JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Bishop54]

Any hope for Underworld Blood Wars this weekend?

[Noiret Jak]

01 (02) ¥187,000,000 ($1.6 million), -38%, ¥3,625,000,000 ($31.6 million), Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Disney) WK4
02 (03) ¥184,000,000 ($1.6 million), -20%, ¥22,675,000,000 ($216.2 million), Your Name. (Toho) WK20
03 (01) ¥173,000,000 ($1.5 million), -43%, ¥3,000,000,000 ($25.9 million), Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (Sony) WK3
04 (05) ¥117,000,000 ($1.0 million), -28%, ¥2,525,000,000 ($21.7 million), Yo-Kai Watch: The Movie 3 (Toho) WK4
05 (04) ¥111,000,000 ($1.0 million), -40%, ¥6,675,000,000 ($59.3 million), Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Warner Bros.) WK7
06 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($855,000), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Kizumonogatari Part 3: Reiketsu (Toho Video Division) NEW
07 (06) ¥78,000,000 ($665,000), -22%, ¥1,750,000,000 ($15.1 million), A Man Called Pirate (Toho) WK5
08 (07) ¥53,000,000 ($460,000), -36%, ¥925,000,000 ($8.2 million), The Mole Song 2: Hong Kong Crazy Uproar Song (Toho) WK3
09 (09) ¥46,000,000 ($395,000), +30%, ¥1,065,000,000 ($9.3 million), In This Corner of the World (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK9
10 (08) ¥45,000,000 ($385,000), -29%, ¥1,225,000,000 ($10.6 million), Tomorrow, I Will Date With Yesterday's You (Toho) WK5

The Weekend Forecast this weekend is very tricky and a bit unpredictable. Last weekend was, of course, New Year, meaning that last Saturday's evening/night business was incredibly weak, while Sunday was the 1st (a major discount day) that gave everything a boost... So, I'm not too confident in weekend predictions this week given the unique circumstances. 

There should, however, be a very close race for the #1 spot between reigning champ Resident Evil (aiming to achieve its 3rd-consecutive weekend at #1), Rogue One (hoping to earn a second week at #1, since this is its last chance), and Your Name. (now entering its 20th weekend and looking to make more history). 

>Your Name. is also well on its way to challenging Spirited Away's record for most-consecutive weeks in the Top 5 (21) and Top 10 (26). After this weekend, it needs 3 more weeks in the Top 5, and 6 more weeks in the Top 10; both appear likely, given its performance and the IMAX release next week. If Your Name. reclaims the #1 spot this weekend, or the next, it'll be the only film to ever rise back to the #1 position in its 20th/21st week of release.

>Kizumonogatari Part 3: Reiketsu is the only wide opener this weekend (the post-New Year weekend is typically barren of wide openers), and just barely, playing on 118 screens. Its opening should mostly be inline with the past two films, though likely coming in just below the first film.

>In This Corner of the World will be given a well-deserved expansion this weekend due to its incredible performance in limited release over the past 8 weeks, and exceeding the ¥1 billion milestone on only 68 screens.

[chasmmi]

So that's now 2 films in 3 years that have broken $2B Yen. 

 

Is this a sign that whether its Your Name or something else, sooner rather than later, some critically and audience loved behemoth is going to take Spirited Away down. As opposed to that $30B yen figure being some unreachable impossibility we assume it is in today's climate (and any climate really). 

[Noiret Jak]

NEW ESTIMATES

 

 

 

 

Weekend Estimates (01/07-08)
01 (01) ¥264,000,000 ($2.3 million), -13%, ¥3,075,000,000 ($26.6 million), Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (Sony) WK3
02 (02) ¥238,000,000 ($2.0 million), -21%, ¥3,675,000,000 ($32.0 million), Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Disney) WK4
03 (03) ¥207,000,000 ($1.8 million), -10%, ¥22,700,000,000 ($216.4 million), Your Name. (Toho) WK20
04 (05) ¥204,000,000 ($1.7 million), +27%, ¥2,600,000,000 ($22.5 million), Yo-Kai Watch: The Movie 3 (Toho) WK4
05 (04) ¥146,000,000 ($1.2 million), -21%, ¥6,700,000,000 ($59.5 million), Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Warner Bros.) WK7
06 (06) ¥107,000,000 ($915,000), +07%, ¥1,775,000,000 ($15.3 million), A Man Called Pirate (Toho) WK5
07 (07) ¥94,000,000 ($805,000), +15%, ¥950,000,000 ($8.5 million), The Mole Song 2: Hong Kong Crazy Uproar Song (Toho) WK3
08 (08) ¥88,000,000 ($750,000), +38%, ¥1,275,000,000 ($11.0 million), Tomorrow, I Will Date With Yesterday's You (Toho) WK5
09 (---) ¥85,000,000 ($725,000), 0, ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), Kizumonogatari Part 3: Reiketsu (Toho Video Division) NEW
10 (09) ¥58,000,000 ($495,000), +64%, ¥1,075,000,000 ($9.4 million), In This Corner of the World (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK9

I said this weekend was unpredictable on Friday (due to coming off an usual New Year's Eve/New Year's Day weekend), and that it was. Everything benefitted from this being the last weekend before returning to work/school on Monday, especially any film that's been skewing toward children/teens (students) or seniors.

