Weekend Thread (5/17-19/2024) | WEEKEND ESTIMATES: $35M for IF, $12M for Strangers, $2.85M for Back to Black, $26M for Apes

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Unfitclock said:

@keysersoze123 what are you seeing on your end for if

No idea. Whatever I had i posted earlier today. It must have had strong walkups to hit 8.5m as I thought it would like 7m considering its presales yesterday plus relatively low ATP(No Imax). But @charlie Jatinder update this late is normally very close to studio estimates. Deadline will also update soonn. 

[Squire]

33 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

No.Probably just being paranoid. Just the reviews have said it does not play like Fury Road. It takes it's time and and is not a petal to to the metal ride like Fury Road was. After that Apes reaction where so many people seem to be not happy that it is not an all action  from beginning to end and takes it's time. They are different movies but just never sure how moviegoers are going to react to something if they don't think they got what they wanted any more.

 I wouldn’t be surprised for it to have a somewhat divided reaction if people are expecting Fury Road 2.0.

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Squire said:

 I wouldn’t be surprised for it to have a somewhat divided reaction if people are expecting Fury Road 2.0.

Why would anyone expect that considering the cast is different. No Hardy or Theron here. 

[SaltyPistola]

14 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Starpower not dead? 🤔

 

I know the high tracking and reported budget make it seem less impressive but it is pretty notable that this original family film will likely out-open the last two Disney branded ones imo

Starpower is dead until it isn't, and then what do you know it's dead again 

[AniNate]

Hopefully Apes held decent so this word-of-mouth discourse is mothballed for a bit

[filmlover]

Surprised there was ever doubt that IF would do well. It was the first family movie eons, the premise was easily marketable, and the high level of talent involved probably made this a more appealing option than most to parents. Co-existing with Garfield (which should do well but definitely isn't looking to be another The Super Mario Bros Movie) was always easy IMO.

 

The Strangers is probably doing as well as it ever was given the poor reviews I suppose. Mainstream horror seems to be in a bit of a creative rut at the moment. Back to Black being DOA was entirely expected.

[emoviefan]

18 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Hopefully Apes held decent so this word-of-mouth discourse is mothballed for a bit

That would be great. Would love to see it happen. Thursday's numbers don't seem to be pointing to that though  unless it has a massive jump today and into the weekend.

[ChipDerby]

Just to head it off but there are two NBA Game 7s on Sunday so adjust expectations 

[elhassane31]

What would be a good Friday number for Apes? 25-30m?

[Speedorito]

IF Cinemascore: A

Edited May 18 by Speedorito

[Speedorito]

At least Deadline has something positive to mitigate the old 40M+ predictions tomorrow.

[AniNate]

Nontoxic WOM for IF definitely improves its prospects of holding strong until inside out comes out. May 31 is a dead week which should be a boon to pretty much all the mainstream stuff in release, unless perhaps Disney decides to go wider with young woman at the last minute.

[movies!movies!]

 

[movies!movies!]

 

[Flopped]

12-14 for Strangers. Not terrible 

 

https://x.com/meJat32/status/1791703897851228401

[baumer]

3 hours ago, elhassane31 said:

What would be a good Friday number for Apes? 25-30m?

 

You mean weekend number right? There's no way it's doing 25 million on a second Friday when It only opened to 55

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

Surprised there was ever doubt that IF would do well. It was the first family movie eons, the premise was easily marketable, and the high level of talent involved probably made this a more appealing option than most to parents. Co-existing with Garfield (which should do well but definitely isn't looking to be another The Super Mario Bros Movie) was always easy IMO.

 

The Strangers is probably doing as well as it ever was given the poor reviews I suppose. Mainstream horror seems to be in a bit of a creative rut at the moment. Back to Black being DOA was entirely expected.

Well it’s probably because Paramount put out that $40m number themselves, Shawn confirmed it was them. So if they were expecting 40, not sure they’ll be too happy with 30. However, if it gets over $100m with an A cinemascore and does enough internationally to double its budget they might be happy in the end. 

 

2 hours ago, Flopped said:

12-14 for Strangers. Not terrible 

 

https://x.com/meJat32/status/1791703897851228401

Potentially the first horror film to open over $12m in 2024. It’s been a weak first half (not quality wise of course). 

