JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Cynosure]

Take the upcoming weekend estimate, multiply it by 9 and 12, and you'll get a range.

[Olive]

3.5B -4.5B yen($30-40M total)

[CelestialFairyIX]

Where IO is looking to finish? Up's numbers is possible?

At this point, no. Inside Out would need an insane multiplier of around 20 which is treading into the phenomenon region. Inside Out will most likely be on par with Cars 2 or WALL-E depending on legs and if it follows the norm multiplier of most Pixar flicks which ranges from 9 to 12. Also, IO performed very strongly during Sunday in 43% of the market, something to note.

9x, $27 million

10x, $30 million

11x, $33 million

12x, $36 million

13x, $39 million

14x, $42 million

15x, $45 million

The best multiplier I see Inside Out having is 15. I'm thinking 12x to 13x at the moment.

Edited July 19, 2015 by CelestialFairyIX

[CelestialFairyIX]

Per Corpse:

Usual Locations - Weekend Admissions [43% of Market]

07/18-19

#Admissions (% change), [#theaters/#showings] - Film (Week of Release)

262,497 (-), [149/2,129] - Hero 2 (NEW)

158,199 (-27%), [147/2,064] - The Boy and the Beast (Week 2)

139,770 (-), [151/2,181] - Inside Out (NEW)

136,583 (-), [148/1,526] - Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (NEW)

105,004 (-32%), [148/1,991] - Terminator: Genysis (Week 2)

73,329 (-28%), [149/1,819] - Avengers: Age of Ultron (Week 3)

58,582 (+29%), [77/383] - Love Live! The School Idol Movie (Week 6)

14,929 (-31%), [64/385] - Shaun the Sheep Movie (Week 3)

14,181 (-24%), [146/432] - Mad Max: Fury Road (Week 5)

10,422 (-21%), [84/337] - Anpanman: Mija and the Magic Lamp (Week 3)

7,413 (-40%), [119/540] - Ari no Mama de Itai (Week 2)

6,967 (-56%), [132/301] - Sea Town Diary (Week 6)

Me (LOL):

Inside Out increased on Sunday while Pokemon only increased by about 1,000. Pokemon currently boasts a 4.0/5.0 audience rating and Inside Out has 3.81/5.0. Inside Out has A LOT more showtimes and an advantage theater count wise against Pokemon but for Pokemon to be giving it a run for its money is disappointing.

Edited July 19, 2015 by CelestialFairyIX

[Mockingjay Raphael]

At this point, no. Inside Out would need an insane multiplier of around 20 which is treading into the phenomenon region. Inside Out will most likely be on par with Cars 2 or WALL-E depending on legs and if it follows the norm multiplier of most Pixar flicks which ranges from 9 to 12. Also, IO performed very strongly during Sunday in 43% of the market, something to note.

9x, $27 million

10x, $30 million

11x, $33 million

12x, $36 million

13x, $39 million

14x, $42 million

15x, $45 million

The best multiplier I see Inside Out having is 15. I'm thinking 12x to 13x at the moment.

:/

Thanks

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Weekend Estimates (07/18-19)



01 (--) ¥810,000,000 ($6.5 million), 0, ¥810,000,000 ($6.5 million), Hero 2 (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥476,000,000 ($3.8 million), -28%, ¥1,550,000,000 ($12.4 million), The Boy and the Beast (Toho) Week 2
04 (--) ¥415,000,000 ($3.4 million), 0, ¥415,000,000 ($3.4 million), Inside Out (Disney) NEW
03 (--) ¥380,000,000 ($3.1 million), 0, ¥380,000,000 ($3.1 million), Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (Toho) NEW
05 (02) ¥339,000,000 ($2.7 million), -34%, ¥1,380,000,000 ($11.2 million), Terminator: Genisys (Paramount) Week 2
06 (03) ¥274,000,000 ($2.2 million), -29%, ¥2,180,000,000 ($17.6 million), Avengers: Age of Ultron (Disney) Week 3
07 (04) ¥155,000,000 ($1.3 million), +25%, ¥1,830,000,000 ($14.9 million), Love Live! The School Idol Movie (Shochiku) Week 6
08 (05) ¥52,000,000 ($420,000), -30%, ¥300,000,000 ($2.4 million), Shaun the Sheep Movie (Tohokushinsha) Week 3
09 (06) ¥51,000,000 ($410,000), -25%, ¥1,390,000,000 ($11.3 million), Mad Max: Fury Road (Warner Bros.) Week 5
10 (08) ¥41,000,000 ($330,000), -19%, ¥225,000,000 ($1.9 million), Anpanman: Mija and the Magic Lamp (Toho Video Division) Week 3

Hero 2 looks to have delivered the biggest opening weekend for a live-action film this year, with estimates putting it just above the ¥800 million mark. And with an an estimated weekend of 560,000 admissions, it also sold more tickets than any live-action film this year, too.

