JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Foul01]

7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Well, it's hard to say exactly how it's going to finally do in Japan.

 

Assuming that it's at $933 million at the moment, I think it might work like this.

 

$15 million more from USA+CAN

$10 million more from rest of the world-Japan.

$50 million more from Japan.

 

$1.008 billion worldwide.

 

It's already made around $18 million in Japan, which would mean that I'm anticipating a final Japan total around $68 million. I think it's possible.

[Based of Box Office Mojo's data]

 

I would say around $15 million more from the US
OS-Japan i am a little more pessimistic, maybe $5~$7 million more

that puts Zootopia at $934 million + $15 million + OS-Japan $5 million at $954 million

Japan will need to do $46 million more... the current data of Foreign Gross includes only $13.5 million from Japan.
Which means Japan will need a final run of ($46 million + $13.5 million) = $59.5 million

As of today, Japan has made around $20 million... it's definitely possible since it is still at number 1 now.

[Mrstickball]

Zootopia will earn quite a bit more than $15m from US+CAN..

 

Last weeks' total (Fri-Thurs) was $8.7m with a sub-20% WOW drop. Its looking at a 30% drop this week, down to about $6.1m. Assuming 30% drops from here on out, it would get at least $20m more. If it holds slightly better (25% drops on average), you're looking at $25m. 

 

Certainly up to Japan to break the $1b mark, but I think that it only needs about $60m LTD in Japan to hit the billion mark... But given its great legs so far, may add some padding to this great run.

[edroger3]

 

 

"Done For 1B" is calculated assuming Zoo needs 60M$ in Japan

Edited May 4, 2016 by edroger3

[LMAbacus]

1 hour ago, Mrstickball said:

Zootopia will earn quite a bit more than $15m from US+CAN..

 

Last weeks' total (Fri-Thurs) was $8.7m with a sub-20% WOW drop. Its looking at a 30% drop this week, down to about $6.1m. Assuming 30% drops from here on out, it would get at least $20m more. If it holds slightly better (25% drops on average), you're looking at $25m.

 

i don't think you can just assume that. A lot of its strong holds in its earlier weeks were caused by its staying power on the weekdays during spring break, and it doesn't have that anymore. On the weekends, it's going strong due to its great theater count holds, but that won't last forever.

 

 

[Melvin Frohike]

14 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

I know WOM carried it after it opened, but why did Frozen have such a high opening weekend? Better marketing? High interest in the subject matter? Love of magical girls?

 

It may well have been all of the above.  WOM aside (that came later, of course), Frozen enjoyed a lot more hype from the start, including from various media outlets.  People in Japan seemed to immediately see something compelling about it, even at the most superficial level at first.  Its opening weekend was short of enormous, so WOM was really what carried it the most, but still it did open very well, especially for a WDAS movie.

 

For comparison, here are Zootopia's Japan teaser and trailer:

 

And here are Frozen's:

 

In my opinion, Frozen was marketed better in Japan than Zootopia, and it was marketed a lot better in Japan than it (Frozen) was marketed in NA, as well.  Oddly, it almost seems as though Frozen were a Japanese movie in these trailers, at least to me.   Perhaps it always inherently had greater potential for this market--I don't know for sure, but that's what I think.  So I wasn't surprised when Zootopia didn't wow us with its opening weekend, although I've always felt that once people actually saw the movie, then it would catch on, and we're already seeing signs of that.

 

 

14 hours ago, cannastop said:

Well, doing half, or even 40% of Frozen's total would easily qualify as a smash hit in Japan.

 

Very easily--in fact, a movie grossing 40% of that is generally considered a mega-blockbuster that doesn't come along every year, and even 25% would easily qualify as a smash hit.

 

 

14 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Japanese song versions came out weeks in advance and we're big hits. The hype was big before it opened

 

Very true, although Frozen somehow opened very well in NA, too (almost as well as Zootopia), despite a lack of visible hype and an awful, frankly stupid-looking marketing campaign--even the main poster was stupid (while other countries like Japan, Spain, France, etc. got beautiful, classy posters).  I think that many people just looked at it and felt they had to see it, and then WOM and the cultural phenomenon took over from there (actually started a couple of weeks into its NA run, unlike in Japan where it was there almost from the beginning).

