China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[porginchina]

From the article (https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202201/1250077.shtml), that's an overall predicted range of ¥7-8 billion for all movies combined, not just for Watergate Bridge… they're predicting about ¥3 billion for Watergate Bridge, with no prediction for the movie's final tally and a hilarious note that word of mouth will affect eventual results (for comparison, The Battle at Lake Changjin took in ¥3.2 billion over National Day last year; Detective Chinatown 3 took in ¥3.56 billion over Spring Festival last year, and Hi, Mom took in 2.73 billion). Detective Chinatown 3 is totally undefeatable for a pure Fri-Sun opening weekend since that movie benefited from having Spring Festival on a Friday, and given the strength of Detective Chinatown 3's opening day, will be hard to unseat over Spring Festival, especially with competition coming from the Winter Olympics.

 

Plus, while Global Times is sometimes useful for box office analysis, they're so fiercely nationalistic/pro-Party as to be not the most reputable when it comes to accurately projecting numbers (on no planet does any data anywhere suggest that Snipers will be a threat to any of the major competitors; last year, they suggested that the first Changjin could make ¥8 billion, which… it did not). The fact that even the Party mouthpiece newpaper is projecting that Changjin 2 will open less than the first one and potentially be affected by audience fatigue and negative word-of-mouth is, however, extremely noteworthy.

[Issac Newton]

19 minutes ago, porginchina said:

From the article (https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202201/1250077.shtml), that's an overall predicted range of ¥7-8 billion for all movies combined, not just for Watergate Bridge… they're predicting about ¥3 billion for Watergate Bridge, with no prediction for the movie's final tally and a hilarious note that word of mouth will affect eventual results (for comparison, The Battle at Lake Changjin took in ¥3.2 billion over National Day last year; Detective Chinatown 3 took in ¥3.56 billion over Spring Festival last year, and Hi, Mom took in 2.73 billion). Detective Chinatown 3 is totally undefeatable for a pure Fri-Sun opening weekend since that movie benefited from having Spring Festival on a Friday, and given the strength of Detective Chinatown 3's opening day, will be hard to unseat over Spring Festival, especially with competition coming from the Winter Olympics.

 

Plus, while Global Times is sometimes useful for box office analysis, they're so fiercely nationalistic/pro-Party as to be not the most reputable when it comes to accurately projecting numbers (on no planet does any data anywhere suggest that Snipers will be a threat to any of the major competitors; last year, they suggested that the first Changjin could make ¥8 billion, which… it did not). The fact that even the Party mouthpiece newpaper is projecting that Changjin 2 will open less than the first one and potentially be affected by audience fatigue and negative word-of-mouth is, however, extremely noteworthy.

Probably, I got mistake with word "film" which wasn't plural. Understanding the consequences of Winter Olympics, I think a range of $250M-$300M should be a safe target for WGB. Potential runner-up seems to be either Nice View &Only Fools Rush in. But, both WGB &Snipers being an War Epic possibly gives a like vs like scenario but pre-sales does not give me an enough word to say it can be a problem for WGB (In either case, unless there is a negative WOM like last year DC3, WGB can easily win the Festival) Yes, also accepting that it does not break any records of DC3. Conclusion (from me), unless any one leads I can safely affirmed a bigger Opening, though can not assume a bigger finals.

Edited January 28, 2022 by Issac Newton

[The GOAT]

So, first billy DOM movie or no? 

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

So, first billy DOM movie or no? 

DOM? No.

 

China? Also no.

[The GOAT]

1 minute ago, RiddlerXXR said:

DOM? No.

 

China? Also no.

