Weekend Thread Sept 20th-22nd

[filmpalace]

800K+ for all previews of The Substance is pretty amazing. Really glad it's already off to a good start.

Edited 15 hours ago by filmpalace

[wattage]

1 minute ago, Starphanluke said:

Each day was single showing. Saturday’s at 5p. Wednesday’s at 7p.

Okay so I didn't misread Saturday, it does seem I misread Wednesday though. When I peeled at my Cinemark app a long while ago it had a single normal digital showing on Saturday and then 1 3D showing Wednesday and 1 digital showing. Very possible that they just screwed that up for Wednesday and it just got corrected because I never checked on the showtimes after the weekend. 

 

Thank you for the info! 

[Krissykins]

I read it as $512k previews, $327k from Thursday night, so $185k from Wednesday for The Substance.

 

PostTrak is 80% and 4 stars.

 

Budget: $17.5m then Mubi bought worldwide rights for $12.5m. 

Edited 15 hours ago by Krissykins

[wattage]

Couldn't find any dollar estimates for Saturday either so throwing up my hands on that one. Even being well selling, with single showings, I'm going throwing a dart and landing on 1 mill max on combined EA in my head. 

 

Substance I'm going tomorrow night to see. I hope it continues strong through the weekend. 

[Grand Cine]

Great PostTrack numbers for Transformers One with 5/5 stars and 75 definite recommand , An A cinemascore for sure .

[YM!]

59 minutes ago, wattage said:

Was Saturday not single showings? When I looked at all my locals it was all single showings that day, so I assumed people were doing multi theater tracks on the single showings and then Wednesday had way more showings available in different formats. Similar to what happened with Mutant Mayhem and it's Saturday fan event. If that's not the case then that's my mistake. 

Single showings but more theaters.

[justnumbers]

This whole Lionsgate situation is interesting just in the way that these movies have been scheduled.

 

This to me feels cleaning house of a bunch of titles from previous administration before they get to 2025, barely promote it and how it goes, it goes since they cover a lot of the costs with international sells and pvod. 

 

Although in 2025 they have a years delayed title in February again but it does seem like a much better slate with potential with good promotion. There's just no way a Studio is this sloppy and incompetent. You can't convince me that this isn't cleaning shelves.

[CJohn]

13 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

This whole Lionsgate situation is interesting just in the way that these movies have been scheduled.

 

This to me feels cleaning house of a bunch of titles from previous administration before they get to 2025, barely promote it and how it goes, it goes since they cover a lot of the costs with international sells and pvod. 

 

Although in 2025 they have a years delayed title in February again but it does seem like a much better slate with potential with good promotion. There's just no way a Studio is this sloppy and incompetent. You can't convince me that this isn't cleaning shelves.

They have been like this for the past 10 years, how is this a surprise? Unless the movies sell themselves, shit is fucked.

[justnumbers]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

They have been like this for the past 10 years, how is this a surprise? Unless the movies sell themselves, shit is fucked.

Do they usually schedule 7 movies in 1 month and a half? I mean, I will admit I'm not well versed into Lionsgate history so you may be right.

[titanic2187]

Lionsgate actually had a good 2023. Their John Wick 4 is a big hit and HG prequel legged out to a decent sized hit too. Saw X is also profitable and Jesus revolution was a surprise hit. On top of that, Margaret is critically acclaimed. Sad to see the situation quickly deteriorate at their end.

[wattage]

Next year might be better for Lionsgate with Michael, the John Wick prequel and I believe another Saw movie coming out. What else do they have on the slate? I know this year it's just more dumps for the next months. 

[JonathanMB]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

I read it as $512k previews, $327k from Thursday night, so $185k from Wednesday for The Substance.

 

PostTrak is 80% and 4 stars.

 

Budget: $17.5m then Mubi bought worldwide rights for $12.5m. 

 

That seems more realistic than $800k+ from the two nights, but the wording says "another $327k from Thursday" which I think is where the confusion is arising. Granted, not like Deadline has misreported/poorly worded preview numbers before. I hope they clarify soon, as that means the difference between an OK $2M weekend and a phenomenal $5M+ start.

 

All early WOM indicators are all very promising though. It's also started with 83% verified on RT, and is also riding high on IMDB (8.0) and Letterboxd (4.07). While the film is wildly disturbing, I think the marketing and WOM have done a good job of preparing anyone who has bought tickets to it, and unlike a lot of other art house/""elevated"" horror films you can't accuse the film of being boring (which is pretty impressive considering it's 140 minutes long).

[BadOlCatSylvester]

 

[Eric Prime]

I mean I don't think Lionsgate's 2025 is looking that much better tbh. Better than this year, sure. But anything is better than Lionsgate's 2024. The only two movies on their slate that are looking like hits are the Michael Jackson movie and Saw XI. And even then, the Michael movie has so much potential to backfire for a variety of reasons that even I'm not super certain on it like a lot of others are. Everything else is looking like a bomb too (who asked for a Now You See Me 3), that I'm honestly curious if that new Hunger Games movie will even come out under Lionsgate.

[John Marston]

4 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

 

 

not a shock. This looks like TV show level animation and the blatant celebrity  casting was more of a turn off than draw 

Edited 12 hours ago by John Marston

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

not a shock. This looks like TV show level animation. 

Having seen the movie, that snark is unfair. Sadly, that's the impression the first trailer gave off, and that has stuck to the movie. Wild Robot is going to utterly destroy this next weekend, and that's depressing, because this movie deserves so much better.

[wattage]

2 hours ago, YM! said:

Single showings but more theaters.

Forgot to reply to this but even if it had more theaters I just have a hard time seeing anything approaching a single day 1M gross from single showing early access. Maybe combined across both days but even that's really pushing it to me. I'm still waiting on numbers from any of the trackers though, I know Jat posts the breakdowns sometimes. I'm gonna guess 2.5-2.6 on the pure Thursday just based on the sales trackers were reporting + other similar fan event early access stuff like Mutant Mayhem. 

 

Edit: just saw Lannisters rough estimate but still gonna wait on more info. If it's really not playing to families at all then I can see the weekend in the high 20s like you said. Gonna wait on the Saturday jump to see whats up. 

Edited 12 hours ago by wattage
Lannister tracking info

[Eric Prime]

Chris Hemsworth is going to play Thor for the next 30 years at this point. His anti-Midas Touch needs to be studied, holy shit.

[wattage]

12 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

I mean I don't think Lionsgate's 2025 is looking that much better tbh. Better than this year, sure. But anything is better than Lionsgate's 2024. The only two movies on their slate that are looking like hits are the Michael Jackson movie and Saw XI. And even then, the Michael movie has so much potential to backfire for a variety of reasons that even I'm not super certain on it like a lot of others are. Everything else is looking like a bomb too (who asked for a Now You See Me 3), that I'm honestly curious if that new Hunger Games movie will even come out under Lionsgate.

I think Michael is very easy if they just go the standard biopic route. They'll definitely get flack for not touching in any controversial topics but it'll be low impact. People want to go to the movie, listen along with the popular songs they know, go through a fairly predictable rise and fall and rise again character journey regardless of how false it may be, and then go home. 

 

On Hunger Games, yeah idk if they last long enough for that to come out. We'll see. 

[wattage]

4 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

Chris Hemsworth is going to play Thor for the next 30 years at this point. His anti-Midas Touch needs to be studied, holy shit.

The Touch is gonna hit Thor too if he comes back after Thor 4 was unmitigated trash. I don't see him doing another mainline movie and he can just pop up in other cosmic movies like a space phase 3 Iron Man.