Monday (7/30/12) Numbers TDKR $8,160,046

[#ED]

My position is that without the shooting TDKR would have been more frontloaded. People held off on going IMO more so than decided to not go at all.The only way a movie gets to 533M like TDK or 600M like TA is repeat viewings... a lot of them. My assumption from before day 1 was that TDKR would not get as many repeat viewers as TDK, hence it would by nature be more frontloaded. Basically this is the theory that Nolan's trilogy shifted to more of the fanboy model, like a hybrid version of Potter mixed with standard SH films. I don't think a 3x multi was ever in the cards.If I'm right, then the first 10 or so days will have been slightly muted, but the movie's overall loss in the long haul would not have been impacted that much.

So when The Avengers 2 comes out, it will also be frontloaded. Perhaps a 215M OW record. So total gross will be $500-$550 instead of 616M?

[Fake]

I am pretty sure the OW was hurt by 15-20M. But I don't think the business post-OW would suffer any further deflation.In fact, my theory is that it might even start making back some of the money lost during OW. Let's face it, people who were interested enough to see it on OW, but didn't see it because of shooting, will more likey than not catch it on a later date.

[The Futurist]

Baumer is in fetal position screaming :"TDKR received a lukewarm reception on all quadrants and you know it !!!"

[redfirebird2008]

I am pretty sure the OW was hurt by 15-20M. But I don't think the business post-OW would suffer any further deflation.In fact, my theory is that it might even start making back some of the money lost during OW. Let's face it, people who were interested enough to see it on OW, but didn't see it because of shooting, will more likey than not catch it on a later date.

Not necessarily. If they're casual members of the audience, quite a few of them will just rent it.

[druv10]

There's no way in the world this would have hit 500, even in a perfect scenario. It's too divisive. Many love it and many don't and then you have people like me that like it but not really. For this to have hit 500 you would have needed outstanding WOM and I think it was heading for a 2.5-2.6 multiplier. 480 tops.

500M could have happened without the shooting. I think it would be looking at 485-490M without shooting so another 10M wouldn't have been impossible.

[fmpro]

So when The Avengers 2 comes out, it will also be frontloaded. Perhaps a 215M OW record. So total gross will be $500-$550 instead of 616M?

Its still all up in the air...I can see everything from 180-230 mill OW right now

[Caboose]

I tend to back up my arguments with logic and data. All you can do is throw insults at me. That's the difference between me and fanboys here.

[doublejack]

So when The Avengers 2 comes out, it will also be frontloaded. Perhaps a 215M OW record. So total gross will be $500-$550 instead of 616M?

Well this is still way down the road, but in general yes that is the direction I'm leaning. TA2 has a good shot at beating the OW record just because of what TA did. It is also unlikely to be as well received, so will be more frontloaded. How much depends on how big the quality drop is from TA.

Not necessarily. If they're casual members of the audience, quite a few of them will just rent it.

Possible, but I think Fake's point is that casual members of the audience generally aren't the type to go on OW. They wait a few weeks for the lines to go down and the theater to be less crowded. OW crowds are mostly fellow cinephiles.

[Punishment]

Monday Actuals: boxoffice.com1 The Dark Knight Rises $8,160,046 -58% 4,404 0 $1,853 $295,272,856 2 Warner Bros.2 Ice Age: Continental Drift $1,843,850 -54% 3,869 -17 $477 $116,743,710 3 Fox3 The Watch $1,588,869 -55% 3,168 -- $502 $14,339,166 1 Fox4 Step Up Revolution $1,473,125 -49% 2,567 -- $574 $13,204,833 1 Lionsgate / Summit5 Ted (2012) $1,016,925 -53% 3,129 -85 $325 $194,635,675 5 Universal6 The Amazing Spider-Man $1,001,951 -51% 3,160 -593 $317 $242,955,672 4 Sony / Columbia7 Brave $674,352 -50% 2,551 -348 $264 $218,004,024 6 Disney8 Magic Mike $418,070 -37% 2,075 -531 $201 $108,044,053 5 Warner Bros.9 Savages $268,435 -56% 1,414 -922 $190 $44,252,220 4 Universal

Edited July 31, 2012 by Punishment

[Letsuseournoggin]

Well this is still way down the road, but in general yes that is the direction I'm leaning. TA2 has a good shot at beating the OW record just because of what TA did. It is also unlikely to be as well received, so will be more frontloaded. How much depends on how big the quality drop is from TA.Possible, but I think Fake's point is that casual members of the audience generally aren't the type to go on OW. They wait a few weeks for the lines to go down and the theater to be less crowded. OW crowds are mostly fellow cinephiles.

But for a movie that opens to 160 million, surely that's not all fanboy driven. There are millions upon millions who go just because it's the new big blockbuster/Batman movie. I'm sure there are several tens of thousands in that number that said "eff it. I'll just catch this one at home."