 

 

14 hours ago, cannastop said:

I think it will do a bit more. Zootopia's track record speaks for itself.

 

I think it can and will, too, but as for track records, they don't always count in every market, especially Japan.  More than a few major global blockbusters have underperformed or outright flopped in Japan, and this includes multiple movies from WDAS and for that matter Pixar.

 

 

10 hours ago, Foul01 said:

This might be the first time Zootopia has managed to out-pace Conan in the evening.

 

Actually, I wasn't watching the whole time, but on Tuesday I saw Conan start to rapidly close the gap in the afternoon, but then when I checked late in the evening Zootopia had actually pulled farther ahead than before, so it was already outpacing Conan in the evening on that day.

 

 

4 hours ago, GOXOG said:

with this kind of performance,can it get to 1B ww or need more break out

 

With a normal-ish run based on what we've seen and are seeing, it can, but it will likely be close, so it still may not.  However, it's still too early to tell just how strong this movie's legs can become, and given what other recent WDAS movies have done in this respect, in addition to what Zootopia has been doing in some markets, I wouldn't put a hard cap on what it could potentially gross.  Well, it almost certainly won't gross more than $139M (with Frozen's record multiplier and today's exchange rate), but beneath that, who knows?  In terms of projections, as opposed to prognostications, it looks like it could reach $60M, which is actually a bold statement, generally speaking.  But it could do more....

 

 

2 hours ago, Mrstickball said:

Zootopia will earn quite a bit more than $15m from US+CAN..

 

It looks that way right now, but Zootopia will likely be losing a fair number of theaters in the near future, so I don't know.  I ran a bunch of different scenarios, and always seem to come out with a figure from $19M to the low $20Ms.  And with its legs in NA and that early video release, it will probably not have much of an extended run in second-run/dollar theaters (Frozen didn't for these reasons).

 

 

Quote

Last weeks' total (Fri-Thurs) was $8.7m with a sub-20% WOW drop. Its looking at a 30% drop this week, down to about $6.1m. Assuming 30% drops from here on out, it would get at least $20m more. If it holds slightly better (25% drops on average), you're looking at $25m.

 

Yeah, it could happen, but I wouldn't count on it at this point.

 

 

Quote

Certainly up to Japan to break the $1b mark, but I think that it only needs about $60m LTD in Japan to hit the billion mark... But given its great legs so far, may add some padding to this great run.

 

Right, $60M from Japan would almost certainly do it, and for all we know it could be more.  Even if it falls short of $60M, though, I still think that $1B is more likely than not.  In fact, if I had any balls to speak of, I'd already call it locked, but I'm a spineless, limp-dicked coward when it comes to this stuff, so I won't.

Edited May 4, 2016 by Melvin Frohike

[cannastop]

19 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

 

i don't think you can just assume that. A lot of its strong holds in its earlier weeks were caused by its staying power on the weekdays during spring break, and it doesn't have that anymore. On the weekends, it's going strong due to its great theater count holds, but that won't last forever.

 

 

It hasn't been spring break for a month now, you know.

[LMAbacus]

I think comparing Zootopia's Japanese box office run to Frozen's is like comparing every action movie's box office run to Avatar's - it's simply not a fair point of comparison and you can't glean anything from weekly or daily trends. Cinderella seems a much better movie for comparison, considering that it opened at almost the exact same time of the year as Zootopia and that it had a very similar total gross and multiplier as Zootopia should have (47.2 million and 10x).

[LMAbacus]

7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It hasn't been spring break for a month now, you know.

 

Yes, and three of its last four weekly drops have been over 30% compared to its first three being under. I don't know what happened during last week's weekdays but it seems to be going back to the normal 81% drops that family movies get.

