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Weekend Actuals (08/01-02)


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©2015 映画「進撃の巨人」製作委員会 ©諫山創/講談社

01 (--) ¥603,466,200 ($4.87 million), 0, ¥603,466,200 ($4.87 million), Attack on Titan - Part 1 (Toho) NEW
02 (--) ¥545,989,900 ($4.41 million), 0, ¥738,485,500 ($5.96 million), Minions (Toho-Towa) NEW

03 (01) ¥316,010,300 ($2.55 million), -14%, ¥2,695,485,400 ($21.8 million), Hero 2 (Toho) Week 3
04 (02) ¥284,501,100 ($2.30 million), -15%, ¥3,325,114,800 ($26.9 million), The Boy and the Beast (Toho) Week 4
05 (03) ¥259,554,800 ($2.09 million), -15%, ¥2,040,517,100 ($16.5 million), Inside Out (Disney) Week 3
06 (04) ¥141,527,000 ($1.14 million), -31%, ¥2,406,181,300 ($19.5 million), Terminator: Genisys (Paramount) Week 4
07 (05) ¥139,424,000 ($1.13 million), -26%, ¥1,350,261,200 ($11.0 million), Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (Toho) Week 3
08 (06) ¥97,078,800 ($783,000), -31%, ¥2,859,459,000 ($23.2 million), Avengers: Age of Ultron (Disney) Week 5
09 (07) ¥94,871,060 ($766,000), -23%, ¥2,211,552,340 ($18.0 million), Love Live! The School Idol Movie (Shochiku) Week 8
10 (09) ¥26,543,600 ($214,000), -16%, ¥387,022,300 ($3.2 million), Anpanman: Mija and the Magic Lamp (Tohokushinsha) Week 4

>Attack on Titan - Part 1 held off the Minions over the weekend, selling 466,953 tickets across 427 screens over the weekend.

The first part of the big budget live-action adaptation of the hit Attack on Titan series, directed by Shinji Higuchi (who will co-direct the Godzilla reboot next year), bested the debuts of the first Gantz film from 2011 by 2% (7% in admissions) and the first-half sequel to Rurouni Kenshin last year by 2% (8% in admissions).

Part 1 is off to a very successful start, and should earn between ¥3.5-4.5 billion ($30-40 million) on close to 3 million admissions. Part 2, subtitled End of the World, opens on September 19th.

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>Minions may have come in second place, however, it achieved the biggest opening weekend for a imported non-Disney/Pixar animated film, opening 50% higher than the previous record holder, 2007's Shrek the Third.

The spin-off to the popular Despicable Me films sold 449,055 tickets over the weekend on 619 screens, and sold 604,000 tickets over its 3-day opening.

Most films targeting families achieve huge multipliers this time of year, thanks to Summer and Obon Festival, so Minions is practically locked to become the first imported non-Disney/Pixar animated film to gross over ¥3 billion ($25 million+), and could very likely earn north of ¥4 billion (~$35 million), too.

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The Top 3 holdovers from the past three weeks all held very well in the face of two big openers, all down sub-20%, and maintained their usual ranking and close weekend numbers again, too.

>Hero 2 halted its downward spiral since opening, selling 260,179 tickets in its third weekend of release, and exceeded 2 million admissions over the weekend, too. It's still trailing its predecessor and other major TV films, but it's revived it's chance of achieving the ¥5 billion (~$40 million) blockbuster milestone, and could get near 4 million admissions, too. Not bad at all, if it's able to manage these feats.

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>The Boy and the Beast is still holding up very well, selling 236,689 admissions in its fourth weekend of release, and exceeded 2.5 million over the weekend. Mamoru Hosoda's latest hit continues to track over 50% ahead of 2012's Wolf Children, and it has yet to receive its Obon Festival boost, which Wolf Children had reached in its fourth week of release.

