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Grand Cine

MLK Weekend Thread | 3-Day/4-Day Estimates: Mean Girls 28/32, Beekeeper 16.8/19.2, Wonka 8.4/10.9, Migration 6.2/8.3, Anyone 6.9/8.2

By Grand Cine, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by CJohn,

I understand the haters want to hate, but with a 205M budget and a 430-450M WW total Aquaman will eventually break even with ancilliary revenue. It was a massive dump job and clearly they were expecting far worse. It is the final movie in an abandoned franchise that nobody cares about. Honestly I think WB will see this one as a small win. Obviously that when it was greenlighted nobody expected such weak numbers but things changed a lot. This movie didn't even have a premiere event. It speaks mou

Hint hint hint re: Aquaman 2

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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Seems solid for both openers. It really depends on how much comes from EA in each case. 30M+ for Mean Girls on the 3 days would be really nice but likely not happening anymore.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

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One thing we never discuss about the $5 Atom deals...it's not always about how much it helps the movie with the deal, but also how much it hurts the movies without it, when GA feels okay about a lot of options and HAS a lot of options...4 19 years olds who can spend $5 each or $20 each just to hang out has an effect...and once they've gone, they may be good for movies for a few weeks...

 

Like last March - Creed 3 and John Wick 4 had the Atom deals - D&D, Shazam 2, Scream VI did not.  A lot of options in that month, and 2 did more than the rest...maybe it was all quality and fanbase, but maybe it wasn't quite just that...

 

Again, this usually matters the most for male 13-45 drawing movies...so it hopefully won't effect Mean Girls too much b/c that is NOT their lane...but still...

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JonathanMB Indie Sensation

JonathanMB

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32 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

could hold well against Mean Girls this weekend?

 

Looks like it'll have one of the (maybe even the) lowest day-to-day drop of everything despite Mean Girls previews being direct competition. Seems promising for the weekend.

 

Pretty nasty weather out here in the Chicagoland area, hope that plus the frigid weather doesn't hurt overall grosses too much. 

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

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OT: But since it's an "elements-affecting" weekend, I finally watched Elemental this week to continue my viewing to see if I can find 25 movies to make a 2023 list.  Sigh.  It wasn't bad - in fact, it may have been the best Disney movie I watched last year (okay, no, GOTG 3 was probably better), but it was mediocre.  I was bored through segments of it, I didn't buy the "love" relationship, I hated the canal problem and its continual "solutions", and I didn't like the voice acting of either lead.  That said, I REALLY liked the dad/daughter and dad/granddad parts, and almost wish they'd have skipped all the water/fire love stuff to just keep the movie there...

 

I'd give it a B-...and it's not good enough for the list...

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Borobudur Box Office Gold

Borobudur

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15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

OT: But since it's an "elements-affecting" weekend, I finally watched Elemental this week to continue my viewing to see if I can find 25 movies to make a 2023 list.  Sigh.  It wasn't bad - in fact, it may have been the best Disney movie I watched last year (okay, no, GOTG 3 was probably better), but it was mediocre.  I was bored through segments of it, I didn't buy the "love" relationship, I hated the canal problem and its continual "solutions", and I didn't like the voice acting of either lead.  That said, I REALLY liked the dad/daughter and dad/granddad parts, and almost wish they'd have skipped all the water/fire love stuff to just keep the movie there...

 

I'd give it a B-...and it's not good enough for the list...

But is the love story that give the movie legs....

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titanic2187 Summer Tentpole

titanic2187

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39 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

 

Looks like it'll have one of the (maybe even the) lowest day-to-day drop of everything despite Mean Girls previews being direct competition. Seems promising for the weekend.

 

Pretty nasty weather out here in the Chicagoland area, hope that plus the frigid weather doesn't hurt overall grosses too much. 

 

Iron Claw is holding up as good as ABY this week, managed to keep mid-week decrease at sub-50%. I guess Allen White underwear campaign helps. 

 

 

 

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

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"FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Paramount’s redux of Mean Girls is eyeing $12.3M today, including previews, for what will be a 3-day of $29M and 4-day of $33M at 3,791 theaters.

Amazon MGM’s The Beekeeper possibly has a shot at $20M over 4-days after a $7M Friday, and 3-day of $17M at 3,303 sites."

 

https://deadline.com/2024/01/box-office-mean-girls-mlk-2024-1235726596/

 

Deadline Friday update...