This opening would come in a little higher than expectations, with a possible sub-20% drop-off opening weekend from the original hit film from 2007. Tomorrow's a holiday, too, Umi no Hi, and the start of Summer vacation, so it's 3-day total is definitely going above the ¥1 billion mark (possibly even above ¥1.1 billion).

The opening is pretty close to Umizaru: Brave Hearts from three years ago over this weekend, and it finished above ¥7 billion. If Hero 2 has equivalent legs, it won't finish far from its predecessor's ¥8.15 billion total and will likely be the highest-grossing live-action film this year (depending on Jurassic World's performance next month).

>The Boy and the Beast holds strong, while dropping to second place, managing to hold off the latest entries from Disney/Pixar and Pokemon. The second weekend drop is similar to Mamoru Hosoda's last film, Wolf Children, and it went on to earn a multiplier above 11 (and Summar Wars almost hit 13 before that).

Mamoru Hosoda/Studio Chizu are definitely mainstream draws now, nearing Hayao Miyazaki/Studio Ghibli levels, and Beast will probably exceed the ¥7 billion milestone, if not go even higher to make a run at becoming the highest-grossing film of 2015.

>Inside Out has to settle for third place, it appears, and while the debut is well-below films like Big Hero 6, Frozen, and Monsters University, those comparisons are kind of unfair for many reasons.

Pixar's latest is running almost in-line with Pixar's original films like Wall-E and Ratatouille, which outside of Monsters Inc. and Finding Nemo, most of Pixar's original films didn't blockbuster-status. And taking into account being hindered by a Mamaru Hosoda film again like in 2012, the debut for Inside Out looks satisfactory to me and it shouldn't have an issue reaching ¥4 billion.

>Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages mirrored last year's film on Saturday, but fell a bit behind on Sunday and for the overall weekend at the usual locations. I think it'll come in above Inside Out's weekend admissions, but the low avg. ticket price will make it really difficult to come ahead in gross.

Unless it played better than last year's film at Aeon Cinemas, its best chain that's unaccounted for, the new film may have decreased once again, but it's hard to say right now. If it decreased, it should only be by 5% or so, but this is still a sign the film franchise continues to struggle.

[Cynosure]

So final gross between ¥3.75 billion ($30.6 million) and ¥5 billion ($40.8 million), unless it surprises.

Edited July 19, 2015 by Cynosure

[CelestialFairyIX]

So final gross between ¥3.75 billion ($30.6 million) and ¥5 billion ($40.8 million), unless it surprises.

I'm crossing my fingers it surprises once the WOM kicks in and competition from The Boy and the Beast falters a little. 

[Fake]

I have a feeling IO is gonna be veeery leggy. I think it will actually increase next weekend, and then will have small weekly drops thereafter. 6b+ yen could happen.

[Fake]

I have a feeling IO is gonna be veeery leggy. I think it will actually increase next weekend, and then will have small weekly drops thereafter. 6b+ yen could happen.

[Cynosure]

BO Global Report :

 

Inside Out opened on top in Spain with $3 million, but at a disappointing #4 in Japan with $3.3 million behind two local animations and a local live-action film.

[Mojoguy]

That number for IO is good.

 

IO would be in second place if it wasn't for Boy and the Beast. Expectations were too high for IO just because it was Pixar.

[fmpro]

What number is AoU heading at with that drop?

Good drop after last weekend shitty one

[Quigley]

IO will increase next weekend and AoU will make it to $1.4B.

[Infernus]

That number for IO is good.

 

IO would be in second place if it wasn't for Boy and the Beast. Expectations were too high for IO just because it was Pixar.

 

Well my expectations were moreso because of it being a really good animated movie which really do well here.

[Asyulus]

Medicore for IO.

[Mojoguy]

Corpse

 

I'm pretty sure actuals won't be released until tomorrow, so here are the Weekend Estimates from yesterday and the new 3-day Weekend Estimates over the long holiday weekend.

Weekend Estimates (07/18-19)
01 (--) ¥810,000,000 ($6.5 million), 0, ¥810,000,000 ($6.5 million), Hero 2 (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥476,000,000 ($3.8 million), -28%, ¥1,560,000,000 ($12.5 million), The Boy and the Beast (Toho) Week 2
03 (--) ¥415,000,000 ($3.4 million), 0, ¥415,000,000 ($3.4 million), Inside Out (Disney) NEW
04 (--) ¥380,000,000 ($3.1 million), 0, ¥380,000,000 ($3.1 million), Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (Toho) NEW
05 (02) ¥339,000,000 ($2.7 million), -34%, ¥1,380,000,000 ($11.2 million), Terminator: Genisys (Paramount) Week 2
06 (03) ¥274,000,000 ($2.2 million), -29%, ¥2,180,000,000 ($17.6 million), Avengers: Age of Ultron (Disney) Week 3
07 (04) ¥155,000,000 ($1.3 million), +25%, ¥1,830,000,000 ($14.9 million), Love Live! The School Idol Movie (Shochiku) Week 6
08 (05) ¥52,000,000 ($420,000), -30%, ¥300,000,000 ($2.4 million), Shaun the Sheep Movie (Tohokushinsha) Week 3
09 (06) ¥51,000,000 ($410,000), -25%, ¥1,390,000,000 ($11.3 million), Mad Max: Fury Road (Warner Bros.) Week 5
10 (08) ¥41,000,000 ($330,000), -19%, ¥225,000,000 ($1.9 million), Anpanman: Mija and the Magic Lamp (Toho Video Division) Week 3



