MagnetMan Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Don't ever let anybody get ya down, iJack. You're a good sport!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 What are you talking about with that first sentence? Under the worst case scenario possible for its ow, it's going to hit $450m, but under normal conditions without a massacre it wouldn't hit $500m no chance in the world??? That makes no sense...again, just take $185m ow, use the same drops it's having (which are slightly worse because of shootings or as you think, bad wom), and it's hitting $500m.Since I apparently didn't address this, here is my response. If the shooting affected it so much, then where is he great recovery? When will it start having uncharacteristically low drops to make up for all of those terrified people who stayed away OW?The truth is they wo't come and there won't be any great drops because word has gotten out that TDKR just isn't that good, or that it is good, but it isn't that great. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Nope, not there either??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letsuseournoggin Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I can respond to both of these with the same example - DH2. Potter fans turned out by the millions and look what kind of OW they racked up. Yes, SM3 was another one. Casual fans either have no interest or read the bad reviews (in order of my examples), which means a very large OW doesn't always equal good legs.I am not saying TDKR would have been *that* frontloaded (as SM3) or *that* fan driven (as DH2), but it is more so in both categories than TDK was. Nolan has a huge fanbase, folks. He has earned it because every movie the man makes is awesome... but the effect at the box office is frontloaded-ness.TA had much more walk-up business.I get the point you are making, but when you're talking that big of a number for a property like Batman, there are way more casual fans than fanboys. Those 15-16million casual fans on OW to the 4 million or so fanboys, would just as easily turn the other way and skip the movie til home release because of the shootings.Obviously those are rough numbers I pulled out my ass, but when you're talking numbers that big, you're bound to have plenty just skip it. Of course, others will just wait for another weekend, but I'd say there are quite a bit who just as easily wait. People tend to forget that movies for the general public are not that big a deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Since I apparently didn't address this, here is my response.If the shooting affected it so much, then where is he great recovery? When will it start having uncharacteristically low drops to make up for all of those terrified people who stayed away OW?The truth is they wo't come and there won't be any great drops because word has gotten out that TDKR just isn't that good, or that it is good, but it isn't that great. Or those 'terrified' people aren't going to the theater at all and will wait for home video. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I think it's a combination of things. All in all it is doing very well. Could have turned out to be a completely toxic situation for the film. As I said, I was afraid it might go sub-350 in the initial hours after the shooting. It already had a number of things built in that would hurt it compared to something like TDK or TA, and those things would only be made worse by the theater shooting. Too dark and bleak is a complaint about the film from plenty of people. What do you think audiences would want to watch after a theater shooting? A dark and bleak movie where the villain blows up bridges, blows up a football stadium, and shoots the shit out of the stock exchange? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doublejack Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 (edited) I agree with this. I also think TDKR is the exact opposite of what people would want after a terrorist attack at a movie theater. It's very bleak with multiple terrorist attacks in the film. Honestly, it's doing a lot better than I expected on the morning of the shooting. With the media frenzy and the bleakness of the film, I was thinking it could go sub-350 total.I think that speaks to the resilience of the public, and that fans were not going to be deterred. Not even a lunatic going on a shooting spree could knock this film below about $450M.Now, if the same thing happened during a TA showing, or say during Shrek 2... whole different story there. Parents strop bringing thier kids in droves, and the films may as well go straight to HV at that point (I am exaggerating, but obviously the boxoffice impact would be severe). Edited July 31, 2012 by doublejack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Nevada Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I know its supposed to be a good movie, but these Madagascar 3 ads on tv are annoying me so much. It looks like a shitty, sugar-hopped movie for ADD-kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 If there was a successful copycat over opening weekend then the movie (and movies in general for a little while) would have been finished. So things could always be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 I think that speaks to the resilience of the public, and that fans were not going to be deterred. Not even a lunatic going on a shooting spree could knock this film below about $450M.Now, if the same thing happened during a TA showing, or say during Shrek 2... whole different story there. Parents strop bringing thier kids in droves, and the films may as well go straight to HV at that point (I am exaggerating, but obviously the boxoffice impact would be severe).TDKR's most impacted audience is probably that 13-15 age group. Plenty of Batman fans in that group, but none of them can legally drive themselves to the theater. Parents have a lot more control over those kids than the 16 and up age group. I would be furious if I was around 13 or 14 when this movie came out and my parents stopped me from seeing it because of paranoia. My parents are pretty cool though so I don't think they would have done that, but I think there are probably quite a few around the country that are pulling this nonsense on their kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoeticProse22 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Since I apparently didn't address this, here is my response. If the shooting affected it so much, then where is he great recovery? When will it start having uncharacteristically low drops to make up for all of those terrified people who stayed away OW? The truth is they wo't come and there won't be any great drops because word has gotten out that TDKR just isn't that good, or that it is good, but it isn't that great. Honestly, I think the WOM from the GA is that it's great, just not as excellent as TA and TDK. The bleak nature of the film sure doesn't help it's BO prospects either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTX Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 If there was a successful copycat over opening weekend then the movie (and movies in general for a little while) would have been finished. So things could always be worse.'Copycats' is an urban myth. Some people will always find reasons to be scared, but copycat killers never materialize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 With really really good holds TASM could cross 250 mill on sunday...But monday/tuesday is more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatebox Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Someone posted a twitter feed of kids on the weekend complaining they weren't allowed to see TDKR. The number was depressingly high. But hey, if a parent thinks there's even a 0.1% chance of a copycat they're not gonna take the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 In my (third) viewing yesterday there was a security guard running up the stairs and I almost jumped in my seat. It was nothing, but hey, fear will find you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Someone posted a twitter feed of kids on the weekend complaining they weren't allowed to see TDKR. The number was depressingly high. But hey, if a parent thinks there's even a 0.1% chance of a copycat they're not gonna take the risk.Doesn't help that a security expert wrote an article where he basically blamed the parents for taking their kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 In my (third) viewing yesterday there was a security guard running up the stairs and I almost jumped in my seat. It was nothing, but hey, fear will find you.Yeah when I saw it on Sunday, a security guard went to check the emergency exit at the beginning of the movie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moviedweeb Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Since I apparently didn't address this, here is my response. If the shooting affected it so much, then where is he great recovery? When will it start having uncharacteristically low drops to make up for all of those terrified people who stayed away OW?The truth is they wo't come and there won't be any great drops because word has gotten out that TDKR just isn't that good, or that it is good, but it isn't that great. I do agree mostly, but there many who just don't want to see this film in the theaters period because of the negative associations. But yes, if people were just staying away for the first week and WOM was great, it would be reflected in the numbers and that just hasn't happened. I also agree with Baumer that this film does not lend itself to multiple viewings in the same way as TDK, not even close. Those expected a miraculous recovery will be disappointed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Congrats on the Watch for passing 14 million 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAR Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 'Copycats' is an urban myth. Some people will always find reasons to be scared, but copycat killers never materialize.Tell that to Sigourney Weaver 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
