3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

[leoh]

Just now, Eric Atreides said:

 

 

wow those optimistic 60M+ estimates now look realistic ones!!!!

[Steele131]

Dune 20M+

[filmnerdjamie]

 

[TMP]

The Dune sat bumps have been nutso 

[DAJK]

Yea I have to retract what I said earlier about Panda not looking like it’s going to have crazy Sat bumps. Matinees were a bit weaker than I thought they would be, but evening presales and walkups are very very strong.

[Bob Train]

KFP4 is headed for $200m at this point. Great -43% drop for Dune as well. March headed for $700m+ for sure.

Edited March 10 by Bob Train

[filmnerdjamie]

 

[Mojoguy]

60M and 47M is great for theaters. 107M from the Top 2 combined!

 

Oscar should have barely any impact this Sunday.

[leoh]

7 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Yea I have to retract what I said earlier about Panda not looking like it’s going to have crazy Sat bumps. Matinees were a bit weaker than I thought they would be, but evening presales and walkups are very very strong.

Yeah most of us was skeptical about that Variety article reporting Panda would have a 60M+ ow, which seems very reasonable right now.

[von Kenni]

24 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Just pseudo-intellectualizing here but I wouldn't be surprised if Panda drew here some of those GA people who were on the fence about Dune or saw Part One and weren't sure if they should give another try for Dune. Instead they opted in for a known thing that they knew is all good popcorn fun (as I feel about the Panda and will most likely see it in theaters) and took the safe bet. It probably took millions, maybe $5M? from Dune this weekend but I think most of that is still in play for the weekdays or the next weekend. I.e. from those overlapping potential audience that could watch both, most could still go see Dune too after all the WOM but not just this weekend.

 

As a side note, points to Charlie who has most of the times been on the lower end of projections for Dune 1 and 2 for keeping the "hope" up for potential bigger numbers. Although I'm sure as always with him, he'll let the numbers guide and not jump on any hype or gloom-doom trains.

Edited March 10 by von Kenni
Typo

[AniNate]

Said it in the Panda thread but I think the pre-Dune spot was a shrewd last-minute marketing move, my crowd ate that up

[leoh]

8 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

60M and 47M is great for theaters. 107M from the Top 2 combined!

 

Oscar should have barely any impact this Sunday.

It certainly will have (almost) no impact on Panda, it’s a kinds movie. It might have some impact on Dune, which has a way more cinephile audience. But I agree it won’t be that much, maybe 30% drop from Saturday instead of those -25% Dune had last week.

Edited March 10 by leoh

[AniNate]

This bodes well for IF in May, I think, by the time that comes out families will once again be starved for something new. I trust that will also help alleviate complaints that they only want sequels.

[von Kenni]

10 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

 

IF that Sat number holds, it'll be just 28.6% drop from the last Sat!?

 

[ThomasNicole]

I do think Panda strong overperformance probably steal some bucks from Dune 

 

Maybe 2-3M and prevent it from 50M 2nd weeeknd 

 

It doesn’t matter tho since both are strong. KFP4 can try 60M afterall, 200M is possible. 
 

+47 for Dune is amazing as well. 300M is still possible. 

[redfirebird2008]

Impressive numbers for both movies. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

The movies are back.

 

(I say before April ends with disappointment after disappointment)

[nguyenkhoi282]

Voldy is saying 20.5M SAT, which would be a 66% jump over FRI, a bit lower than my 70%+ range. It should be due to larger raw gross than my Oppie & Avatar comps. SAT jumps should be even larger in upcoming weeks.

 

47M 2nd weekend (-42%) / FSS (-33%) => 158M

2nd weekdays = 5.1 + 5.8 + 4.6 + 4.5 = 20M => 178M

3rd weekend = 9 + 15 + 11 = 35M (-25%) => 213M 

3rd weekdays = 15M => 228M 

4th week = 32M (-36%) => 260M

5th week (GvK) = 18M (-44%) => 278M

Remaining = 12+8+5+3+2 = 30M => 308M

 

IMO, 250M is locked, 275M is comfortable and 300M is in reach.

 

 

 

[emoviefan]

The family audiences were pent up and ready for something it seems. 

[grim22]

This was a great press tour though. 

 

 

Post by @dailycosmicmarvel

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Not like she was the only one though

 

 

Post by @screenthrill

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