Weekend Thread (11/17-19) | Early Deadline #s - Songbirds 5.75-6M Previews, Trolls 2M

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

I'm guessing 210-220M WW finish. It has about 25M domestic left based on Eternals from the same time on and maybe 40M OS.

 

o/u quantumania dom 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

And according to Fandango, Saltburn is playing at 3 theaters in New York, 1 in Austin, and "3" AMCs in the LA area: The Grove, Century City, and "Burbank" (the Burbank 16 and the Burbank Town Center 6). So actually 8 different locations but the per theater average for 7. I wonder if all the AMCs in Burbank count as one theater for wide releases, too.

 

Jacob Elordi, indie box office king? I wasn't impressed with Priscilla (saw the 1980s miniseries adaptation of the memoir on YouTube, it's the same story but lets her have a personality, plus it has Elvis music) but I liked his performance.

 

 

19 minutes ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

Was the Fantastic Beasts book a hit? 

The Fantastic Beasts book was like an bonus thing JKR released between Harry Potter books, a mini guide of wizarding creatures that came complete with student doodles on the side. Another one was called Quidditch Through the Ages. Neither was really a narrative novel; the movie had to invent a story. Newt Scamander existed as a character in the universe technically but not as someone fans would have been attached to.

Edited November 19, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[Johnny Tran]

26 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

The fact that BVS is not even in the top 10 biggest second weekend drops for comic book movies anymore 😭

 

 Those threads went on and on for months and months at a time and in the end,  it's a movie that isn't in the top 10 of worst second weekend drops and it made $875M worldwide.  

 

Some of these movies coming out would KILL for those numbers..... 

[John Marston]

 

[Veclozy]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

 Those threads went on and on for months and months at a time and in the end,  it's a movie that isn't in the top 10 of worst second weekend drops and it made $875M worldwide.  

 

Some of these movies coming out would KILL for those numbers..... 

That movie still killed an entire cinematic universe, there's been more DCEU flops than hits since BvS

[Issac Newton]

Thanksgiving

 

$10.2M DOM / $2.4M OS / $12.6M Total

 

Budget 15M // 11 OS Markets

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

9 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

 Those threads went on and on for months and months at a time and in the end,  it's a movie that isn't in the top 10 of worst second weekend drops and it made $875M worldwide.  

 

Some of these movies coming out would KILL for those numbers..... 

BvS was supposed to end all movies though, some of these other bombs didn’t have nearly the same expectations.

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

10 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

The Fantastic Beasts book was like an bonus thing JKR released between Harry Potter books, a mini guide of wizarding creatures that came complete with student doodles on the side. Another one was called Quidditch Through the Ages. Neither was really a narrative novel; the movie had to invent a story. Newt Scamander existed as a character in the universe technically but not as someone fans would have been attached to.

I think regardless, people see FB and BOS&S as add ons for the hardcore fans, not proper entries. The success or lack thereof doesn’t really speak to THG and HP franchises overall. 

[Cmasterclay]

Looking at last couple years of data post COVID, even the big bombs get real holiday legs if released around Christmas, but there seems to be no holiday season legs for anything released near Thanksgiving at all. So don't expect THG or Trolls to necessarily hit 100, or Napoleon/Holdovers to hit totals that would seem to make sense for leggy "adult" films. Good news for Iron Claw/Good Things mini breakouts I'm predicting, at least!

[Hatebox]

Impressive for saltburn. Weirdly I’ve no desire to see it even though I want movies like this to do well. Just don’t have the appetite for a class satire I guess. 

[Halberstram]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

“History is not just study of the past, but also the predictor of the present” 

Quintessential Holiday movie that for some reason reminded of the coveted Dead Poet. I recommend everyone check it out as it could be that film you come back to every Christmas season. 

[ThomasNicole]

This year has been solid for smaller movies, i’m very happy with it honestly.

 

Asteroid City and Priscilla are nearly locked for +25M. 

 

Suzume did +10M and i have a strong feeling the new Miyazaki can pull 30M. 
 