[porginchina]

Was playing around on Maoyan today and found that they've uploaded projected totals for Feb. 1 presales and Feb. 1 grosses for all the Spring Festival releases this year (NB: because this post touches on total grosses, I decided it fit better in the general discussion thread rather than the dedicated presales discussion thread). Without further adieu…

 

Maoyan estimated total presaes for Feb. 1 (in millions), in descending order (note: these estimates are… interesting; for instance, Nice View has been leading Only Fools Rush In since the start and there’s nothing to indicate that Only Fools would actually overtake Nice View)

长津湖之水门桥 (The Battle at Lake Changjin II) ¥321/$51.4
四海 (Only Fools Rush In) ¥99.4/$15.9
奇迹·笨小孩 (Nice View) ¥97.4/$15.6
这个杀手不太冷静 (Too Cool to Kill) ¥91.2/$14.6
熊出没：重返地球 (Boonie Bears: Back to Earth) ¥51.5/$8.24
狙击手 (Snipers) ¥42.1/$6.73
喜羊羊与黑太狼之筐出未来 (Dunk For Future) ¥19.9/$3.19
小虎墩大英雄 (Run Tiger Run) ¥7.95/$1.27

 

Maoyan estimated total grosses for Feb. 1 (in millions)

长津湖之水门桥 (The Battle at Lake Changjin II) ¥922/$147 (if this is the slightest bit accurate — if — we could see the second-highest single-day gross for a Chinese movie, only behind Detective Chinatown 3’s opening day)
奇迹·笨小孩 (Nice View) ¥247/$39.2
四海 (Only Fools Rush In) ¥212/$33.9
这个杀手不太冷静 (Too Cool to Kill) ¥188/$30.1
狙击手 (Snipers) ¥98.5/$15.8
熊出没：重返地球 (Boonie Bears: Back to Earth) ¥80.9/$12.9
喜羊羊与黑太狼之筐出未来 (Dunk For Future) ¥27.3/$4.3
小虎墩大英雄 (Run Tiger Run) ¥8.90/$1.42

 

This would add up to a total of $1780ish, above 2021’s ¥1692 single-day on Spring Festival and 2019’s ¥1458. With a few days to go, a lot can change, and as mentioned before, some of these guesses seem wonky, especially for the total presales. We’ve also seen plenty of movies recently fail to meet their initial Maoyan projected totals (Matrix Resurrections is one example with its astonishingly bad Chinese social media scores, but Wuhan 2020-themed comedy/drama 穿过寒冷拥抱你 (Warm Embrace) similarly sputtered off its massive New Year’s weekend and will close under the ¥1 billion mark). Personally, I'm still expecting ¥700ish million RMB for Changjin II's opening day, with the caveat that this is a cheerfully uninformed guess based on nothing but personal instinct.

 

For reference, I’ve pulled all these numbers out of Maoyan as of ~3:00 p.m. China time on Jan. 29; creating the lists of estimates required going to each new release one-by-one and looking at presales data.

Edited January 29, 2022 by porginchina

[xieh tie]

On 12/23/2021 at 4:16 PM, xieh tie said:

Tony Leung Chiu-Wai Chinese-Propaganda Blockbuster Eyes 2022 Release

 

 

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/tony-leung-anonymous-propaganda-movie-1235142560/

 

this must be good

The movie trailer is scheduled to start playing in theatres, in February

[Sophia Jane]

Maoyan Prediction of TBALC2 OD is around ￥900m

[LPLC]

21 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Maoyan Prediction of TBALC2 OD is around ￥900m

Best OD ever ?

[peludo]

17 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Best OD ever ?

OD record is 1.011b Yuan (Detective Chinatown 3, CNY OD last year)

[JonahVex]

What are the top 5 most anticipated hollywood films in china for 2022? 

[XXR vs XXR]

2 hours ago, JonahVex said:

What are the top 5 most anticipated hollywood films in china for 2022? 

 

Idk officially but I'd probably say....

1. Avatar 2
2. Jurassic World: Dominion 

3. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

4. Thor: Love and Thunder 
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness 

[charlie Jatinder]

I hate this word Propaganda used to demean Chinese box office. Like every fucking War movie is propaganda movie but never saw Dunkirk called Propaganda movie by mainstream media.

Edited January 30, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I hate this word Propaganda used to demean Chinese box office. Like every fucking War movie is propaganda movie but never saw Dunkirk called Propaganda movie by mainstream media.

Do you mean to say that American Sniper wasn’t a totally neutral documentary????

Edited January 30, 2022 by Product Driven Legion

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I hate this word Propaganda used to demean Chinese box office. Like every fucking War movie is propaganda movie but never saw Dunkirk called Propaganda movie by mainstream media.