Edited May 4, 2016 by LMAbacus

[Agafin]

2 hours ago, Foul01 said:

OS-Japan i am a little more pessimistic, maybe $5~$7 million more

 

It grossed almost $5 million from OS-Japan last weekend. I can't see it doing only $5 more million especially when it's already faced its two biggest threats yet (Civil War and Jungle Book). Alice is still more than three weeks away and that's it's next big obstacle.

 

Also, there's still Turkey (every bit of help counts).

Edited May 4, 2016 by Agafin

[edroger3]

14 hours ago, LMAbacus said:

 

I know WOM carried it after it opened, but why did Frozen have such a high opening weekend? Better marketing? High interest in the subject matter? Love of magical girls?

Frozen got 2 Oscar and 1B$ WW just few days before the japanese opening and the wordlwide crazyness for the soundtrack was at maximum. Plus, in those days Disney finally have realized that this movie was the biggest winning bet in past twenty years, a "merchandise monster" that could justify strong p&a investments. 

[Agafin]

Just now, LMAbacus said:

 

Yes, and three of its last four weekly drops have been over 30% compared to its first three being under. I don't know what happened during last week's weekdays but it seems to be going back to the normal 81% drops that family movies get.

 

What? It's just had two consecutive sub 20% drops these past two weekends, what are you talking about?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=disney2016.htm

It has actually being holding better than when it opened except for the huge drop during JB's OW.

 

80% Sun-Mon drop is perfectly normal for a a family flick in May (check the JB's drop for example, or any other other similar movie).

Edited May 4, 2016 by Agafin

[cannastop]

BTW, Zootopia now has a 4.41/5 average on Yahoo movies with 1,188 votes. It's held steady even as more people see it.

[Jason]

2 hours ago, Mrstickball said:

Zootopia will earn quite a bit more than $15m from US+CAN..

 

Last weeks' total (Fri-Thurs) was $8.7m with a sub-20% WOW drop. Its looking at a 30% drop this week, down to about $6.1m. Assuming 30% drops from here on out, it would get at least $20m more.

 

If you use last week's total and assume 30% drops from then on out, you arrive at $20.3M remaining. However, $5M of that remaining total was already included in the totals used by cannastop and Foul01, leaving $15M.

 

Your statements are actually in agreement regarding the final domestic total of Zootopia ($339M).

Edited May 4, 2016 by Jason

[LMAbacus]

1 hour ago, Agafin said:

 

What? It's just had two consecutive sub 20% drops these past two weekends, what are you talking about?

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=disney2016.htm

It has actually being holding better than when it opened except for the huge drop during JB's OW.

 

80% Sun-Mon drop is perfectly normal for a a family flick in May (check the JB's drop for example, or any other other similar movie).

 

I said weekly drops, not weekend. It had a great weekly hold last week, and another good one this week, but I don't know about future weeks.

 

Weekly drops have two components, the weekday drops and the weekend drops. The weekday drops were miniscule during spring break, but that's over now, and weekdays are only accounting for 18% to 24% of the weekly gross instead of over 30% back then. The weekend drops have been great when there isn't a blockbuster opening, but there are going to be many of those in the coming weeks, and the question is when that 50% drop will occur. If it occurs this weekend then any number of strong holds afterwards will be against a lower baseline; consecutive drops of 30%, 30%, 50% is a lot different than 50%, 30%, 30%.

Edited May 4, 2016 by LMAbacus

[Foul01]

12 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

 

I said weekly drops, not weekend. It had a great weekly hold last week, and another good one this week, but I don't know about future weeks.

 

Weekly drops have two components, the weekday drops and the weekend drops. The weekday drops were miniscule during spring break, but that's over now, and weekdays are only accounting for 18% to 24% of the weekly gross instead of over 30% back then. The weekend drops have been great when there isn't a blockbuster opening, but there are going to be many of those in the coming weeks, and the question is when that 50% drop will occur. If it occurs this weekend then any number of strong holds afterwards will be against a lower baseline; consecutive drops of 30%, 30%, 50% is a lot different than 50%, 30%, 30%.

