Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[von Kenni]

40 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

7M monday would be a great result. 

 

I wonder how much Monday could be surpressed if people want to make sure that they see it on PLFs and if that somehow limits it in the areas where are most demand for Dune. I'm trying to be ready if it's lower than expected.

[ozardvark]

4 minutes ago, TJ327 said:

- Children of Men

- The Shape of Water

- Pacific Rim

A movie doesn’t need to gross a billion to be culturally impactful. Hell it doesn’t even need to be profitable initially. Blade Runner is one of the most impactful sci-fi films of all time and it BARELY limped to a small profit in the 80s.

Cuaron did Children of Men. Replace with Pan's Labyrinth.   

[4815162342]

5 minutes ago, TJ327 said:

- Children of Men

 

 

Not Del Toro

[Last Man Standing]

10 minutes ago, TJ327 said:

- Children of Men

- The Shape of Water

- Pacific Rim

A movie doesn’t need to gross a billion to be culturally impactful. Hell it doesn’t even need to be profitable initially. Blade Runner is one of the most impactful sci-fi films of all time and it BARELY limped to a small profit in the 80s.

Children of Men wasn't Del Toro, and The Shape of Water is not culturally impactful. Pacific Rim is borderline but I'll give it to you, but it also massively benefited from the cinematic experience, if it was released on Netflix it would've probably been instantly forgotten.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

7 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

I wonder how much Monday could be surpressed if people want to make sure that they see it on PLFs and if that somehow limits it in the areas where are most demand for Dune. I'm trying to be ready if it's lower than expected.

 

Yeah that and people working are the big concerns. That said, I also think older audiences will provide a benefit on weekdays if the audience stats are to go by.

[Eric S'ennui]

13 minutes ago, TJ327 said:

- Children of Men

- The Shape of Water

- Pacific Rim

A movie doesn’t need to gross a billion to be culturally impactful. Hell it doesn’t even need to be profitable initially. Blade Runner is one of the most impactful sci-fi films of all time and it BARELY limped to a small profit in the 80s.

People already told you about Children of Men, but I'm willing to throw in not just Pan's Labyrinth, but even his Pinocchio movie, despite its Netflix status. It's already earned tons of acclaim and awards attention, and has garnered notoriety among animation fans and film buffs. Obviously it won't ever be as iconic as the Disney film, but I think it has garnered a fanbase, which is still enough to leave some "cultural impact", a very subjective term that can mean anything. There was a whole "what's your favorite non-Disney animated movie" trend on Twitter a few days ago, and it was a pretty common one.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

The Hellboy films feel like pretty obvious contendors for the del Toro question no?

[vale9001]

Movies on streaming platforms can have an impact but the problem is doesn't last that much. 

 

E.T is multi generational cause every 10 -15 years comes back to theaters. New home video editions with new contents or new formats (blu ray -4k). A lot of people just see and discover movies on television. Maybe americans are not so used to it but in Europe for example there are constantly movies on TV at every hour on "broadcast chanels"

 

Movies don't need to be discovered only when they come out but to be constantly rediscovered. 

 

Old Movies by other distributors for One year come on Netflix, the year after the same movie moves on prime video..so there is Always a kind of "new arrive" aura around it even if It's an old movie.

 

If you take Maestro... It was released on Netflix on a specific day. There, only for the Netflix subscribers, the movie dies. No rental after some month, no home video after some month, no cable TV after some month, no free television after some month.

 

Netflix movies go lost in the algorithm and after their release they will never be "new" for someone else. 

Edited March 5 by vale9001

[redfirebird2008]

Will be interesting to see how the legs play out for Dune Part 2. Needs to reach $250M domestic for a 3x multiplier, which seems like a solid target. 

[M37]

Just a general word of caution...

 

I know the box office has been boooring for a while, and Dune II is the shiny new to to play (math) with, but wouldn't try to read too much into the IM or daily fluctuations (Sat/Sun and Sun/Mon drops, etc). Not only is the film itself in its own category as far as demos, its also Spring Break period, and that added grossing potential not uniform for previous comps

 

Should have a fairly good idea where its heading by this upcoming Sunday. But for the record, would expect Dune II to make between ~$6.0-$7.5M on Monday (~21-26% of its Saturday gross)

[Ziddletwix]

3 hours ago, leoh said:

Gitesh calling it FINAL numbers is weird because these def are not actuals, and so are NOT final numbers.

 

these are ESTIMATES by Warner Bros.

 

Let’s see how the actuals go. Paramount made a mistaken of 600K on One Love first Sunday estimate numbers.

 

So Dune actuals for example may bring 83M.

 

Anyways those are not final numbers, they are not actuals.

 

 

 

 

I'm a bit new to this—exactly when should we expect the actuals to posted to thenumbers.com? Is it normally by Monday afternoon, or does it sometimes take til Tuesday?