According to media, anyone can win Annual Charts but it should not be a Chinese Film. It's not only for War biopic but also goes same for other categories. West (not all of them) finds difficult in understanding non-English films, but that same person can watch all English Films irrespective of their theme. Also, Media are influenced by thoughts of political parties ruling in the country. This problem will never be solved unless they don't treat film as film (In other words, never consider the film as altering the history/reality, after all, it's just a film. Yes, it's just a film)

[porginchina]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I hate this word Propaganda used to demean Chinese box office. Like every fucking War movie is propaganda movie but never saw Dunkirk called Propaganda movie by mainstream media.

100% agree. I've seen a ton of domestic Chinese movies, with an emphasis on the big government-favored narratives a la Battle at Lake Changjin (much to the amusement/derision of my Chinese friends and colleagues). Western coverage I read of the Chinese box office describes way too many of these movies with a simplistic "patriotic" and fails to take into account any of the complexity behind Chinese movie production and Chinese moviegoing (and while Lake Changjin is a technically incompetent mess of a movie that I cannot in good consciousness recommend to anyone, some of the so-called propaganda movies are genuinely well-made and engaging! for instance, many of the segments in the Me and… series are legit wonderful). Honestly, feel like the nonstop focus on the triumph of Chinese propaganda is just scaremongering, creating a false demon for Hollywood to fight, and (indirectly) slandering the Chinese people as thoughtless sheep blindly following Xi Jinping's every whim when the reality is far more complicated and nuanced and interesting.

 

A lot of my curiosity with Changjin II comes from the fact that some of the most propaganda-ish of the so-called propaganda movies have comparatively sputtered at the box office recently (1921, which released on the CCP's self-appointed 100th birthday of July 1, flamed out hard despite zero competition; Chinese Doctors failed to come anywhere close to Chinese Pilot from the same creative team despite having no competition).

 

I could be mistaken, but we've also never seen a follow-up to a mega-grossing Chinese movie manage to achieve quality word-of-mouth (Monster Hunt 2, Detective Chinatown 3, Jiang Ziya, etc.); it'll be fascinating to see how this sequel does (just a few days to go until opening day, am excited).

[porginchina]

Also, as we wait for anything interesting to happen with the Chinese box office (other than Spring Festival presales), my mostly baseless speculation for some forthcoming Hollywood blockbusters and factors that may or may not influence their chances at a Chinese release. Some of this will depend on Spring Festival; ironically, I think a really strong Spring Festival would be a good sign for Hollywood as China could allow more foreign movies in without losing face over having a weak domestic box office (not sure how they'd handle a weak Spring Festival putting China in a vulnerable box office position, but I can't imagine authorities having to admit that they need to rely on Hollywood to preserve Chinese movie theaters)

 

Uncharted— officially approved, waiting on a release date; I’d guess late February (maybe Feb. 25)

 

Spider-Man: No Way Home— there’s a high-quality pirated version making the rounds on the Chinese Internet, so seems like it’s about time to give this one a a release date (could go either way but I lean towards optimism… government hasn’t singled Spider-Man out in any of their fits about offensive Marvel movies and I’ve seen posters for No Way Home at some Shanghai movie theaters, although in fairness posters at theaters don’t actually mean much)

 

Moonfall— sure seems like the type of movie that should go to Chinese theaters (and it has some Chinese financing, although that didn't help Venom 2)

 

The Batman— with a PG-13, don’t see why it wouldn’t get an uncensored Chinese release (and WB’s ability to snag releases for Dune and Matrix bodes well for Batman)

 

Turning Red & Lightyear— Pixar’s other recent movies have landed theatrical Chinese releases. Lightyear should be fine, although it won’t make much; Turning Red has a lot more potential upside, but having a director of Chinese descent could be problematic depending on whether any über-nationalistic netizens can dig up dirt on director Domee Shi

 

Morbius— could go either way after Venom 2; can't see it making massive money in China even with a release

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2— strikes me as a relatively safer bet to secure a Chinese release date, although not a potential blockbuster in the making (which makes it all the safer a bet to secure a Chinese release)

