited August 5 by katnisscinnaplex

[keysersoze123]

Beetlejuice is having a blockbuster allocation when it comes to intial showtimes. Even higher than what Dune 2 had earlier this year. Of course Deadpool or Inside Out 2 had more. Still color me surprised for sure. I did not see this as having blockbuster potential considering Burton has not had one in eons and his last blockbuster was catalyzed by being the 2nd big release in initial 3D era. 

 

Edit: its also having huge early release with imax/plf release. Most theaters have 2-3 shows. Potential gross should be at Maverick/Batman levels(4m ish).

Edited August 5 by keysersoze123

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice is having a blockbuster allocation when it comes to intial showtimes. Even higher than what Dune 2 had earlier this year. Of course Deadpool or Inside Out 2 had more. Still color me surprised for sure. I did not see this as having blockbuster potential considering Burton has not had one in eons and his last blockbuster was catalyzed by being the 2nd big release in initial 3D era. 

 

Edit: its also having huge early release with imax/plf release. Most theaters have 2-3 shows. Potential gross should be at Maverick/Batman levels(4m ish).

The marketplace is going to be on the quiet side by then (the openers over the two weekends before are looking like nonstarters) so the fight for screen space is already pretty open.

[Flip]

Can’t see Beetlejuice under 8m previews based on how things are going so far

[TalismanRing]

NYC REGAL Local (5pm)

It Ends With Us    74/765  

 

COMPS

 

Barbie: $2.97m
Furiosa: $4.32m

Marvels: $5.28m
Challengers: $5.92m
A Quiet Place 3:  $11.m  
Twisters: $12.77m

 

From very front-loaded preview buying to not front-loaded but even the mid numbers are good.

 

Cuckoo: 18/322
Borderlands    10/771

 

Too early for comps with tickets this low but one of these is doing far better than the other here - though horror in general seems to be over performing here lately.

 

Edited August 5 by TalismanRing

[JonathanMB]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Beetlejuice is having a blockbuster allocation when it comes to intial showtimes. Even higher than what Dune 2 had earlier this year. Of course Deadpool or Inside Out 2 had more. Still color me surprised for sure. I did not see this as having blockbuster potential considering Burton has not had one in eons and his last blockbuster was catalyzed by being the 2nd big release in initial 3D era. 

 

Edit: its also having huge early release with imax/plf release. Most theaters have 2-3 shows. Potential gross should be at Maverick/Batman levels(4m ish).

 

The original Beetlejuice is basically Top Gun for people that make Halloween their entire personality, so I'm not too surprised. It's a classic with a long tail that's had brand extensions (the TV show, the hit Broadway musical) but never a proper follow-up. Plus it has Ortega to jumpstart interest among The Youths. It's always felt like a movie that had top 10 of the year potential if it can muster even half-decent reviews and impress audiences. 

[ThomasNicole]

The current expectation for the Tim Burton-directed sequel, which also features original cast Michael Keaton, Winona Ryder and Catherine O’Hara, is heading toward a $75M-$84M opening according to long-lead tracking.  
 

https://deadline.com/2024/08/jenna-ortega-glen-powell-jj-abrams-1236030566/

[Grand Cine]

16 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The current expectation for the Tim Burton-directed sequel, which also features original cast Michael Keaton, Winona Ryder and Catherine O’Hara, is heading toward a $75M-$84M opening according to long-lead tracking.  
 

https://deadline.com/2024/08/jenna-ortega-glen-powell-jj-abrams-1236030566/

Nice it's almost my expectations for the movie (70-80M OW)

[vafrow]

Checking in from vacay on Beetlejuice. 

 

Biggest thing is so far all locations having Wednesday EA shows. And those are the only ones with any sales so far. Still lots of time on my usual D1 count, but right now, it's in line with Fall Guy and Twisters as two films with similar EA coverage.

 

It's also on sale during a period where people are usually out of town. We'll have a better sense mid week, which is when I'll have time to do a proper track.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Flip said:

Can’t see Beetlejuice under 8m previews based on how things are going so far

I dont know I want to go that far. Whatever I can see, the sales are solid albeit not spectacular. After all its not a huge fanbase driven movie. So I would wait until we see a trend of huge breakout. Maverick couple of years ago looked like a huge breakout on day 1. This is not close but its not a fair comp for sure. 

[TheFlatLannister]

FLORIDA 

BEETLEJUICE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-31 *First few hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
593	2723	124858	2.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-31

(1.713x) of Twisters $13.87M

(0.874x) of Dune 2 $8.13M

 

🚨Breakout alert🚨