[ChipDerby]

1 minute ago, Ziddletwix said:

 

I'm a bit new to this—exactly when should we expect the actuals to posted to thenumbers.com? Is it normally by Monday afternoon, or does it sometimes take til Tuesday?

 

Depends! USUALLY it's late afternoon on Monday. A holiday will push that to Tuesday. And sometimes some studios drag their ass.

[M37]

1 minute ago, Ziddletwix said:

 

I'm a bit new to this—exactly when should we expect the actuals to posted to thenumbers.com? Is it normally by Monday afternoon, or does it sometimes take til Tuesday?

Today, but studios are on the own timeline for reporting. Typically all the numbers are final by 5/6pm ET

[redfirebird2008]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just a general word of caution...

 

I know the box office has been boooring for a while, and Dune II is the shiny new to to play (math) with, but wouldn't try to read too much into the IM or daily fluctuations (Sat/Sun and Sun/Mon drops, etc). Not only is the film itself in its own category as far as demos, its also Spring Break period, and that added grossing potential not uniform for previous comps

 

Should have a fairly good idea where its heading by this upcoming Sunday. But for the record, would expect Dune II to make between ~$6.0-$7.5M on Monday (~21-26% of its Saturday gross)

 

Internal multiplier for opening weekend doesn't mean much. The Marvel films are a good example of that. Backloaded on opening weekend, but pretty frontloaded in general across the full run at the box office.

 

Dune Part 1 had a 2.7 multiplier. It seems the new one has much stronger WOM, so hopefully that will lead to better legs. But it also opened twice as large as the first movie. The bigger they open, the harder it is to pull off strong legs. $250M would be a 3.0 multiplier and seems like a good target. Anything higher would be awesome to see. 

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just a general word of caution...

 

I know the box office has been boooring for a while, and Dune II is the shiny new to to play (math) with, but wouldn't try to read too much into the IM or daily fluctuations (Sat/Sun and Sun/Mon drops, etc). Not only is the film itself in its own category as far as demos, its also Spring Break period, and that added grossing potential not uniform for previous comps

 

Should have a fairly good idea where its heading by this upcoming Sunday. But for the record, would expect Dune II to make between ~$6.0-$7.5M on Monday (~21-26% of its Saturday gross)

You are overstimating the spring break effect. Its not across all states(my kids had week after valentine off and will have another week around Easter off as well). IM is a big deal as its weekday as a % of OW will be higher and it being adult focused will still have big Fri/Sat increases. We will definitely see WOM be a big factor for this movie. 

[Bob Train]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

$250M domestic would mean $550M ish worldwide which is actually pretty blegh on a $190M budget

OS will have better legs than Domestic like Oppenheimer

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Australia did open, IMDB is wrong.

You are right. I did not consider AU for sure. few big markets left are China, Japan and Gulf region. 

[M37]

30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

You are overstimating the spring break effect. It’s not across all states(my kids had week after valentine off and will have another week around Easter off as well). IM is a big deal as its weekday as a % of OW will be higher and it being adult focused will still have big Fri/Sat increases. We will definitely see WOM be a big factor for this movie. 

It was more college SB I was thinking that might impact number

 

On the IM, it might be that we just see higher weekends (F/S) and lower weekdays through the run, primarily due to age skew and running time (see previously: Avatar). Again, think it’s too early to make sweeping declarations off the few data points on hand: the are multiple explanations for the path that has been taken thusfar 

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Internal multiplier for opening weekend doesn't mean much. The Marvel films are a good example of that. Backloaded on opening weekend, but pretty frontloaded in general across the full run at the box office.

 

Dune Part 1 had a 2.7 multiplier. It seems the new one has much stronger WOM, so hopefully that will lead to better legs. But it also opened twice as large as the first movie. The bigger they open, the harder it is to pull off strong legs. $250M would be a 3.0 multiplier and seems like a good target. Anything higher would be awesome to see. 

Marvel films are not backloaded on OW

[Grand Cine]

For the next days , Creed 3 and The Batman are the best comp for Dune 2 ( same time of opening)

 

The Batman :

Mon : 10,82M (-68%)

Tues : 10,77M (-0,5%)

Wed : 8,47M (-21%)

Thu : 8,44M (-0,3%)

2nd Weekend : 66,5M (-50% , -41% without previews)

 

Creed 3 :

Mon : 4,28M (-71%)

Tue : 5,15M (+20%)

Wed : 3,37M (-35%)

Thu : 3M (-11%)

2nd Weekend : 27,2M (-53% , -48% without previews)

 

I think Dune 2 will be between this two next days and same for next weekend , lower trajectory than The Batman ( because the latter have any competition ) but better than Creed 3 ( because the latter faced against Scream VI which has a part of the demo target and he had taken a lot of PLF and all IMAX screens , which isn't the same for Dune 2 which has KF4 which don't have the same demo target and will take just a few PLF the morning and afternoon )

 

To conclude i think a 2nd Weekend around 40M and a total after 10 days about 145M