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald & Minions: The Rise of Gru & Jurassic World: Dominion— lumping these three together as Harry Potter, Minions, and Jurassic World all anchor themed lands at the newly opened (and lavishly expensive) Universal Studios Beijing, making me think that they have a decent chance of landing Chinese release dates (although the theme park is more a project of the local Beijing city government, as opposed to film releases, which are determined by the national Chinese government)

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness & Thor: Love and Thunder & Black Panther: Wakanda Forever— who knows when Marvel will be forgiven by Beijing for Shang-Chi and Eternals (I expect Marvel to be forgiven at some point; the brand is strong and Disney generally does okay with China)

 

Top Gun: Maverick— would be embarrassing (and hilarious) if they didn’t get a Chinese release date after the highly publicized alteration of the fighter jackets to remove Taiwan symbols

 

Black Adam & The Flash & Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom— I don’t think DC is in trouble with Chinese authorities (although the odds of Aquaman releasing in 2022 against Avatar 2 seem questionable)

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Part One— Spider-Man’s a popular character in China and the movie isn’t connected to the MCU, so I’d guess that this one should be okay to release

 

Avatar 2— in my mind, the year’s big question mark. A Hollywood movie hasn’t topped the annual Chinese box office since Transformers: Age of Extinction in 2014. Based on James Cameron’s track record, a well-timed release for Avatar 2 would give the movie a shot at the all-time Chinese record… something I assume authorities are keen to avoid handing to a non-domestic release. Depending on how Spring Festival goes this year (and the summer season and National Day), I could easily see Avatar 2 being treated sub-optimally to ensure that a Chinese movie maintains the crown. Then again, Cameron is popular in China and seems careful to stay on the right side of authorities, and the original Avatar did fairly well in its rerelease last year. So… basically I have no idea what will happen.

[charlie Jatinder]

CNY Day 1 admits

 

2021 - 34.45M (Top film 20.4M)

2019 - 32.28M (Top film 9M)

2018 - 32.63M (Top film 14.2M)

2017 - 21.30M (Top film 8.9M)

2016 - 17.70M (Top film 7.3M)

 

2022 currently has 7.85M pre-sales with top film at 3.2M. Final pre-sales will most likely be around 12-13M. I doubt if we can hit 30M this time. Will need some really high walk-ins, which is not gonna be a big surprise.

[MG10]

12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I hate this word Propaganda used to demean Chinese box office. Like every fucking War movie is propaganda movie but never saw Dunkirk called Propaganda movie by mainstream media.

 

Yeah there is little doubt that several Chinese blockbusters are not really disguised propaganda, but Americans (and their media) are probably the least self-aware population in the world...

Edited January 30, 2022 by MG10

[xieh tie]

happy Chinese new year, wish china box office prosperous and thriving in tiger year

 

 

 

 

Wish you prosperous and thriving in

Baca artikel wolipop, "30 Ucapan Imlek 2022 dalam Bahasa Inggris untuk Keluarga Hingga Rekan Kerja" selengkapnya https://wolipop.detik.com/worklife/d-5921752/30-ucapan-imlek-2022-dalam-bahasa-inggris-untuk-keluarga-hingga-rekan-kerja.

Download Apps Detikcom Sekarang https://apps.detik.com/detik/

Happy Chinese New Year

Baca artikel wolipop, "30 Ucapan Imlek 2022 dalam Bahasa Inggris untuk Keluarga Hingga Rekan Kerja" selengkapnya https://wolipop.detik.com/worklife/d-5921752/30-ucapan-imlek-2022-dalam-bahasa-inggris-untuk-keluarga-hingga-rekan-kerja.

Download Apps Detikcom Sekarang https://apps.detik.com/detik/

Happy Chinese New Year

Baca artikel wolipop, "30 Ucapan Imlek 2022 dalam Bahasa Inggris untuk Keluarga Hingga Rekan Kerja" selengkapnya https://wolipop.detik.com/worklife/d-5921752/30-ucapan-imlek-2022-dalam-bahasa-inggris-untuk-keluarga-hingga-rekan-kerja.

Download Apps Detikcom Sekarang https://apps.detik.com/detik/