>Resident Evil: The Final Chapter likely achieved its third-consecutive week atop the box office, and is performing very well. It's currently the third highest grossing film in the franchise, and might be able to challenge Retribution's ¥3.8 billion total to become the second highest grossing film in the series, although Afterlife's ¥4.7 billion is out of reach. 

Regardless of it being either the second or third highest-grossing film in the Resident Evil franchise, the continued success of the series in Japan is remarkable. 

>Rogue One is trying its hardest to not become a one-weekend-wonder, but it's just not happening. After four weeks, its tracking ~54% behind The Force Awakens, and if it remains on that trajectory, it may still be able to reach the ¥5 billion ($40-45 million) blockbuster milestone, but its late legs are unlikely to be as good as The Force Awakens since it'll be more likely to lose screens at a quicker pace soon. We'll see. Spin-offs have a very poor track record in Japan, so if if reaches ¥5 billion, I'd consider the film a fair success even with the significant drop-off. 

>Your Name. wasn't able to reclaim the #1 spot in its 20th weekend of release, but it easily just broke Spirited Away's record 20th weekend of ¥155 million. It'll receive an IMAX release next weekend, so it has another chance of reclaiming the #1 spot next week. 

It'll also begin to challenge Spirited Away's record number of weekends in the Top 5 and Top 10 in the upcoming weeks, as it continues to close in on Frozen and Titanic for the #2 spot on the all-time list. Once it surpasses Frozen and Titanic, there'll undoubtedly be a push to challenge Spirited Away for the #1 all-time position. 

>Fantastic Beasts is now less than ¥200 million away from outgrossing Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 - the lowest grossing film in the Harry Potter franchise. It's very rare for a spin-off of any variety to match the success of the main series (Rogue One is a current example), so Beasts' success is quite significant.

[Bishop54]

Did Underworld Blood Wars get pushed back? I thought it opened this weekend.

[James]

I love FB's run in Japan! Simply beautiful!

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, Bishop54 said:

Did Underworld Blood Wars get pushed back? I thought it opened this weekend.

 

Maybe it just missed Top 10 

[Olive]

4 hours ago, fmpro said:

 

Maybe it just missed Top 10 

Yeah, only #24 on Sunday

[fmpro]

5 hours ago, Olive said:

Yeah, only #24 on Sunday

 

Loooooooooool 

[eXtacy]

Drops today are brutal. Everything looking down 80-90% from last week. Holidays over

[Olive]

YOUR NAME new total 22.92B as of Monday

RE6 - 3.34B yen

[Noiret Jak]

Weekend Actuals (01/07-08)
01 (01) ¥286,026,500 ($2.5 million), -06%, ¥3,201,701,700 ($27.7 million), Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (Sony) WK3
02 (02) ¥254,055,500 ($2.2 million), -16%, ¥3,731,764,700 ($32.3 million), Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Disney) WK4
03 (03) ¥242,619,600 ($2.1 million), +05%, ¥22,795,758,100 ($217.2 million), Your Name. (Toho) WK20
04 (05) ¥225,435,900 ($1.9 million), +39%, ¥2,695,173,700 ($23.3 million), Yo-Kai Watch: The Movie 3 (Toho) WK4
05 (04) ¥168,132,400 ($1.4 million), -09%, ¥6,760,004,300 ($59.9 million), Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Warner Bros.) WK7
06 (06) ¥120,368,500 ($1.0 million), +20%, ¥1,852,122,900 ($15.9 million), A Man Called Pirate (Toho) WK5
07 (07) ¥103,569,500 ($889,000), +24%, ¥1,031,307,000 ($9.2 million), The Mole Song 2: Hong Kong Crazy Uproar Song (Toho) WK3
08 (08) ¥95,690,900 ($825,000), +49%, ¥1,325,276,900 ($11.4 million), Tomorrow, I Will Date With Yesterday's You (Toho) WK5
09 (---) ¥86,718,100 ($747,000), 0, ¥86,718,100 ($747,000), Kizumonogatari Part 3: Reiketsu (Toho Video Division) NEW
10 (09) ¥77,425,110 ($668,000), +106%, ¥1,123,568,610 ($9.8 million), In This Corner of the World (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK9

>Resident Evil: The Final Chapter achieves its third-consecutive week atop the box office, and thanks to an impressive New Years boost, it's now tracking 1% ahead of Afterlife (the highest-grossing film in the series) and 14% ahead of Retribution (the second highest-grossing film in the series). 