3-Day Holiday Weekend Estimates (07/18-20)
01 (--) ¥1,140,000,000 ($9.2 million), 0, ¥1,140,000,000 ($9.2 million), Hero 2 (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥736,000,000 ($6.0 million), +10%, ¥1,820,000,000 ($14.8 million), The Boy and the Beast (Toho) Week 2
03 (--) ¥650,000,000 ($5.2 million), 0, ¥650,000,000 ($5.2 million), Inside Out (Disney) NEW
04 (--) ¥530,000,000 ($4.3 million), 0, ¥530,000,000 ($4.3 million), Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages (Toho) NEW
05 (02) ¥478,000,000 ($3.8 million), -07%, ¥1,520,000,000 ($12.4 million), Terminator: Genisys (Paramount) Week 2
06 (03) ¥384,000,000 ($3.1 million), -01%, ¥2,290,000,000 ($18.6 million), Avengers: Age of Ultron (Disney) Week 3
07 (04) ¥199,000,000 ($1.6 million), +61%, ¥1,880,000,000 ($15.2 million), Love Live! The School Idol Movie (Shochiku) Week 6
08 (05) ¥80,000,000 ($645,000), +08%, ¥330,000,000 ($2.6 million), Shaun the Sheep Movie (Tohokushinsha) Week 3
09 (06) ¥68,000,000 ($550,000), -01%, ¥1,410,000,000 ($11.5 million), Mad Max: Fury Road (Warner Bros.) Week 5
10 (08) ¥59,000,000 ($475,000), +14%, ¥240,000,000 ($2.1 million), Anpanman: Mija and the Magic Lamp (Toho Video Division) Week 3

>Hero 2 has sold around 800,000 tickets over the long-weekend based on estimates, which puts it well above the ¥1 billion milestone if accurate.

Its opening is pretty close to 2012's Umizaru: Brave Hearts, which finished with ¥7.33 billion. I'm not sure if its legs will be quite as good, but achieving the ¥7 billion (~$60 million) milestone and 5 million admissions both look reasonable at the moment unless actuals come in significantly lower. It's going to end up a lot closer to the original film's ¥8.15 billion than many were expecting.

And even if actuals do come in lower, Hero 2 is very likely to overtake Cinderella as the year's highest-grossing live-action film.

>The Boy and the Beast is holding very well so far early in its run, and actually managed to hold off the weekend's other big debuts, just falling to second place.

Mamaru Hosoda's latest is still likely on track to reach the ¥7 billion (~$60 million) milestone, which will put it in a very close race with Hero 2 for Summer 2015's biggest film (Jurassic World should be the only remaining upcoming contender). I think The Boy and the Beast still has a slight chance at topping Big Hero 6 to become the year's biggest film, but it'll need a very, very good Obon Week next month.

>Inside Out's third place debut may appear disappointing, but it's honestly not. So ignore any reports calling it a "disappointment". It's very unfair to expect Toy Story 3 or Monsters University numbers here. It's less kid-friendly, and takes on a more dramatic story that kids/families usually aren't looking for in a Summer film.

And the debut estimate itself is still good, too. It's roughly on par with Ratatouille and Wall-E, and not far behind Up, either. Pixar's latest will probably exceed ¥4 billion (~$30 million), and might be able to make a run at ¥5 billion (~$40 million).

>Pokemon XY: Hoopa and the Clash of Ages doesn't appear to have increased over last year's film's disappointing debut, or if it did, it's very minimal, and a fourth place debut would tie for the second lowest debut ranking since 2002's film which is still the lowest-grossing film in the franchise with ¥2.67 billion.

I want to report good news here, but there isn't any unless estimates are way off. It'll be very difficult to bring the series back over the ¥3 billion mark with these numbers. It honestly appears that many kids have moved on from the series in favor of Yokai Watch, which has taken over Japan over the past two years.

I'm not going to type up details about the other films, but based on these estimates, I'll share some rough projected final grosses for a few:

¥3.2-3.4 billion (~$26-28 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron
¥2.9-3.1 billion (~$24-26 million) - Terminator: Genysis
¥2.1-2.2 billion (~$17-18 million) - Love Live! The School Idol Movie
¥1.6-1.7 billion (~$13-14 million) - Mad Max: Fury Road

[CalifoBoy]

So does "Age of Ultron" still has a slightly chance of smashing "Deathly Hallows Part 2"'s  960.5$ million total at the foreign box office?!

[Mojoguy]

What number is AoU heading at with that drop?

Good drop after last weekend shitty one

Japan only cares about Spider-Man and Iron Man.

[Mojoguy]

Medicore for IO.

Not really.