charlie Jatinder Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said: I'm not always right about box office and never deny it. But if that become the evidence to prove I'm wrong. Fine, I quite. Ignore the bitter uncle. I have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Ignore the bitter uncle. I have. ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 maoyan predicts 3.44B final total for Nezha 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said: What? He is behaving like a microscopic criticism is the end of the world... Out of the blue... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Ignore the bitter uncle. I have. @POTUS 2020 is bitter?? Never seen that. At all 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nero Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 21 minutes ago, fmpro said: @POTUS 2020 is bitter?? Never seen that. At all He means Trump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrGlass2 Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 Come back Gavin you're our only hope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaidensSword Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 4 hours ago, Gavin Feng said: won't hit $400M. I agree with Gavin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiffy Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 2 hours ago, Olive said: maoyan predicts 3.44B final total for Nezha Just shy of $500m? What's the highest they've ever predicted after OW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 4 hours ago, Jiffy said: Is CBO still anticipated to overtake US revenue in the near-future? no. but I dont just say no without reason. Gavin gave a good reason after his initial statement but Charlie made a good counter argument with Monday being smaller than friday on DtS. Monday being larger than Friday is huge, $400m locked. Many authors of BO columns and nearly everyone in this forum thought in 2015 that CBO would overtake Domestic by 2017-18. I nailed the slow down when no one saw it coming in 2015. Some columnists have recently repeated that CBO will pass Dom in a couple of years. 2018 was $9b and 2019 is pacing for a 5% or larger drop. I've recently realized that most of the gains have been from CNY, a time that has become a tradition to take in a movie. With screens doubling since 2015, CNY gains have increased but the rest of the market is near flat outside of the top 3 grossers of the year. They have nearly maxed out on disposable income shown below. Could be 10 or more years. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 this summer have been bad for local releases with so many movies dropping out completely bcos of censorship reasons. otherwise we need few domestic mega blockbusters every summer for China to take overall record. Its not going to break the record with just hollywood movies. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted July 29, 2019 Share Posted July 29, 2019 6 hours ago, cannastop said: Byron Howard says he's working on a musical now. Which is most likely NOT Zootopia 2. So unless they got a new director, Zootopia 2 isn't going anywhere. And there are no credible rumors that it is going anywhere. Earliest is Nov 2021 but sure I will concede 2023 is possible. Zero chance or close to it that a sequel doesn't happen. Very strong demand for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said: no. but I dont just say no without reason. Gavin gave a good reason after his initial statement but Charlie made a good counter argument with Monday being smaller than friday on DtS. Monday being larger than Friday is huge, $400m locked. Many authors of BO columns and nearly everyone in this forum thought in 2015 that CBO would overtake Domestic by 2017-18. I nailed the slow down when no one saw it coming in 2015. Some columnists have recently repeated that CBO will pass Dom in a couple of years. 2018 was $9b and 2019 is pacing for a 5% or larger drop. I've recently realized that most of the gains have been from CNY, a time that has become a tradition to take in a movie. With screens doubling since 2015, CNY gains have increased but the rest of the market is near flat outside of the top 3 grossers of the year. They have nearly maxed out on disposable income shown below. Could be 10 or more years. I remembered thinking that China would surpass domestic by 2018, most people thought 2017 I think. Then it came to a abrupt halt, you were definitely the only one seeing that coming. The gap between China and Domestic in 2019 will be fairly large, obviously, but next year seems interesting as Domestic market is almost bound to shrink quite a bit from 2019, while China is as always uncertain, obviously China won't surpass domestic next year yet, but I'm interested in seeing how large or small the gap will be. Edited July 30, 2019 by NCsoft 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claudio Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Don't worry guys. Gavin made some wrong predictions lately on purpose just so he can take a break from giving box office updates because he's secretly dating with the love of his life , Daisy Ridley. He wants to focus on his relationship and when everything goes right , I believe he'll be back with his accurate predictions like before. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xiaoshu Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Ne Zha was 135M at 7p.m Mon Today 140M at 7p.m 2 1 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 21 hours ago, Gavin Feng said: Dying to Survive $31M on Monday $233M total. Another $235M from the rest of the run. Ne Zha $27M on Monday $131M total. $269M from the rest of run? Ignoring The Bravest, Line Walker 2? I'm not always right about box office and never deny it. But if that become the evidence to prove I'm wrong. Fine, I quite. Im not always right either. When I state with conviction I give data to back it up, thats all. As you did here, after your original post. Thank you Lets look at it DTS NZ Th 160m Fr 241 137m Sa 386 230 Su 386 286 Mo 207 186 Tu 177 184 We 148 172? DTS had a great Sat bump and sun and mon holds. Tues and wed normalized with 15% drops. Demand burn kicking in after a larger OW. The trajectory on NZ is different. A smaller Fri with great bumps on both Sat and sun, and a huge hold on monday and Tues near flat. The WoM is still spreading and family films/toons generally have larger OW multis. NZ Tues passed DtS's Tues, as I suspected, and the gap will get bigger. $269m more is no problem now that we see Tues is 4% bigger and I assume Wed will be 15%+ bigger The Bravest is a different demo, they can coexist. Same with Line walker 2. New releases take a lot of shows on day 1, but a 9.7 rated, super holding, potentially $500m family film kicks new releases asses and take names later. They will get hit, not the normal other way around. @fmpro 👍 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeoC Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Gavin has a lot of inside information when it comes to CBO, but is not as good at box office prediction as POTUS and a few others are here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 (edited) Flat tuesday. 400-450 mill $ total commeth Edited July 30, 2019 by fmpro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 24 minutes ago, fmpro said: Flat tuesday. 400-450 mill $ total commeth Yup. possibly higher $102m OW $103m Midweek $105m 2nd weekend (even with a 150m thur this should happen- F185, S285, S255 $60m 2nd Midweek (normalized sun, mon, tues drops reduce the MW even with same WE amount $370m 14 day total with a $165m 2nd week. Just 60% drops in week 3 and 4 get it to $462m plus $10m+ for rest of run $472m 50% drops $493m +$15m RoR, $508m 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted July 30, 2019 Share Posted July 30, 2019 Wednesday presales are bigger than Monday&Tuesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...