The sixth, and final installment in the Resident Evil franchise will certainly outgross Retribution's ¥3.8 billion total now, and will exceed ¥4 billion ($35 million+) as well. I don't believe it'll be able to stay ahead of Afterlife and overtake it as the highest-grossing film in the series (it'll need to gross over ¥4.7 billion), but it could wind up within just ¥500 million or so from the record.

>Rogue One had to settle for second place once again, and continue to trail The Force Awakens by over 50% (53%). As far as a successful spin-off goes, one could consider it as such in a market that often look the other way at spin-off attempts, but overall... it's certainly a bit underwhelming, especially considering how well Fantastic Beasts, another spin-off, has performed in the market. 

As of this weekend, it's on track to reach at least ¥4.5 billion ($40 million), but it'll really want to reach that ¥5 billion ($45 million) blockbuster milestone.

>Your Name. managed its third-consecutive weekend increase and came pretty close to recaputing the #1 spot in its 20th weekend of release. And while it wasn't able to climb back to the top, yet, it did break Spirited Away's 20th weekend record by a significant 56%. 

After 20 weeks, Makoto Shinkai's mega-phenomenon has sold a mammoth 17,685,352 admissions. It's just a matter of time now for it to surpass Frozen and Titanic (already beat the latter's admissions), beginning its journey of breaking the only two records it'll have left to break: dethroning Spirited Away from atop the highest-grossing films and most-attended films charts. 

>Yo-Kai Watch 3 enjoyed a very generous New Years boost, much more than its two predecessors enjoyed (in terms of percentage), and actually ranked #1 over the weekend in terms of admissions. The Yo-Kai Watch franchise has declined at the box office much faster than Toho and Level 5 likely wanted it to; however, the legs for each film has begun to improve so it should begin to stabilize in the next couple years. 

If they can bring in ~¥3 billion every December, comparable to the annual franchises (e.g., Doraemon), they'll be set for many, many years to come. 

>Fantastic Beasts is now less than ¥100 million away from outgrossing Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 - the lowest grossing film in the Harry Potter franchise, which it'll do sometime this week. It's very rare for a spin-off of any variety to match the success of the main series (Rogue One is a current example), so Beasts' success is quite significant.

Edited January 11, 2017 by Noiret Jak

[lab276]

If Your Name makes it to 30b, then it will have something like 8b in 2017, would it be included in the 2017 chart from Eiren?  Because that could make it the biggest movie of 2017 also.

Edited January 11, 2017 by lab276

[KP1025]

2 hours ago, lab276 said:

If Your Name makes it to 30b, then it will have something like 8b in 2017, would it be included in the 2017 chart from Eiren?  Because that could make it the biggest movie of 2017 also.

1

 

Which movies could reasonably hit 8 billion yen or higher in 2017? SW: Episode 8 has the best chance but would be classed under 2018 based on when it makes most of its gross apparently (Jurassic World was listed as highest grossing film of 2015 and TFA was ranked among 2016 films). I guess that leaves just Beauty and the Beast? Maybe Moana if it has Frozen like reception (not expecting this but it's not impossible)?

[eXtacy]

22 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

Which movies could reasonably hit 8 billion yen or higher in 2017? SW: Episode 8 has the best chance but would be classed under 2018 based on when it makes most of its gross apparently (Jurassic World was listed as highest grossing film of 2015 and TFA was ranked among 2016 films). I guess that leaves just Beauty and the Beast? Maybe Moana if it has Frozen like reception (not expecting this but it's not impossible)?

 

Got to take into account possibility of surprise hit local films. Also Your Name is taking a huge hit this week with holidays over so I don't think it will get close to SA anymore.

[KP1025]

7 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

 

 Also Your Name is taking a huge hit this week with holidays over so I don't think it will get close to SA anymore.

 

 

I think that's fitting as I still prefer Miyazaki's film to Your Name.  I assume #2 position is still locked? It looks like it will have to absolutely collapse to not reach Frozen. 

[George Parr]

56 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

 

Got to take into account possibility of surprise hit local films. Also Your Name is taking a huge hit this week with holidays over so I don't think it will get close to SA anymore.

 

On the other hand, Your Name is getting an IMAX release this weekend (I think), which could counter the drop from the holiday season being over.

Edited January 11, 2017 by George Parr

[James]

Huge increase in estimates for FB. I think another 5m or so from Japan sounds about right. 

[Blaze Heatnix]

The RE7 release will probably give another boost to the Final Chapter's performance.

 

I mean, people will have a lot of Resident Evil to talk about in January, lol.

[Noiret Jak]

Very great for Resident Evil Final Chapter !