baumer Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 What are you talking about with that first sentence? Under the worst case scenario possible for its ow, it's going to hit $450m, but under normal conditions without a massacre it wouldn't hit $500m no chance in the world??? That makes no sense...again, just take $185m ow, use the same drops it's having (which are slightly worse because of shootings or as you think, bad wom), and it's hitting $500m.Sure it makes sense, you are just stuck in one mode FTF. You think that this is going to follow the same path as TDK and that simply isn't true. TDKR is already showing signs of erosion and that has nothing to do with the shooting now. It's weekdays are weaker than TDK and it's weekend has been much weaker. This weekend it's in for another sizable drop. There is just no way this film was going to come close the epic perfect story that TDK took advantage of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punishment Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) Edited July 31, 2012 by Punishment 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) http://www.rottentom...k_knight_rises/http://www.metacriti...rk-knight-risesSOME is the correct term.I'm tired of explaining this over and over again. CRITICS DO NOT PAY FOR A FILM. A CRITICS OPINION IS NOT THE SAME AS THE GENERAL PUBLIC. Edited July 31, 2012 by The Amazing baumerman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) Damn it Disney. Looks like they have stopped giving daily numbers for TA. How hard is it give daily numbers for your biggest movie ever? We'll have to wait for weekly updates now. :rant: Edited July 31, 2012 by druv10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrylos 7 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 So when The Avengers 2 comes out, it will also be frontloaded. Perhaps a 215M OW record. So total gross will be $500-$550 instead of 616M?If they nail Thanos the sky is the limit . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punishment Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Damn it Disney. Looks like they have stopped giving daily numbers for TA. How hard is it give daily numbers for your biggest movie ever? We'll have to wait for weekly updates now. :rant: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Your personal bias is leading you to believe that WOM is mixed. WOM for TDKR's not on par with TDK or TA but it's far from luke warm or mixed. I think it's generally good to very good.But if it is good, which I agree with, that is not going to get it to a 3 mutliplier and it certainly won't get it past 500. Just because something is good, doesn't mean people are going to run out and see it multiple times.Here's an example. The Road with Aragorn, is one of the bleakest, most depressing, saddest, unhappy films I have ever seen. But it was beautifully shot, masterfully acted and the story was incredible, unlike many films I have seen. The WOM on this film was fantastic.But who in their right mind would want to sit through that twice? Good or not, it's not a film that will get a lot of repeat business. Same with TDKR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doublejack Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) Even Potter's opening wasn't just fans. It managed to pull off way more general audience walk-up demand than any of the previous Potter openings. TA had much more walk-up business without a mass shooting where a bunch of little kids were in the theater. I saw TA on opening night and there were a ton of little kids. This is the audience most affected by the shooting because of paranoid parents not agreeing to take their kids to the movies. Avengers would have been hurt badly if the same event happened during its midnight opening. Given that its audience has more kids than a dark Batman movie to begin with, it might have been hurt even more than TDKR. I agree with this. I'm not going to pass judgement on parents that brought their kids to see TDKR, but my 10 year old has not and will not be seeing the movie in theaters. It is not a children's movie. Despite both films being PG-13, TA and TDKR have a big difference in audience composition. A shooting during a midnight showing of TA would have had a far bigger impact IMO. That's why I think TDKR is more frontloaded / fan driven, and why I think the effects of the shooting weren't catastrophic at all. As I said TDKR is a hybrid, but it has a Potter-esque fanboy component that is much bigger than what was behind TA. Even without the shooting, walk-ups were going to be less for TDKR. TA is in itself a hybrid, it is a very family friendly superhero movie, so almost like Spiderman meets Shrek. That's why it has the second best first-run of all time, in dollar terms. Edited July 31, 2012 by doublejack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) When the summer movie seasons go by and posters here are still going back and forth about what TDKR 'would' have done, this place won't be much fun anymore.There's no argument against the shootings hitting