MLK Weekend Thread | 3-Day/4-Day Estimates: Mean Girls 28/32, Beekeeper 16.8/19.2, Wonka 8.4/10.9, Migration 6.2/8.3, Anyone 6.9/8.2

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[abracadabra1998]

Wonka went up a tad, Aquaman went down a tad, ABY right on the money

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Kon]

 

 

The Color Purple was a little less than predictions.

[Kon]

 

[fastlane]

 

[Borobudur]

Boy and the Heron passed the Creator and Haunting in Venice is definitely a story of the year that box office observer would never forget.  I think Heron can try 45m finish. The WOM in the West is far better than in the East. The movie itself is magical, I've almost never seen a movie managed to pull this trick. You know what happened, but never sure why or how it happened. Miyazaki basically give a gold class lesson to all filmmakers about how to make a dream-like movie.   

[Kon]

12 minutes ago, fastlane said:

 

 

That was 400k higher than predictions. I feel this film may have good legs despite divisive reception.

[Eric Prime]

Today's the last day to submit your list for the Disney 100 countdown. All you need is a minimum of 10, and you'll be set to be part of a once in a lifetime countdown.

 

 

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, Kon said:

 

That was 400k higher than predictions. I feel this film may have good legs despite divisive reception.

 

Yeah, its run so far doesn't reflect B score, 66% verified audience (5.8 all audience), 6.1 metacritic audience and 6.4 IMDB. So it seems that it's playing with crowd that doesn't care to rate it online.

Edited January 16 by Valonqar

[abracadabra1998]

17 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Yeah, its run so far doesn't reflect B score, 66% verified audience (5.8 all audience), 6.1 metacritic audience and 6.4 IMDB. So it seems that it's playing with crowd that doesn't care to rate it online.

 

If a movie catches fire on Tiktok these days, WOM often isn't as important as "I have to watch it because it's hot on TikTok". It's the easiest way to catch onto the zeitgeist

[Valonqar]

15 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

If a movie catches fire on Tiktok these days, WOM often isn't as important as "I have to watch it because it's hot on TikTok". It's the easiest way to catch onto the zeitgeist

 

Exactly. My point was that old metrics don't work for movies whose audience isn't on those old ratings systems (RT, IMDB, CS). That's why BOSAS legs didn't suffer from B+ CS while the same rating spells a disaster for lets say Marvel movies.

Edited January 16 by Valonqar

[ChipDerby]

CinemaScore is not a legitimate rating system. It never was and never has been.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 hours ago, Kon said:

 

 

The Color Purple was a little less than predictions.

A movie like this not even reaching half a million on Marting Luther King's birthday is just depressing. I just feel bad for everyone involved especially after hearing about all the production issues.

[dallas]

53 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

CinemaScore is not a legitimate rating system. It never was and never has been.

Then why do people care about it so much?

[MovieMan89]

4 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

1.8m to go, let’s do this! 
 

Still putting that dark horse BP nom into the universe, and if that happened gkids would be insane to not go for major re-expansion. 

[cannastop]

13 minutes ago, dallas said:

Then why do people care about it so much?

because the A+ means something

[MovieMan89]

12 hours ago, Tower said:

I know what I care about isn't what studios do, but I'm not the studio and nobody else here is either. And studios might not care about comparing films but they do care about how much a film makes beyond categorizing it as flop or not flop. 200M and 400M is not the same to the studio even if both are below the break even number.

 

Sequels are made by predicting what the film will make, which is only partly based on the previous films performance. And legs are part of what you can use to predict the sequels. The mechanic didn't make 2x its budget, making it a flop based on the thinking on this forum, but got a sequel anyway.

 

And on the other end there are films that made their break even but the bad legs caused by being received poorly make them long term failures for the studio. BVS and Quantumania did fine in pure box office analysis, but studios should not be pleased because they clearly harmed the sequels.

 

Even if you care about the financial health of the studio, I don't think the break even point is even the most important anyway. The goal of the studio isn't to break even, it's to make a profit. Merely hitting the exact break even point on every film would still be bad.

I still don’t think many execs look at it from the way we do as box office fanatics. If they did, we wouldn’t get a lot of these movies  that were painfully obvious to all of us were in a perfect place to fail. We look at legs and WOM and overall trajectories far more in depth than they seem to based on a lot of the greenlighting and budget choices that are made. 
 

And yes, of course the “breakeven point” is not what they actually care about. They care about making a profit, period the end. The breakeven point is just the logical mark for us to talk about a movie not being seen as a failure. Not that we’re saying it’s now a success.
 

We also know enough about how this stuff works as box office fanatics that we’re able to guesstimate something like the breakeven point, because the studios give us actual reported budgets to work with for movies. So why wouldn’t we guesstimate? But obviously we don’t know for certain without true insider knowledge, I thought that just went without saying to anyone box office savvy enough to frequent this forum. 

[Valonqar]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

because the A+ means something

 

It doesn't if a movie attracts only 1 demo and no one else. If it plays across demos, sure. But if the demo is quickly exhaused with no one else to carry on than it doesn't mean much. Context is everything.

[MightyDargon]

37 minutes ago, dallas said:

Then why do people care about it so much?

They're ignorant. Considering Joker only got a B+ on the thing I wish it would go back to the old days when only industry peepul cared.