Past Lives, Bottoms and Holdovers will all have 10-15M. 
 

Saltburn seems like a breakout, can try 20-25M. I feel Poor Things with it’s lavish steampunk visuals and strong Oscar buzz can also try 20-30M, even more if it ended with +10 nominations like it’s being predicted. 
 

Zone Of Interest, American Fiction and The Iron Claw all have strong buzz with cinephiles and all should ended up with 10-15M. 
 

Then we have the biggest ones: Air, Killers of the Flower Moon an Napoleon will all ended up with 50-70M. And based on it’s solid presales and Christmas date, Color Purple can be a 70-100M grosser. 
 

Some can argue none of this is really a hit. But just look at the data, pretty much all the smaller awards titles in the past years was a complete disaster, with very few reaching 10M. 
 

This year it seems like we’ll see some with 20-30M, and 12-15 titles surpassing 10M. If we’re being purely logical, it’s not particularly good. But it’s a major improvement and a sign of hope for future years. 
 

Oppenheimer is not a small movie, but being a billion grosser being what it is (it will happen when they inevitably re-released it globally for Oscar) will be the cherry on top.

[Arlborn]

This new reality of bad BO numbers can make this forum quite a depressing reading at times, at least when compared to pre-COVID

[Zakiyyah6]

Massive copium from MCU fans on Twitter. 

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This year has been solid for smaller movies, i’m very happy with it honestly.

 

Asteroid City and Priscilla are nearly locked for +25M. 

 

Suzume did +10M and i have a strong feeling the new Miyazaki can pull 30M. 
 

Past Lives, Bottoms and Holdovers will all have 10-15M. 
 

Saltburn seems like a breakout, can try 20-25M. I feel Poor Things with it’s lavish steampunk visuals and strong Oscar buzz can also try 20-30M, even more if it ended with +10 nominations like it’s being predicted. 
 

Zone Of Interest, American Fiction and The Iron Claw all have strong buzz with cinephiles and all should ended up with 10-15M. 
 

Then we have the biggest ones: Air, Killers of the Flower Moon an Napoleon will all ended up with 50-70M. And based on it’s solid presales and Christmas date, Color Purple can be a 70-100M grosser. 
 

Some can argue none of this is really a hit. But just look at the data, pretty much all the smaller awards titles in the past years was a complete disaster, with very few reaching 10M. 
 

This year it seems like we’ll see some with 20-30M, and 12-15 titles surpassing 10M. If we’re being purely logical, it’s not particularly good. But it’s a major improvement and a sign of hope for future years. 
 

Oppenheimer is not a small movie, but being a billion grosser being what it is (it will happen when they inevitably re-released it globally for Oscar) will be the cherry on top.

Stop being positive you don't belong here!

[Johnny Tran]

45 minutes ago, Veclozy said:

That movie still killed an entire cinematic universe, there's been more DCEU flops than hits since BvS

 

It was more so the studio that killed any chance of a connective universe working.  Instead of doing a complete 180 with Josstice League,  they could have made some more minor changes and in my view would have did way more than the $600M that did.. 

 

Even so, Wonder Woman, Suicide Squad and Aquaman were huge hits.  

[emoviefan]

Just now, Arlborn said:

This new reality of bad BO numbers can make this forum quite a depressing reading at times, at least when compared to pre-COVID

This. I keep telling myself to stop doomscrolling this place. It's not good for mental health.

[Zakiyyah6]

Just now, Arlborn said:

This new reality of bad BO numbers can make this forum quite a depressing reading at times, at least when compared to pre-COVID

Eh, people were too doomer on here even before COVID. Everything that didn't make a billion dollars was seen as a massive flop. Now that the numbers are actually bad, of course the doomerism is going to get far worse. That's why I'll be mostly staying away from the weekend threads.

[KeepItU25071906]

1 hour ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

Was the Fantastic Beasts book a hit? 

Fantastic Beasts book doesn't exist in reality

[Cmasterclay]

4 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Stop being positive you don't belong here!

I literally said all this. Now go back and look at the results in the 50-100 range ten years ago! Biggg difference.