Weekend estimates | 31.70M GODZILLA × KONG: TNE | 10.10M MONKEY MAN | 9.00M GHOSTBUSTERS: FE | 8.36M THE FIRST OMEN | 7.85M KFP IV | 7.20M DUNE II

[ChipDerby]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not sure but may be Netflix has kept streaming rights and sold just theatrical rights. In that case no losers there.

 

That would put Netflix in the hole by $20 mil though.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

That would put Netflix in the hole by $20 mil though.

Netflix would have spent that $30M for streaming only, now they got bonus $10M from theatrical along with marketing spend by Universal giving film awareness and now they can get good viewership when it streams.

[M37]

59 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Does this refer to Barbenheimer? Or something else?

Barbie, Mario, Oppy, Gentleminions, whatever 

 

Movies are a social event, so if something doesn’t have the franchise cache of a CMB or Avatar, it can still pull in a bigger audience by becoming a “thing”, activating that FOMO switch where “everyone” wants to go 

[ChipDerby]

50 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Netflix would have spent that $30M for streaming only, now they got bonus $10M from theatrical along with marketing spend by Universal giving film awareness and now they can get good viewership when it streams.

 

$30 mil is an insane price to pay for streaming rights lmao

[Issac Newton]

THE AMATEUR (20th) previously dated on 11/8/24 moves to 4/11/25

 

NIGHTBITCH (Searchlight) is now dated on 12/6/24 (Limited)

 

MOANA (Disney) previously dated on 6/27/25 moves to 7/10/26

 

UNTITLED DISNEY (Disney) previously dated on 7/10/26 is removed from schedule

 

THE MANDALORIAN & GROGU (Disney) is the updated title of UNTITLED STAR WARS dated on 5/22/26

 

TOY STORY 5 (Disney) is the updated title of UNTITLED PIXAR dated on 6/19/26

 

TRON: ARES (Disney) is the updated title of UNTITLED DISNEY dated on 10/10/25

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

$30 mil is an insane price to pay for streaming rights lmao

Not really. They are paying $10-20M for Indian films itself. $30M for American films will be on low end 

[crazymoviekid]

21 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

THE AMATEUR (20th) previously dated on 11/8/24 moves to 4/11/25

 

NIGHTBITCH (Searchlight) is now dated on 12/6/24 (Limited)

 

MOANA (Disney) previously dated on 6/27/25 moves to 7/10/26

 

UNTITLED DISNEY (Disney) previously dated on 7/10/26 is removed from schedule

 

THE MANDALORIAN & GROGU (Disney) is the updated title of UNTITLED STAR WARS dated on 5/22/26

 

TOY STORY 5 (Disney) is the updated title of UNTITLED PIXAR dated on 6/19/26

 

TRON: ARES (Disney) is the updated title of UNTITLED DISNEY dated on 10/10/25

Seems like a weird spot for Tron.  Don't think that'll stay.

 

Also weird Disney didn't want to replace the 11/8/24 spot with anything.  Could've put Night Bitch there or any other 20th Century title. 

[Eric the Fall Guy]

1 minute ago, crazymoviekid said:

Seems like a weird spot for Tron.  Don't think that'll stay.

 

Also weird Disney didn't want to replace the 11/8/24 spot with anything.  Could've put Night Bitch there or any other 20th Century title. 

The obvious play was having Moana 2 on that date so it could run away from Wicked and get all the PLFs to itself. But Disney is very stupid and stubborn and loves to stick with the same release dates, even when it obviously makes more sense to move. But hey, if Disney wants to self-sabotage their movies, so be it. 🤷 

[toutvabien]

They really are making Toy Story 5 Jesus Christ

[PrinceRico]

20 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

They really are making Toy Story 5 Jesus Christ

The first 4 are beloved, I also critically acclaim, and massive box office hits. Of course they're going to keep going.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

58 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

They really are making Toy Story 5 Jesus Christ

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

[Dominic Draper]

45 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

The first 4 are beloved, I also critically acclaim, and massive box office hits. Of course they're going to keep going.

4 didn't need to exist. It was fine, but didn't add anything and felt like a cash grab.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Also, Godzilla x Kong has toppled Skull Island and is now my new favourite of this franchise. It does almost everything right, and gave me everything I ever wanted out of such a movie. You can definitely tell that they didn't have to edit it down to the bare essentials this time like they did for the last movie, as it feels like a more well-rounded, robust story than that. And the movie greatly benefits from that. As my first Godzilla experience on the big screen in almost half a decade, it did not disappoint!

[Shawn Robbins]

Way too early Friday #s from source:

 

GxK 7.7 - 8

MM 4.2 - 4.4

TFO 3.3 - 3.5

[M37]

20 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

GxK 7.7 - 8

If that value holds (and fwiw I'd prob take the over), and the FSS plays out like Kong Skull Island on this same (Final Four) weekend, looking at only ~$28-$29M second frame. That would put a $200M+ domestic finish in serious jeopardy

 

22 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

MM 4.2 - 4.4

TFO 3.3 - 3.5

Again presuming these early numbers don't shift, probably sub-$12M and sub-$10M respectively

[Unfitclock]

@Shawn Robbins would those be true Friday numbers?

[Unfitclock]

That Friday increase seems way too low

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, vafrow said:

It's interesting how the MM performance feels disappointing, but by almost all metrics, it should be considered a win.

 

I think there's still a belief that good reviews should translate to better results. I think we're seeing for a film like this, there's limits.

 

The challenge with this film, even with it likely turning a profit for Universal, is that there's probably not a lot of opportunities to pick up a film like this at this price.

 

They bought it cheap from Netflix. At the $30M Netflix paid, this would be a bigger challenge.

 

 

I think folks just got their hopes up slightly after the buzz at SXSW, though that had cooled down quite a bit (its RT score having dropped a bit since then). It can get dicey hedging box office bets on festival buzz knowing how contained and targeted those can be, whether it's Comic-Con (tale as old as time that what plays like gangbusters there doesn't always go on to enjoy similar success when a much broader audience has access to them) or TIFF, and especially if you're a project that wasn't really on people's radars in the first place.

[Shawn Robbins]

17 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

@Shawn Robbins would those be true Friday numbers?

Previews included.

[Unfitclock]

@Shawn Robbins oof that would be very not good