 

Holdovers...

 

"The fifth weekend of Wonka is looking at a fifth Friday between $1.8M-$2M, which will get it to between $8M-$9M over 3 days and $10M-$12M over four at 3,346 theaters.

Sony’s Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell romcom sleeper, Anyone But You is seeing a fourth Friday of $2.1M, estimated 3-day of $7.7M, -21% and 4-day of $9.5M at 2,935 locations.

Fifth goes to the fourth weekend of Illumination/Universal’s Migration with a Friday of $1M at 3,214 theaters for a 3 day of $4.7M, 4-day of $6.3M and running cume by end of MLK day of $85.8M.

Legendary/Tri-Star’s The Book of Clarence is crashing with a Friday of $1M, 3-day of $2.4M, 4-day of $3M."

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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4 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

OT: But since it's an "elements-affecting" weekend, I finally watched Elemental this week to continue my viewing to see if I can find 25 movies to make a 2023 list.  Sigh.  It wasn't bad - in fact, it may have been the best Disney movie I watched last year (okay, no, GOTG 3 was probably better), but it was mediocre.  I was bored through segments of it, I didn't buy the "love" relationship, I hated the canal problem and its continual "solutions", and I didn't like the voice acting of either lead.  That said, I REALLY liked the dad/daughter and dad/granddad parts, and almost wish they'd have skipped all the water/fire love stuff to just keep the movie there...

 

I'd give it a B-...and it's not good enough for the list...

I agree that it’s just too generic on the whole. The animation is absolutely stunning (I wish I had seen it in the theater for that alone) and the characters are likable. Those two things save it, but otherwise I expect a whole lot more from Pixar. It’s at the top of their “lesser” tier stuff, but way off from all the top tier stuff that built the brand. 

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Grand Cine Indie Sensation

Grand Cine

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4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

"FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Paramount’s redux of Mean Girls is eyeing $12.3M today, including previews, for what will be a 3-day of $29M and 4-day of $33M at 3,791 theaters.

Amazon MGM’s The Beekeeper possibly has a shot at $20M over 4-days after a $7M Friday, and 3-day of $17M at 3,303 sites."

 

https://deadline.com/2024/01/box-office-mean-girls-mlk-2024-1235726596/

 

Deadline Friday update...

 

Holdovers...

 

"The fifth weekend of Wonka is looking at a fifth Friday between $1.8M-$2M, which will get it to between $8M-$9M over 3 days and $10M-$12M over four at 3,346 theaters.

Sony’s Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell romcom sleeper, Anyone But You is seeing a fourth Friday of $2.1M, estimated 3-day of $7.7M, -21% and 4-day of $9.5M at 2,935 locations.

Fifth goes to the fourth weekend of Illumination/Universal’s Migration with a Friday of $1M at 3,214 theaters for a 3 day of $4.7M, 4-day of $6.3M and running cume by end of MLK day of $85.8M.

Legendary/Tri-Star’s The Book of Clarence is crashing with a Friday of $1M, 3-day of $2.4M, 4-day of $3M."

 

Wonka : between 36-43% Drop

ABY  : -21% ( very good even with Mean Girls)

Migration : -53% ( very bad 😬) , the 100M Mark will not passed ?

 

Sounds very bad for Aquaman because of not be reported .

 

Correct for Mean Girls , numbers expected but very good for The Beekeeper if the numbers are good , way better than expected and way better than Plane last year (10,2M 3 Days)

 

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

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5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

lol damn Migration is collapsing hard if those numbers stick. 100 is in jeopardy

 

Looks like mid -high 90s.   This the same pattern as Ferdinand which dropped -54% over MLK w/e without dropping any theaters

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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100M is dead for Migration if those numbers come true. Absolutely atrocious. It faces no competition.

 

Wonka and the 200M isn't looking great either.

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

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3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Looks like mid -high 90s.   This the same pattern as Ferdinand which dropped -54% over MLK w/e without dropping any theaters

Ferdinand faced Paddington tho. Migration faces nothing.

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JonathanMB Indie Sensation

JonathanMB

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Beekeeper's RT verified audience score starts at 92% (100+ ratings) and Mean Girls starts at 77% (also 100+ ratings). Looks like the not-a-musical advertising is backfiring on Mean Girls more than it did Wonka.

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