FNAF Weekend Thread (10/27-10/29) | $80m Opening Weekend | Blumhouse's Biggest Opener Ever | $14.7m The Eras Tour | $9.3m KOTFM

[Zakiyyah6]

Killers of the Flower Moon was never going to have a 50M budget. The absolutely base case budget scenario without COVID restrictions is 150M. And that is still too much to profit. People can get angry at studios all they want but no smart studio would greenlight a 3.5 hour grim crime drama about how the white man fucked over indigenous Americans for 150M when the very best case scenario for its box office was probably 250M. If Scorsese wants to make 3-4 hour anti crowdpleasers for ungodly amounts of money then thank goodness for streamers like Apple and Netflix I guess. 

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Yeah, as much as the movie's probably garbage (it won't be out until this coming Friday here), it will almost certainly be the last truly successful movie of the year, and the benefit exhibition will see from that should not be discounted. I actually hope it has staying power so the blow from the impending bad holiday slate will be softened.

The rest of the year is not looking great but there are a few potential breakouts like Wonka and Wish. Also Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes is supposed to be good even if it performs well below the orginal movies still could do decently. 

[titanic2187]

4 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Budget should have been $50M instead of $200M. It’s doable. This movie did have COVID problems, though I doubt they can blame COVID for adding $150M to the budget. 

If a movie of just sitting in office building like AIR can cost some 80m-90m to make, there shouldn't be too much doubt that KOTFM with far bigger production set, crew, and runtime would not cost 200m+. It is just the way Hollywood spent their money. Very often I don't understand why are things so expensive in Hollywood studio.

Not just drama, even top-tier action-flicks nowadays don't appear to justify their price tag. Antman 3 and thor 4 costs 200m+++ for plastic-looking VFX and Zoom background?  

[Liiviig 1998]

2023 is just one Weird hell of a year. Yeah in box office is up from last year,we have had some surprises but yeah we have had some like some major high string flops . Not great year for high profile franchises. Positive side to all this. Audiences are not as forgiving to schlock or lazy content as they were pre covid. 

 

As for the rest of the year . I'm not as doom and gloom . Outside of the marvels expect the rest to be decent enough. Aquaman will be a  600m+ grosser.  Wonka is my wildcard.

 

Marvels 130m

Ballad.    155m

Wish.       200m+

Aquaman 225m

Wonka      200-300M+

[Eric Prime]

10 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Shocked you don't think Wonka can't be the breakout.

I knew somebody would bring this up lol

 

The second trailer for Wonka was honestly a total whiff in quality. Which says a lot coming from me. It’s also a movie that needs the cast promoting it. You need Hugh Grant on Stephen Colbert, you need Timothee on Hot Ones, you need the cast on the Buzzfeed YouTube channel and doing WIRED’s Google Search videos. And while the SAG strikes are apparently progressing well, it could fall apart just like that. The only thing they could really do apart from cast promos is try to hype up the music and see if one of the songs stick, like Wish is doing quite well with right now, but they’re weirdly being coy and haven’t given us any of the songs, which is odd to me.

 

There's also the hurdle of being a musical. Musicals that aren’t Disney animations/Disney remakes have a pretty hard ceiling. I think Grease is still the biggest domestically of that group at around 180M, even after all these years. I love musicals, but I think there's sadly going to be a ceiling and limit in their appeal unless you're a Disney cartoon or based on a Disney cartoon.

[SpiderByte]

I don't think the strike will still be an issue by the time they begin to promote this so they absolutely should have no problem relying on cast promo

[Maggie]

Wonka has a quality team behind it. I could see it doing around 120...150M

[YM!]

Wish and Wonka seem like the best breakout choices. The latter has good awareness and trailer views as well as a wide open slate for Christmas though a press tour would skyrocket it, and the former turned it around with an 11th hour marketing campaign promoting the music - all it needs is good reviews and good audience reception, which if it doesn't isn't anyone's fault but the movie. Both if they get good reception, should be within 200m domestic, the latter maybe moreso 350m.

 

Also think Migration, Aquaman and Songbirds can breakout as the former has Illumination which has usurped Disney as family film powerhouse, the middle is the first dude skewing in months and if it's decent can drum up decent business and the latter if as good as test screenings are saying, with The Marvels looking to die a last minute press tour could get it to 60m or even 70m OW. I thought Trolls had the juice at one point but it's not seeming to catch on as much as I thought.

Edited October 30, 2023 by YM!

[Jonwo]

19 minutes ago, YM! said:

Wish and Wonka seem like the best breakout choices. The latter has good awareness and trailer views as well as a wide open slate for Christmas though a press tour would skyrocket it, and the former turned it around with an 11th hour marketing campaign promoting the music - all it needs is good reviews and good audience reception, which if it doesn't isn't anyone's fault but the movie. Both if they get good reception, should be within 200m domestic, the latter maybe moreso 350m.

 

Also think Migration, Aquaman and Songbirds can breakout as the former has Illumination which has usurped Disney as family film powerhouse, the middle is the first dude skewing in months and if it's decent can drum up decent business and the latter if as good as test screenings are saying, with The Marvels looking to die a last minute press tour could get it to 60m or even 70m OW. I thought Trolls had the juice at one point but it's not seeming to catch on as much as I thought.