A conservative finish for The Boy and the Beast is ¥6 billion (~$50 million) and 4.5 million+ admissions, but it's looking more likely to exceed ¥7 billion (~$60 million) and 5.5 million admissions. Either projection would be enough to earn the Summer 2015 crown, but let's see if Jurassic World, which opens in two days, can challenge it before declaring it the top film of the Summer.

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>Inside Out is also still holding well, though its run has been taking a backseat to The Boy and the Beast each week, and now Minions which just opened 34% higher than it did.

Pixar's latest sold 225,100 tickets in its third weekend, and exceeded 1.5 million admissions after three weeks in release. Despite it not posting blockbuster numbers, it's still performing well, and shouldn't be seen as too disappointing, as it'll still exceed ¥4 billion ($30 million+) and 3 million+ admissions. It's pretty much doing the standard numbers for an original Pixar film.

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>Love Live! The School Idol Movie outgrossed the third Magi Madoka Magica film over the weekend, and became the highest-grossing late-night anime film ever in the process. After eight weeks in release, it's sold over 1.55 million tickets, and has never played on more than 121 screens. Very, very impressive run.
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All the holdovers will be tested this week, as five new wide releases are invading theaters just in time for Obon Festival next week: Jurassic World (Wednesday), Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation (Friday), Boruto: Naruto the Movie (Friday), Japan's Longest Day (Saturday), and Kamen Rider Drive The Movie: Surprise Drive (Saturday).

Next week is the biggest week every year, and many wide releases (including several blockbusters) can thrive without concern for competition... However, this year is very crowded and screens/showtimes is going to be key to receiving the significant Obon boost, and I think Pokemon, and everything else ranked 6th-10th this weekend, will fall out of the Top 10.

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Wow! So much competition!

So which one will be bigger? JW or MI5? Any guesses?

 

For now, I'm gonna say MI5, because MI4 did like 5b yen, while I'm not sure if the Japanese feel as nostalgic as the Americans about JW. But, I also won't be surprised if JW does bigger than MI5. It could go either way.

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For now, I'm gonna say MI5, because MI4 did like 5b yen, while I'm not sure if the Japanese feel as nostalgic as the Americans about JW. But, I also won't be surprised if JW does bigger than MI5. It could go either way.

hows the presales for both??? 

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How well is JW selling right now in Japan?

JW is  20% ahead of Minions at 12:15 and building. It'll perform better in the evening as it skews older.

Minions made $1m yesterday. it will improve on that today with ladies discount day, they'll be taking the kiddies to see it.

Maybe minions does $1.8m and JW beats it by 30% in admission plus a higher average ticket price, 3d, teen and older males. Few kiddies going to see it at their cheap ticket price unless 50 years of Godzilla  in their culture permits 5 year olds to see people eaten by monsters :)

$2.6m is my estimate. will know better at 2pm

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JW is  20% ahead of Minions at 12:15 and building. It'll perform better in the evening as it skews older.

Minions made $1m yesterday. it will improve on that today with ladies discount day, they'll be taking the kiddies to see it.

Maybe minions does $1.8m and JW beats it by 30% in admission plus a higher average ticket price, 3d, teen and older males. Few kiddies going to see it at their cheap ticket price unless 50 years of Godzilla  in their culture permits 5 year olds to see people eaten by monsters :)

$2.6m is my estimate. will know better at 2pm

Lawrence, how have Minions holds been during the week (Mon-Tues) so far?

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Lawrence, how have Minions holds been during the week (Mon-Tues) so far?

Good. Its maintained the same percentage over IO. No sign of slippage that a frontloaded movie would have like AOU. 1.1m Mon, 1m Tues and maybe 1.6-1.8m today. Should be close to 6m for mon-fri, $12m total.

 

looked at last years numbers again

Weekend before Obon has a swell in attendance every year. Its likely to hold better than -25%, 3.3m+, based on its weekday holds and lack of competition. $15m+

 

next midweek's numbers double this coming weekend and holds -5-20% the following weekend. Its still in good shape to land at $25m +/- 2m on the 16th with a $3m weekend at that time

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