MLK Weekend Thread | 3-Day/4-Day Estimates: Mean Girls 28/32, Beekeeper 16.8/19.2, Wonka 8.4/10.9, Migration 6.2/8.3, Anyone 6.9/8.2

[JimmyB]

Another boring weekend. Anyone But You run has been fun and TCP collapsing was interesting and I think my comp that it was playing to a limited audience like a Medea movie was correct.  Wonka is having a fairly typical holiday run nothing special. Migration is pretty much following Trolls 3 run.  Aquaman got to 100m domestic I guess is a win nowadays.  Hopefully, Dune 2 can add some spice to the box office.

[Valonqar]

Poor Things is gonna make over TCP this weekend. 

[Grand Cine]

7 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

Beekeeper's RT verified audience score starts at 92% (100+ ratings) and Mean Girls starts at 77% (also 100+ ratings). Looks like the not-a-musical advertising is backfiring on Mean Girls more than it did Wonka.

Ouch a B cinemascore for Mean Girls incoming? , Very good for Beekeepers , maybe a A- for me , if it's the case , it's better than Plane which have a X 3,1 multiplier from OW

[Krissykins]

Poor Things is awesome. Hope it keeps rolling. Looks like an easy #1 here on opening Friday. 

[filmlover]

Mean Girls was originally going to be released straight to Paramount+ so an opening in the same vein as the '04 movie seems respectable. Beekeeper also looking at a better than expected launch. Unsurprisingly horrible for Book of Clarence given the lack of marketing plus being a tough sell to begin with.

[KP1025]

27 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Looks like mid -high 90s.   This the same pattern as Ferdinand which dropped -54% over MLK w/e without dropping any theaters

 

Ferdinand actually lost 1,000 theaters that weekend and faced competition from Paddington 2 (which only had an $11 million OW but still siphoned some families away). Migration lost 500 theaters this weekend and doesn't have direct competition, so this hold seems more disappointing in comparison. 

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

Ferdinand actually lost 1,000 theaters that weekend and faced competition from Paddington 2 (which only had an $11 million OW but still siphoned some families away). Migration lost 500 theaters this weekend and doesn't have direct competition, so this hold seems more disappointing in comparison. 

 

Ah.  BOM had it losing 1k but The Numbers has it incorrectly flat.  Glad I used Numbers for my Derby.

[Speedorito]

35 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

Beekeeper's RT verified audience score starts at 92% (100+ ratings) and Mean Girls starts at 77% (also 100+ ratings). Looks like the not-a-musical advertising is backfiring on Mean Girls more than it did Wonka.

I wonder if if it’s because people actually like Wonka and don’t like Mean Girls, or if it’s because the original Mean Girls wasn’t a musical.

Edited January 13 by Speedorito
Accidentally pressed enter

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Very funny that the Jason Statham movie about the “mythology of beekeeping” is gonna be the most acclaimed movie of the weekend.

Edited January 13 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer

[Dreadnought]

26 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Mean Girls was originally going to be released straight to Paramount+ so an opening in the same vein as the '04 movie seems respectable. Beekeeper also looking at a better than expected launch. Unsurprisingly horrible for Book of Clarence given the lack of marketing plus being a tough sell to begin with.

 

I'm about as far from the target audience for BoC as possible and I've seen plenty of advertising both on TV and YouTube.

[PrinceRico]

17 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

I wonder if if it’s because people actually like Wonka and don’t like Mean Girls, or if it’s because the original Mean Girls wasn’t a musical.

The first wonka film was a musical and In slot way so was Charlie and the chocolate factor so it was not much of a surprise to kids for Wonka. Also families are more forgiving. Mean Girls will not have that luxury

[ban1o]

The discourse about “hiding it’s a musical” makes me think about the THG: BOSS. Although I wouldn’t go as far as calling it a musical, Rachel Ziegler’s character sang like 8 songs. A lot of non book readers didn’t know there would be singing and I did see some tiktoks that thought the singingwas cringe. But overall people still seemed to like the movie and  it had good legs. 
 

This movie has a similar target audience, so i guess I just don’t get why not knowing a movie is a musical would make people mad or affect audience reaction and WOM. 

Edited January 13 by ban1o

[filmlover]

22 minutes ago, Dreadnought said:

 

I'm about as far from the target audience for BoC as possible and I've seen plenty of advertising both on TV and YouTube.

I did see some quick ads for it but have to imagine they weren't effective enough that they would've moved the needle. Then again, there probably was no moving the needle since biblical comedies are always going to be niche in terms of appeal.

[emoviefan]

Seems like a good weekend for 2 of the 3 newcomers. The 3rd bombing is not a surprise. The reviews are not terrible but the subject matter was never going to bring in a audience and Sony did not even try it seems. Mean Girls will have shit legs but it was a streaming movie they decided to make theatrical so it's all gravy and Beekeeper way overperforming the Statham star vehicle norm and seems like it will have Good WOM. 

[WrathOfHan]

Eh, I can't imagine audiences being shocked that Mean Girls is a musical will hurt legs that badly. It probably won't get more than a 2.7-2.8x regardless

[YM!]

Solid OW for Mean Girls but suspect bad legs due to poor audience reception. Think the musical surprise hurt (I'm still reminded that my cousin my age lost all interest in Mean Girls when I told her it was a musical and my family didn't care for the stealth musical in Wonka makes me wonder if it'd leg stronger if they were honest)

 

Beekeeper is also doing quite nicely, thinking it could do 20m for the three day if not for the shitty winter storm. Anyone But You is looking noice as it seems likely to do 100m at the end of its run, making me feel maybe rom-coms are back (think the Scarlett/Channing one could be big this summer).

 

Migration’s trek to 100m is in jeopardy with a bad hold but still think it's possible due to the lackluster calendar. In hindsight, weak legs made since with poor PostTrak scores with adults (like worse than Wish). Considering Elemental is the only animation original within the past seven years to do 150m domestic, not feeling too optimistic about animated originals right now even with rave WOM.

[MovieMan89]

I think only the diehard MG stans are showing up to this for OW and legs would depend entirely on if they spread incredible WOM (doubt it). Given that, I think it could be insanely frontloaded 

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

lol damn Migration is collapsing hard if those numbers stick. 100 is in jeopardy

The good news is it still manages to be a small win for Illumination at a measly 70m budget. Should easily cross the 200 mark WW

[Dreadnought]

1 hour ago, ban1o said:

The discourse about “hiding it’s a musical” makes me think about the THG: BOSS. Although I wouldn’t go as far as calling it a musical, Rachel Ziegler’s character sang like 8 songs. A lot of non book readers didn’t know there would be singing and I did see some tiktoks that thought the singingwas cringe. But overall people still seemed to like the movie and  it had good legs. 
 

This movie has a similar target audience, so i guess I just don’t get why not knowing a movie is a musical would make people mad or affect audience reaction and WOM. 

 

I think the difference is that the music in THG:BOSS consisted of stage or quasi-stage performances so the songs didn't break immersion/narrative flow/suspension of disbelief. 

[CJohn]

What states is the snow storm affecting and how much do you guys think it will affect the box office? 10%?