Weekend Thread 7/28-7/30 - Barbenheimer Week 2; Barbie 93M/Oppy 46.2M - Haunted Mansion & Talk to Me OW; Mansion 24.2M, Talk 10M

[Mojoguy]

9 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

So again capacity issue in the weekend?. Weekdays for both will be again very interesting. 

 

7 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

I couldn't get seats for both weekends smh. 

Not enough seating should create more demand to see both movies, making both feel more like events. Ingenious. The studios couldn't have come up with better marketing themselves.

[BadAtGender]

11 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Why is Barbieheimer second weekend look more detrimental to holdovers as compared to the OW?

 

And how can Barbie hold better than Oppy over mid-week but still have better Fri bump?

Oppenheimer is skewed towards IMAX and other PLF, which are in much more limited supply therefore there isn’t as much variance 

 

4 hours ago, Day and Date The Best said:

It does not sound ridiculous, stop projecting, because they really did, underperform, Underperform means is below what was expected, Avatar 2 People were expecting 3 billion, even me i think, and with inflation and more PLFs should have easily pass the first Avatar, it did not. doesnt mean bad neccessarily, understand what words mean in context. Remmember there is a more than 10 year difference between Avatar 1 and 2 release.

 

I’d forgotten about all the way out there takes that can happen on this forum 

 

Don’t ever change BOT

[vale9001]

If It's similar to the last week both will lose only 10-15% on sunday. 

[WorkingonaName]

14 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

The solution is to watch Haunted Mansion.

I don't think they even bothered to release it here.   

[TwoMisfits]

5 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Also, Kamala is the best new MCU character since T’Challa, so I don’t even want Marvels to fail or anything. But it’s nearly inevitable barring a mini miracle for it. 

 

But even best characters can be done dirty, and it just takes one movie or show...just ask Nick Fury from Secret Invasion.

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, Jonwo said:

I suspect because the international release is so staggered, it won't do great. In the UK, it's being released on the same day as The Equalizer 3. 

 

I think SoF will go huge in Latin America.  It started strong with Hispanic audiences in the US, and it's just gotten bigger and bigger with them.  

 

So, those release countries should probably carry the international numbers...

[Dragoncaine]

55 minutes ago, across the Jat verse said:

Barbie can be 34.

Still looking like $18m for Oppy? Any chance for a late night bump?

[vale9001]

SOF should be a total non event OS imo. Wouldn't be surprised of like 90% box office domestic, or even more (?).

[hasanahmad]

1 minute ago, vale9001 said:

SOF should be a total non event OS imo. Wouldn't be surprised of like 90% box office domestic, or even more (?).

it will play well in Brazil, Russia, India, Italy and Spain

[LonePirate]

15 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

If It's similar to the last week both will lose only 10-15% on sunday. 

That's a very tall order to pull it off a second time. I'm thinking they will drop around 25% to $26M and $14M. Of course I wouldn't be surprised at all if both grossed closer to $30M and $16M.

[vale9001]

Just now, hasanahmad said:

it will play well in Brazil, Russia, India, Italy and Spain

Italy? Why?. Can see making not even 500k euros total .

[Cheddar Please]

Just now, LonePirate said:

That's a very tall order to pull it off a second time. I'm thinking they will drop around 25% to $26M and $14M. Of course I wouldn't be surprised at all if both grossed closer to $30M and $16M.

But why would that be the case? The fact that it's Saturday increase is abnormally low suggests that capacity limitations are still in effect so if we want to look at precedent, Fri - Sun is a much better metric and in that case anywhere from -5% to +10% is in play

[M37]

20 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

If It's similar to the last week both will lose only 10-15% on sunday. 

I expect -17% Barbie, -20% Oppy 

[Arlborn]

3 minutes ago, hasanahmad said:

it will play well in Brazil, Russia, India, Italy and Spain

Brazilian alt-rights love imitating the American ones, so I can see that happening if what I’ve seen online comes true. 
But with this kind of thing it’s hard to tell, as a lot of online chatter doesn’t translate to reality, so I can easily see a scenario where it does nothing as well, especially if a couple of mega churches over here don’t push it a little.

[upriser7]

8 minutes ago, hasanahmad said:

it will play well in Brazil, Russia, India, Italy and Spain

India ? lol I doubt it even releases in India..even if it does, doubt it would make more than $100K in India. No one cares about these kind of Indie Hollywood movies in India

[LonePirate]

Oppy looks to score the sixth biggest second weekend (wide release) gross for an R-rated film behind the big five: The Passion of the Christ; Deadpool; American Sniper; Joker; and It.

 

Mojo needs to create one of its showdowns tracking the day to day grosses of all six films and maybe Deadpool II as well. Oppy still has a ways to go before it catches those films; but it will gain ground on all of them during the upcoming weekdays. The film will pass $200M sometime next week and $300M looks fairly solid; however I'm not yet sold on the $329M needed to pass It for fifth place on the all time list. Oppy will need to gross north of $30M next weekend to have a chance so we'll see.

Edited July 30, 2023 by LonePirate

[The GOAT]

1 hour ago, WorkingonaName said:

I couldn't get seats for both weekends smh. 

Just order some a few weeks beforehand. 

[lilmac]

Is Barbie this year's TGM?

[lilmac]

4 hours ago, hasanahmad said:

The problem with Disney box office performances is entirely contextual . Disney movies recently especially have been produced with over ballooned budgets which means they will lose money unless it makes avatar level money . Hell their most recent Marvel tv show was produced for 250 million $ . 
 

disney needs to refocus on experiences more than nostalgia. Quality over quips. Efficiency over throwing money. And Kathleen kennedys time is up so is Kevin Feige 

 

Kathleen Kennedy incompetence wss hidden by lightning in a bottle movies sequences which have vanished and Feige has shown he doesn’t know what to do when movies don’t do well . Still waiting for a comeback success since final avengers. It’s been over 5 years and almost 2 phases and 2 of your best stars are gone and no one with charisma to replace them . His success was also due to the stars not his own 

 

Disney did just have a top 5 WW film of all time, just 8 months ago (Avatar 2). You could say that was more Fox/James Cameron but the revenues did go into the Disney bank account. But I get what you're saying and largely agree.

[kayumanggi]

5 hours ago, Arlborn said:

Barbie is doing insanely well OS, crazy breakout. It just took everyone by storm over here! I hadn’t heard anyone even talking about it at all a couple of weeks back and then all of sudden a week or so before it came out everyone started talking about it, even my mother-in-law who I think has never actually gone to the movie theater in her life. It’s actually what made me come back to this forum.

 

How much do we think it’s ending up with OS?

 

Maybe at least 650M?