the box office. But we'll never know how much the tragedy hit the box office so what's the point of debating it? It's still going to make an insane amount of money. Edited July 31, 2012 by Gopher 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 But if it is good, which I agree with, that is not going to get it to a 3 mutliplier and it certainly won't get it past 500. Just because something is good, doesn't mean people are going to run out and see it multiple times.Here's an example. The Road with Aragorn, is one of the bleakest, most depressing, saddest, unhappy films I have ever seen. But it was beautifully shot, masterfully acted and the story was incredible, unlike many films I have seen. The WOM on this film was fantastic.But who in their right mind would want to sit through that twice? Good or not, it's not a film that will get a lot of repeat business.Same with TDKR.I agree with this. I also think TDKR is the exact opposite of what people would want after a terrorist attack at a movie theater. It's very bleak with multiple terrorist attacks in the film. Honestly, it's doing a lot better than I expected on the morning of the shooting. With the media frenzy and the bleakness of the film, I was thinking it could go sub-350 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTF Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Sure it makes sense, you are just stuck in one mode FTF. You think that this is going to follow the same path as TDK and that simply isn't true. TDKR is already showing signs of erosion and that has nothing to do with the shooting now. It's weekdays are weaker than TDK and it's weekend has been much weaker. This weekend it's in for another sizable drop. There is just no way this film was going to come close the epic perfect story that TDK took advantage of.This response has nothing to do with anything I said though. It's almost like I was reading a response from BKB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Can we just wish the best for TDKR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Great drop for spidey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Damn it Disney. Looks like they have stopped giving daily numbers for TA. How hard is it give daily numbers for your biggest movie ever? We'll have to wait for weekly updates now. :rant: Lets wait and see if they appear on BOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Baumer, can you update the thread title with actuals? # Title Mon, Jul. 30 2012 Locations Avg. Total Wks. Dist. 1 The Dark Knight Rises $8,160,046 -58% 4,404 0 $1,853 $295,272,856 2 Warner Bros. 2 Ice Age: Continental Drift $1,843,850 -54% 3,869 -17 $477 $116,743,710 3 Fox 3 The Watch $1,588,869 -55% 3,168 -- $502 $14,339,166 1 Fox 4 Step Up Revolution $1,473,125 -49% 2,567 -- $574 $13,204,833 1 Lionsgate / Summit 5 Ted (2012) $1,016,925 -53% 3,129 -85 $325 $194,635,675 5 Universal 6 The Amazing Spider-Man $1,001,951 -51% 3,160 -593 $317 $242,955,672 4 Sony / Columbia 7 Brave $674,352 -50% 2,551 -348 $264 $218,004,024 6 Disney 8 Magic Mike $418,070 -37% 2,075 -531 $201 $108,044,053 5 Warner Bros. 9 Savages $268,435 -56% 1,414 -922 $190 $44,252,220 4 Universal Spidey actually went UP. Go Spidey! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MagnetMan Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 *looks sideways at his friend and whispers "With the way this thread is going, the last thing we need is........."Oh, hi, iJack. Welcome to the party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 *looks sideways at his friend and whispers "With the way this thread is going, the last thing we need is........."Oh, hi, iJack. Welcome to the party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 But if it is good, which I agree with, that is not going to get it to a 3 mutliplier and it certainly won't get it past 500. Just because something is good, doesn't mean people are going to run out and see it multiple times.Here's an example. The Road with Aragorn, is one of the bleakest, most depressing, saddest, unhappy films I have ever seen. But it was beautifully shot, masterfully acted and the story was incredible, unlike many films I have seen. The WOM on this film was fantastic.But who in their right mind would want to sit through that twice? Good or not, it's not a film that will get a lot of repeat business.Same with TDKR.We have agreed that, TDKR without the shooting would have opened around 180-185M. From there, it only needs 2.78-2.70x to hit 500M. Not mission impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punishment Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Lets wait and see if they appear on BOMNope, not there either??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZattMurdock Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Damn it Disney. Looks like they have stopped giving daily numbers for TA. How hard is it give daily numbers for your biggest movie ever? We'll have to wait for weekly updates now. :rant: Quite stupid from Disney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
