baumer Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 42 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said: I thought Empire was way optimistic. Deadline will be close on this for sure. Deadline is saying that 38 million includes the $12 million in previews. Empire is saying 48 couldn't they just be using different numbers? Empire be using the entire estimate whereas deadlines using just the Friday estimate the true friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 3 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: Potentially a typo but he also said taking aim at the September record which I can't imagine him saying if he actually meant to type 38, no? hmm. Still dont see how he can be close. He will update shortly for sure. His initial update was way too early dependent on just presales. Not sure what he saw that made him go so high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 2 minutes ago, baumer said: Deadline is saying that 38 million includes the $12 million in previews. Empire is saying 48 couldn't they just be using different numbers? Empire be using the entire estimate whereas deadlines using just the Friday estimate the true friday? Deadline has screwed up before. But they are normally not that bad when it comes to big openers. I am just talking about Friday number. Its still possible that it has a huge saturday increase and it does over 100m weekend. But when it comes to friday, they get their data from studios. Multiple ones(not just WB here). Generally the studio releasing would be conservative and rest would make the most accurate extrapolation based on data. for small movies presales dont play a big role and so early projections could be way off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan C Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 Just now, keysersoze123 said: hmm. Still dont see how he can be close. He will update shortly for sure. His initial update was way too early dependent on just presales. Not sure what he saw that made him go so high. I think it's walk-up business. I mean, even Deadline is saying a $40M+ opening day is possible if walk-ups continue to be strong going into tonight. So maybe he's just making a guess based on how strong walk-ups will be. Still, $48M seems pretty damn high. Like, anything between $40-$45M would be understandable (though definitely optimistic), but going close to $50M is really damn optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 3 minutes ago, Ryan C said: I think it's walk-up business. I mean, even Deadline is saying a $40M+ opening day is possible if walk-ups continue to be strong going into tonight. So maybe he's just making a guess based on how strong walk-ups will be. Still, $48M seems pretty damn high. Like, anything between $40-$45M would be understandable (though definitely optimistic), but going close to $50M is really damn optimistic. Yeah. This. Number will end up between 40 and 45 including previews. Hopefully closer to 45. I never doubted Empire being high on this one. Just not 10M high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 3 minutes ago, Ryan C said: I think it's walk-up business. I mean, even Deadline is saying a $40M+ opening day is possible if walk-ups continue to be strong going into tonight. So maybe he's just making a guess based on how strong walk-ups will be. Still, $48M seems pretty damn high. Like, anything between $40-$45M would be understandable (though definitely optimistic), but going close to $50M is really damn optimistic. 45m seems to high to me as well. it will be mother of all under index for a movie. 40m is definitely on the menu. Hopefully we see strong walkups for evening shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 It does seem like a movie that should play well for late nights too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattW Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 All depends if ec looked at the number on his own or if he got some help. I recall back in the day when he was first giving early #s here he repeated numerous times that he was bad at math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mickiland16 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 4 hours ago, grim22 said: I wonder what will be the nostalgia franchises resurrected when the generational nostalgia hits the 2010s decade in 20 years time. Will be weird because not a lot of fresh franchises actually were made in movies in the 2010s I mean Inside Out 2 success was kinda a result of that already and so will be Zootopia and Moana sequels. How to Train Your Dragon is getting a live action remake next year. I think it's already happening but with family movies. If they stop after The Conjuring 4, a new one releasing in the middle of 2030s could be big for its genre. Since a sequel isn't happening because of the cast, maybe a remake of Twilight? The most recent book that wasn't even a new story (the events of the first one from Edward's POV) sold 1 million copies in the first week, that's double of what the Hunger Games prequel did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HummingLemon496 Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 (edited) Honestly looking at Reddit, I think @Cooper Legion was probably correct when he said $280M DOM for Joker 2. I was confident in this being a $425M+ movie. But I guess that's still ok. Edited September 6 by HummingLemon496 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted September 6 Share Posted September 6 I think it will get closer to 30 True Friday. 25 just seems too low. unless it does end being somewhat frontloaded ala Romulus. And it looks like the holdovers are taking big hits no surprise. Only DP and W to go over 5 for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 EC probably is assuming walk-ups will be strong through the late night. We'll have to see but I'd be surprised if he's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallas Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said: Honestly looking at Reddit, I think @Cooper Legion was probably correct when he said $280M DOM for Joker 2. I was confident in this being a $425M+ movie. But I guess that's still ok. I don't think the reviews are gonna have that big of an impact. The first movie was equally divisive and the same crowd that hated on that is hating on this now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Reynolds Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said: So 40 to 45 FRI DOM. Excellent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darth Lehnsherr Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 (edited) 110-112 OW would be insane. Edited September 7 by Mojoguy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallas Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 I knew 38M was a lowball 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 5 minutes ago, Mojoguy said: Even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
excel1 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 That is an utterly bonkers number. Jenna Ortega, welcome to the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
