Monday (7/30/12) Numbers TDKR $8,160,046

[#ED]

I don't think it would have. WOM is not strong enough.But we've done this dance before, no point in doing it again.

A good 5% of the media agrees with you.

[doublejack]

Would have passed 500m in my opinion without the shooting

It's possible, but I think it would have fallen a bit short. My thinking is that a 175M OW was reasonable up until the shooting, which knocked it down almost 15M. Based on that assumption, the total projected loss is 20-30M. So if TDKR reaches 470M then I would agree, but since it looks to be finishing a lot closer to 450M I have to say I believe it would have fallen short of 500M by a good 20M.

[RTX]

You are like talking to a brick wall. :bash:

I tend to back up my arguments with logic and data. All you can do is throw insults at me. That's the difference between me and fanboys here.

[redfirebird2008]

I was sad to report that by the end of the first weekend, I had accepted that the anticipation from the general audience, although massive no doubt, had been overestimated on this forum, with me absolutely being a part of it. I bought into the 200m OW and over TDK club. But looking back on it, and objectively approaching the entire matter, even if the shooting hadn't occurred, 180m OW would have been tops IMO and a domestic haul of maybe 500-510m would have been the max. Again, just my opinion so I don't want to start another debate here, but the only thing I can attribute to these drops is yes, the Joker and Ledger effect. I felt that other factors were at play that could have compensated for lack of those two, but alas, it's quite obvious now that the effect was bigger than I had realized.I should have stuck to my original prediction from the get go -181m OW481m Dom691m OSPretty reasonable I think and I had not yet gone into loonytown.

Your original domestic prediction would have been pretty close to accurate. Shooting cost it around $20m on opening weekend and maybe around $30m total. You were on the right track if you didn't get caught up in the hype. Your overseas prediction was very optimistic, perhaps too optimistic. I would be very happy if it can reach $650m with China.

[baumer]

A good 5% of the media agrees with you.

But I'm smarter than most of the media when it comes to box office stuff. I, like much of you, spend waaaaay too much time on this stuff every day. So I believe I'm correct and 95% of the media is incorrect.

[#ED]

But I'm smarter than most of the media when it comes to box office stuff. I, like much of you, spend waaaaay too much time on this stuff every day. So I believe I'm correct and 95% of the media is incorrect.

Oh.

[Hatebox]

Without the shooting I think it could have opened to 185m, which was my original prediction right up to its opening. Its legs would have been similar either way, I imagine. The movie simply isn't for everyone.

Edited July 31, 2012 by Hatebox

[druv10]

Slightly is not accurate. Let's say it reaches $75m in IMAX and $450m total. That's the equivalent of $420m without IMAX. B89 is $500m adjusted, which is about 19% higher in ticket sales than TDKR. That is not a small difference. Meanwhile, $420m without IMAX boost would be 25% higher ticket sales than the next highest non-Joker Batman film, Batman Forever. Pretty damn good.

Okay, you won me over. For a non-Joker movie total is great, regardless of shooting.

[John Marston]

I don't believe Ledger's death helped TDK. His perfomance as Joker? Yes that helped definitely, but just his death alone? No I can never believe that.

[Letsuseournoggin]

Your original domestic prediction would have been pretty close to accurate. Shooting cost it around $20m on opening weekend and maybe around $30m total. You were on the right track if you didn't get caught up in the hype. Your overseas prediction was very optimistic, perhaps too optimistic. I would be very happy if it can reach $650m with China.

Yeah, I won't bother to look where I posted those numbers, but I did post those predicts several time and should have stuck to them. OS was optimistic, I'll admit, but I always banked on China being included (hope that doesn't change) and the growth of OS markets, I also optimistically predicted UK would stay flat as well as Australia and the other big markets. I thought the increases would come from the expansion of all the smaller markets and a huge haul in China. All things considered, I think that 691m OS wasn't a bad guess. I can easily recall getting into discussions with others saying that 550m was tops. TDKR is doing big business OS.

[baumer]

Oh.

Why does the "media" get to be annointed as knowing more than we do when it comes to box office? There's no way 95% of them spend nearly as much time as many of us do on this stuff.

[baumer]

I don't believe Ledger's death helped TDK. His perfomance as Joker? Yes that helped definitely, but just his death alone? No I can never believe that.

You should.

[Thrylos 7]

TASM should finish around 260M, definitely not the bomb some were expecting or more like hoping and praying for. TASM should clear 700M and has a shot at 750M+ pending China. Definite success for Sony.Same applies for TDKR, no way 450M+/1.1B WW total is a disappointment. People just had incredibly high expectations that got boosted by TA including me. TDKR has dealt with a lot from OW so this total is satisfactory in my book for both fans and the WB.

I never expected that i would see the day that a spider man movie doing 260 or less million $$ in the U.S BO would be considered a success .

[filmnerdjamie]

Zero point of playing "What if..." because we'll never know. Its locked in for mid-400Ms with the cards dealt. That's great. Move on?

[Letsuseournoggin]

I don't believe Ledger's death helped TDK. His perfomance as Joker? Yes that helped definitely, but just his death alone? No I can never believe that.

Let's please not get into this one again. It's been beaten to death with a corked bat.

[Mango]

$450 million sounds reasonable. TDKR's weekend gross played out a LOT better than what Friday's numbers initially suggested. Granted a bit of that probably was from the Olympics, but still. Total Recall isn't going to provide any worthwhile competition so this weekend should be relatively slow and maybe a lower 40% hold is in the realm of possibilities.

[fmpro]

Actually, if we are getting it right, the line is "I'm not a smart man Jenny, but I know what love is."

LOOOOOOOOOOOL

[druv10]

I tend to back up my arguments with logic and data. All you can do is throw insults at me. That's the difference between me and fanboys here.

lol, logic? You were dead wrong with TA on every turn and I mean literally every turn. You have no logic, just a biased opinion that you portray as fact.

[redfirebird2008]

Yeah, I won't bother to look where I posted those numbers, but I did post those predicts several time and should have stuck to them. OS was optimistic, I'll admit, but I always banked on China being included (hope that doesn't change) and the growth of OS markets, I also optimistically predicted UK would stay flat as well as Australia and the other big markets. I thought the increases would come from the expansion of all the smaller markets and a huge haul in China. All things considered, I think that 691m OS wasn't a bad guess. I can easily recall getting into discussions with others saying that 550m was tops. TDKR is doing big business OS.

Staying flat in the UK is basically impossible. Exchange rate has collapsed since 2008. Avengers made more in pounds than TDK, but $8m less in USD. TDKR faces a similar challenge, plus has the Olympics in London hurting its performance there. Still it's doing great so far, less than 1% behind Avengers after two weekends even with the second weekend being deflated by the Olympics. But at the end of the day it will do well to get within $5-10m of TDK's dollar gross there. The rest of Europe has similar issues with exchange rates, which makes it hard for the film to increase over TDK in a lot of those markets. Japan is one market where it has a huge advantage over TDK due to fluctuating exchange rate. Could make $20m higher in that market as a result.

[FTF]

dp

Edited July 31, 2012 by FTF