[Noctis]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

 

You mean weekend number right? There's no way it's doing 25 million on a second Friday when It only opened to 55

 

You fucking Canadian bastard. Hope you're doing well.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

‘IF’ Lighter At $30M+, ‘Strangers: Chapter 1’ Stronger At $12M, ‘Back To Black’ Goes Belly-Up At $3M – Saturday Box Office Update

https://deadline.com/2024/05/box-office-if-back-to-black-amy-winehouse-strangers-2-1235920634/

Quote

SATURDAY AM EARLY: IF is looking at $30.5M opening this weekend after a $10M Friday + previews, at 4,041 theaters and while that might scream lower than expected on the surface since it’s below its $40M projections, triple note, it’s a PG-rated live-action film. There’s a reason why they haven’t been greenlit in a while, and let’s not slam Paramount and John Krasinsksi for swinging for the fences on original content. Here’s the upside: with an A CinemaScore, this family movie is bound to leg out and fill a niche in the summer despite 50% Rotten reviews. That’s just what family movies do. Rotten Tomatoes audience score is 85% fresh. At that starting point, IF‘s opening is just north of Ryan Reynold’s Free Guy ($28.3M), a previous piece of original IP for the actor. That PG-13 movie cleared $121.6M back in the late summer/early fall of 2021.

 

Meanwhile, coming in ahead of projections substantially is Lionsgate’s reboot, The Strangers – Chapter 1 with $12.3M after a $5M Friday + previews in third. That opening is a step up from the previous installment, 2018’s The Strangers: Prey at Night which debuted to $10.4M from embattled distributor Aviron. Clearly there’s a fan appetite here and good on Lionsgate for overindexing on this $8.5M production. CinemaScore is a C, which is average for a horror movie, but RT audience is 42%.

 

 

Again, the more big films, the more of a rhythm moviegoing find this summer. 20th Century Studios/Disney’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is seeing a second weekend between $23.5M-$25M in second, a -60% to a -57% decline. War for the Planet of the Apes posted a -63% second weekend with $20.8M, so a good hold here on the Wes Ball directed sequel. On the high end, that gets Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes to $100.4M, Disney’s first century mark grossing title of 2024. At 4,075 theaters, Apes still has the Imax screens versus IF which has PLFs.

 

Universal’s The Fall Guy at 3,845 theaters is eyeing a $2.25M third Friday for an $8M third weekend, -42%, for a running total of $62.5M. BTW, $8M was the same amount of money that David Leitch’s Bullet Train made in its third weekend. However, Fall Guy in its running cume is falling -9% behind Bullet Train.

 

And, wow, OMG, Focus Features’ Back to Black isn’t finding any kind of audience at a $3M opening after a $1.25M Friday in 2,010 locations. It’s not like the audiences stateside didn’t like it: It’s getting a B+ CinemaScore and 80% Rotten Tomatoes audience score. This movie, which British critics eviscerated is not getting a fair shake, with bad word of mouth crossing the Atlantic. Back to Black was bullied on social media for myriad reasons: many didn’t like Marisa Abela’s performance and look early on (sorry, shoot me, but she’s sublime in the movie), and that 13 years was too soon to make a biopic about the tragic performer. Also, some have sniped that the whole IP isn’t cross-generational enough ala Elvis and Bohemian Rhapsody to make a dent stateside and that the movie is too British for yanks. UK music critics have taken umbrage with some of the creative licenses that the biopic has pulled off. Pity. It’s a really good movie and the scene where Winehouse meets Jack O’Connell’s Blake for the first time is wonderfully romantic.

 

[Eric is Quiet]

24 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

And, wow, OMG, Focus Features’ Back to Black isn’t finding any kind of audience at a $3M opening after a $1.25M Friday in 2,010 locations. It’s not like the audiences stateside didn’t like it: It’s getting a B+ CinemaScore and 80% Rotten Tomatoes audience score. This movie, which British critics eviscerated is not getting a fair shake, with bad word of mouth crossing the Atlantic. Back to Black was bullied on social media for myriad reasons: many didn’t like Marisa Abela’s performance and look early on (sorry, shoot me, but she’s sublime in the movie), and that 13 years was too soon to make a biopic about the tragic performer. Also, some have sniped that the whole IP isn’t cross-generational enough ala Elvis and Bohemian Rhapsody to make a dent stateside and that the movie is too British for yanks. UK music critics have taken umbrage with some of the creative licenses that the biopic has pulled off. Pity. It’s a really good movie and the scene where Winehouse meets Jack O’Connell’s Blake for the first time is wonderfully romantic.

 

lol at Deadline Anthony getting all mad at people not seeing this random movie he liked. This man is so weird.