 

they actually are the same thing:
(1-50%)*(1-30%)*(1-30%) = 0.245
(1-30%)*(1-30%)*(1-50%) = 0.245

so it doesnt really matter which week will the greater drop be

[bambam]

Hey, new to the forum. Glad to see I'm nowhere near the only who follows this stuff. I've been doing some comparisons of Zootopia and Inside Out's domestic runs (weekly numbers) and Zootopia, since the beginning of it's 3rd week, has been outgrossing IO, on average, about 42%. If you take just the last three weeks (6-8) that number actually goes up to about 57%. This week alone (which has only reported 4 days) it's 62% ahead of IO's corresponding week 9. From the beginning of its 9th week, IO still earned another ~19M. If Zootopia holds a 42% edge (the more conservative percentage), that would mean it would add another 27M to its end of week 8 total.

 

I think it will actually hold a higher than 42% edge since, at the same point in time, IO's run was in back to school territory, whereas Zootopia is heading into summer.

Edited May 4, 2016 by bambam

[Jason]

40 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

 

If it occurs this weekend then any number of strong holds afterwards will be against a lower baseline; consecutive drops of 30%, 30%, 50% is a lot different than 50%, 30%, 30%.

 

15 minutes ago, Foul01 said:

 

they actually are the same thing:
(1-50%)*(1-30%)*(1-30%) = 0.245
(1-30%)*(1-30%)*(1-50%) = 0.245

so it doesnt really matter which week will the greater drop be

 

The total on the third week will be the same, but the cumulative total will not be. Using this example:

 

Case 1 cumulative: 1(0.5) + 1(0.5)(0.7) + 1(0.5)(0.7)(0.7) = 1.095

Case 2 cumulative: 1(0.7) + 1(0.7)(0.7) + 1(0.7)(0.7)(0.5) = 1.435

 

So yes, it does matter when the greater drop occurs, the sooner it occurs, the lower the cumulative total will be.

Edited May 4, 2016 by Jason

[Quigley]

1 hour ago, bambam said:

Hey, new to the forum. Glad to see I'm nowhere near the only who follows this stuff. I've been doing some comparisons of Zootopia and Inside Out's domestic runs (weekly numbers) and Zootopia, since the beginning of it's 3rd week, has been outgrossing IO, on average, about 42%. If you take just the last three weeks (6-8) that number actually goes up to about 57%. This week alone (which has only reported 4 days) it's 62% ahead of IO's corresponding week 9. From the beginning of its 9th week, IO still earned another ~19M. If Zootopia holds a 42% edge (the more conservative percentage), that would mean it would add another 27M to its end of week 8 total.

 

I think it will actually hold a higher than 42% edge since, at the same point in time, IO's run was in back to school territory, whereas Zootopia is heading into summer.

 

Nice to see more people join us. Every person brings a new perspective. I guess ur scenario could theoretically happen but with Cap 3, Angry Birds, Alice 2 and Apocalypse being released in the next 4 weeks, it should have larger drops due to screen/theater loss and competition.

Edited May 4, 2016 by Quigley

[bambam]

35 minutes ago, Quigley said:

 

Nice to see more people join us. Every person brings a new perspective. I guess ur scenario could theoretically happen but with Cap 3, Angry Birds, Alice 2 and Apocalypse being released in the next 4 weeks, it should have larger drops due to screen/theater loss and competition.

True, but I'd argue that Minions affected IO more than any of the films you mentioned are going to affect Zootopia. And again, hopefully the competition is offset by the fact that Zootopia is heading into summer. Even with fewer screens I think they'll be more packed than IO during back to school season.

[Quigley]

4 minutes ago, bambam said:

True, but I'd argue that Minions affected IO more than any of the films you mentioned are going to affect Zootopia. And again, hopefully the competition is offset by the fact that Zootopia is heading into summer. Even with fewer screens I think they'll be more packed than IO during back to school season.

 

Summer weekdays only start in mid-June. We'll be seeing 70-80% drops on weekdays compared to Sunday (excluding holiday Mondays)