Migration won't do badly but I don't think it's going to be another SLOP or even Sing. 

 

I do find it funny that people are so down on Disney even though Wish looks like a hit. 

[filmlover]

Migration should move to next year if it still can, Universal's 2024 is going to need all the help it can get with so many of their currently scheduled movies caught up in the strike.

 

Personally I get the feeling we're gonna see a bunch of decent performers and a few underperformers but no breakouts this holiday season.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Migration should move to next year if it still can, Universal's 2024 is going to need all the help it can get with so many of their currently scheduled movies caught up in the strike.

 

Personally I get the feeling we're gonna see a bunch of decent performers and a few underperformers but no breakouts this holiday season.

I suspect it's probably a bit too late to move Migration although it's not being released in many markets until February so there's a chance it could move.

[filmlover]

Just now, Jonwo said:

I suspect it's probably a bit too late to move Migration although it's not being released in many markets until February so there's a chance it could move.

With Elio gone and Kung Fu Panda 4 also likely on the move (no marketing less than 5 months away), they would be wise to go to Q1, which is emptying out fast. The next family film otherwise isn't until summer.

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Migration should move to next year if it still can, Universal's 2024 is going to need all the help it can get with so many of their currently scheduled movies caught up in the strike.

 

Personally I get the feeling we're gonna see a bunch of decent performers and a few underperformers but no breakouts this holiday season.

Tbh I don't get why Universal didn't see the writing on the wall and just move Trolls to Christmas and Migration to March, as I doubt KFP4/DM4 will make their current dates but are still wanted for spots.

 

20 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Migration won't do badly but I don't think it's going to be another SLOP or even Sing. 

 

I do find it funny that people are so down on Disney even though Wish looks like a hit. 

I'll give Asaz this. I don't think he knows how to market anything that's not a guaranteed sell, but doing the songs early, and finally doing early screenings help this a ton. Feel confident in a range of 50-80m five day/150-250m total domestically. All that happens that determines a hit now is quality. Still won't count Migration out, the trailers do well and I'm confident Comcast will do it's all-out marketing next month. If it weren't for Wonka, I think it could easily be another Sing.

 

Honestly if this does at least Elemental numbers, think both arms will be back in action especially with an IO2/Zoo2 next year. Their animation side needs the least fixing because the problem was a combination of Iger and Chapek’s Plus greed, not so much the films.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, YM! said:

Tbh I don't get why Universal didn't see the writing on the wall and just move Trolls to Christmas and Migration to March, as I doubt KFP4/DM4 will make their current dates but are still wanted for spots.

They probably want Trolls on Peacock by Christmas given that the previous movie ended up a glorified DTV release (and was a PVOD blockbuster with a theatrical box office total of $0).

[PlatnumRoyce]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

They probably want Trolls on Peacock by Christmas given that the previous movie ended up a glorified DTV release (and was a PVOD blockbuster with a theatrical box office total of $0).

Quote

[Deadline article on trolls PVOD - Trolls World benefited largely from a theatrical-P&A sized release across NBCUni’s vertically integrated Symphony program. Some close to Trolls World Tour say that the P&A for the feature was $30M, but rival distributors highly disagree given the fact that Uni kept the film in place on the calendar, and thus carried close to the full freight spend of a global theatrical release (which is closer to $80M-$100M worldwide).

 

2020/early 2021 was a weird place because DTV meant still giving film massive marketing pushes which sort of ruins comps. As a DTV comp, Red Notice spent $3.3M on tv spots.

[Bob Train]

29 minutes ago, filmlover said:

They probably want Trolls on Peacock by Christmas given that the previous movie ended up a glorified DTV release (and was a PVOD blockbuster with a theatrical box office total of $0).

What? Why would they rush Trolls to Peacock after 30 or so days when it took even Ruby GIllman 112 days until it got on Peacock. Theatrical windows are much longer than in 2021.

[YM!]

Just now, Bob Train said:

What? Why would they rush Trolls to Peacock after 30 or so days when it took even Ruby GIllman 112 days until it got on Peacock. Theatrical windows are much longer than in 2021.

Yeah, Universal has far more care for windows than say Disney. You won't see Trolls on Peacock until March.

[tdangie]

Not a shock here, but Universal/Blumhouse’s Five Nights at Freddy’s is coming in at $80M over 3-days after a $16M Sunday that was -34% from Saturday’s $24.2M. The fans of this movie were always dead set on seeing it in a cinema, which made it an experiment for Uni by going day-and-date on Peacock so that they could spike paid subs beyond 28M. While the Emma Tammi directed movie is destined to be No. 1 again during the first weekend of November sans Dune: Part Two, all eyes on how much it drops. Many observed that Taylor Swift: Eras Tour was frontloaded, and she posted a -65% decline in weekend 2. That’s about what we’ll see here. At $80M, it’s still the fifth best opening of October behind Joker ($96.2M), Taylor Swift: Eras Tour ($92.8M), Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($90M) and Venom ($80.2M).

https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-five-nights-at-freddys-1235584788/ 
Updated numbers just dropped!

[Borobudur]

It is good to see FNAF come above estimate but Universal's initial Sunday estimate was a bit too harsh to begin with. 

[TwoMisfits]

Props to Shawn for a really on point pinpoint forecast for FNAF for the week - gotta admit when you are closer...and you were:)...