[redfirebird2008]

Possible, but I think Fake's point is that casual members of the audience generally aren't the type to go on OW. They wait a few weeks for the lines to go down and the theater to be less crowded. OW crowds are mostly fellow cinephiles.

No way man. To make the kind of admissions that SM3, TDK, Avengers, and presumably TDKR would have without the shooting requires a ton of casual audience members including a lot of teenagers, soccer moms, and small kids. This is the audience that would be most affected by hysterical media coverage of the shooting and in fact by the shooting itself (with little kids getting shot).

[MagnetMan]

I will admit, he is pretty good at sounding very objective. His writing style comes across as very fact based. If you didn't know anything about this BO stuff, he'd fool you rather easily. I remember the first time I read his stuff on TA, I squinted my eyebrows and had to re-read it before finally disagreeing. Now, it's pretty easy to spot.

Same thing here. Took me a while until I realized that for him a routine drop on a film he dislikes is a "shockingly bad drop." While a routine drop on a film he likes is a "good hold."

[druv10]

Forever, because it's the right tune.

Your personal bias is leading you to believe that WOM is mixed. WOM for TDKR's not on par with TDK or TA but it's far from luke warm or mixed. I think it's generally good to very good.

[druv10]

Monday Actuals: boxoffice.com1 Ice Age: Continental Drift $1,843,850 -54% 3,869 -17 $477 $116,743,710 3 Fox2 The Watch $1,588,869 -55% 3,168 -- $502 $14,339,166 1 Fox3 Ted (2012) $1,016,925 -53% 3,129 -85 $325 $194,635,675 5 Universal4 Brave $674,352 -50% 2,551 -348 $264 $218,004,024 6 Disney5 Savages $268,435 -56% 1,414 -922 $190 $44,252,220 4 Universal

You're off-topic. Edited July 31, 2012 by druv10

[doublejack]

But for a movie that opens to 160 million, surely that's not all fanboy driven. There are millions upon millions who go just because it's the new big blockbuster/Batman movie. I'm sure there are several tens of thousands in that number that said "eff it. I'll just catch this one at home."

No way man. To make the kind of admissions that SM3, TDK, Avengers, and presumably TDKR would have without the shooting requires a ton of casual audience members including a lot of teenagers, soccer moms, and small kids. This is the audience that would be most affected by hysterical media coverage of the shooting and in fact by the shooting itself (with little kids getting shot).

I can respond to both of these with the same example - DH2. Potter fans turned out by the millions and look what kind of OW they racked up. Yes, SM3 was another one. Casual fans either have no interest or read the bad reviews (in order of my examples), which means a very large OW doesn't always equal good legs.I am not saying TDKR would have been *that* frontloaded (as SM3) or *that* fan driven (as DH2), but it is more so in both categories than TDK was. Nolan has a huge fanbase, folks. He has earned it because every movie the man makes is awesome... but the effect at the box office is frontloaded-ness.TA had much more walk-up business. Edited July 31, 2012 by doublejack

[druv10]

Damn, 25 "likes" in about 15 posts today. Stop liking my posts.

Edited July 31, 2012 by druv10

[#ED]

What's TDKR actual for Monday?

[#ED]

I can respond to both of these with the same example - DH2. Potter fans turned out by the millions and look what kind of OW they racked up. Yes, SM3 was another one. Casual fans either have no interest or read the bad reviews (in order of my examples), which means a very large OW doesn't always equal good legs.I am not saying TDKR would have been *that* frontloaded (as SM3) or *that* fan driven (as DH2), but it is more so in both categories than TDK was. Nolan has a huge fanbase, folks. He has earned it because every movie the man makes is awesome... but the effect at the box office is frontloaded-ness.TA had much more walk-up business.

The box office walk up business has declined in the last 2 weeks.

[Punishment]

1 The Dark Knight Rises $8,160,046 -58% 4,404 0 $1,853 $295,272,856 2 Warner Bros.

[redfirebird2008]

I can respond to both of these with the same example - DH2. Potter fans turned out by the millions and look what kind of OW they racked up. Yes, SM3 was another one. Casual fans either have no interest or read the bad reviews (in order of my examples), which means a very large OW doesn't always equal good legs.I am not saying TDKR would have been *that* frontloaded (as SM3) or *that* fan driven (as DH2), but it is more so in both categories than TDK was. Nolan has a huge fanbase, folks. He has earned it because every movie the man makes is awesome... but the effect at the box office is frontloaded-ness.TA had much more walk-up business.

Even Potter's opening wasn't just fans. It managed to pull off way more general audience walk-up demand than any of the previous Potter openings. TA had much more walk-up business without a mass shooting where a bunch of little kids were in the theater. I saw TA on opening night and there were a ton of little kids. This is the audience most affected by the shooting because of paranoid parents not agreeing to take their kids to the movies. Avengers would have been hurt badly if the same event happened during its midnight opening. Given that its audience has more kids than a dark Batman movie to begin with, it might have been hurt even more than TDKR. Edited July 31, 2012 by redfirebird2008