China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Issac Newton]

Wishing Everyone: Happy Chinese New Year ✨🌼

 

As for the Box Office, THR says that TBALC II is heavily anticipated/forecast to be the 1st $1.0B (¥6500M) film in single Market.

 

While, Artisans Gateway is expecting a print of $1.3B (¥8000M) - $1.4B (¥8500M) for 2022 Lunar New Year BO.

 

For Comparison:

2017 : $508M

2018 : $871M

2019 : $856M

2020 : $N/A

2021 : $1.2B

 

However, outcome is always tricky as they explained that WOM in Chinese Social Media explain the lead at box office &Frontrunners have been victimized multiple times in early hours of release. Well, we expect an exception for 2022. (Just praying)

[MG10]

My post on the weekend thread attracted some weirdos so I'll post it here:

 

Usa + Canada

The Force Awakens 936M
Endgame 858M

Avatar 760M
No Way Home 736M

Black Panther 700M

 

China (not precise at 100%)

The Battle at Lake Changjin 911M

Wolf Warrior 2 874M

Hi Mom 821M

Ne Zha 719M

The Wandering Earth 694M

 

Usa alone

The Force Awakens 841M
Endgame 775M
No Way Home 684M
Avatar 663M

Black Panther 641M

Edited January 31, 2022 by MG10

[peludo]

15 minutes ago, MG10 said:

My post on the weekend thread attracted some weirdos so I'll post it here:

 

Usa + Canada

The Force Awakens 936M
Endgame 858M

Avatar 760M
No Way Home 736M

Black Panther 700M

 

China (not precise at 100%)

The Battle at Lake Changjin 911M

Wolf Warrior 2 874M

Hi Mom 821M

Ne Zha 719M

The Wandering Earth 694M

 

Usa alone

The Force Awakens 841M
Endgame 775M
No Way Home 684M
Avatar 663M

Black Panther 641M

If we were talking about WW grosses, I would understand the use of the dollars figures done in the moment of the release. But talking about local grosses I see more useful to convert the real lc figure to today ER (6.361). Applying that factor we have this:

 

China

1. The battle at lake Changjin: $908m

2. Wolf Warrior 2: $895m

3. Hi, mom: $851m

4. Ne Zha: $791m

5. The Wandering Earth: $737m

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, peludo said:

If we were talking about WW grosses, I would understand the use of the dollars figures done in the moment of the release. But talking about local grosses I see more useful to convert the real lc figure to today ER (6.361). Applying that factor we have this:

 

China

1. The battle at lake Changjin: $908m

2. Wolf Warrior 2: $895m

3. Hi, mom: $851m

4. Ne Zha: $791m

5. The Wandering Earth: $737m

"Breaking this to Admits"

Maoyan Numbers:

 

Wolf Warrior 2 : 159,984,816

The Battle At Lake Changjin : 124,298,812

Hi Mom : 120,944,011

Ne Zha : 141,085,700

The Wandering Earth : 105,075,344

[Shanks]

7 minutes ago, peludo said:

If we were talking about WW grosses, I would understand the use of the dollars figures done in the moment of the release. But talking about local grosses I see more useful to convert the real lc figure to today ER (6.361). Applying that factor we have this:

 

China

1. The battle at lake Changjin: $908m

2. Wolf Warrior 2: $895m

3. Hi, mom: $851m

4. Ne Zha: $791m

5. The Wandering Earth: $737m

 

In India, we generally don't care about Gross Amount but whenever we report HLW movie we report Gross = Nett + Tax.  Why? Because that's how USA rolls.

 

Now that ball is in CHINA's playground, People in China pay "Booking Charges" like rest of World but no where in world it gets added to the BOX office of Movie except for China (started in 2017.)  

So To Be Fair, cut those "Service Charge/Booking Charges" of 7% from Chinese grosses or be innovative and Add the amount of "Booking Charges" that US people pay to the US Grosses. 

 

Day ain't far when it will be done by someone big in Industry and then, it will become a norm.

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

So which one you think gonna win CNY?

I am think Nice View may be.

[Issac Newton]

From start, I am expecting Nice View (after you printed your views) but let's see how WGB start. My present target is to see if any one of is making $1.0B in single Market or need to wait for Avatar 2.

Edited January 31, 2022 by Issac Newton

[XXR vs XXR]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So which one you think gonna win CNY?

I am think Nice View may be.

Do any of them have Maoyan ratings yet? Seems like every CNY it’s never the film we expect to be on top, so idk which will be first but I know it won’t be TBALC2.

[peludo]

4 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

From start, I am expecting Nice View (after you printed your views) but let's see how WGB start. My present target is to see if any one of is making $1.0B in single Market or need to wait for Avatar 2.

With no ratings is hard to believe, but the initial forecast of Maoyan is:

The battle at Lake Changjin 2: 5.971b ($938m) - OD: 813m ($127m)

Only fools rush in: 1.911b ($300m) - OD: 249m ($39m)

Nice view: 1.658b ($260m) - OD: 240m ($38m)

Too cool to kill: 1.344b ($211m) - OD: 213m ($33m)

[Issac Newton]

9 minutes ago, peludo said:

With no ratings is hard to believe, but the initial forecast of Maoyan is:

The battle at Lake Changjin 2: 5.971b ($938m) - OD: 813m ($127m)

Only fools rush in: 1.911b ($300m) - OD: 249m ($39m)

Nice view: 1.658b ($260m) - OD: 240m ($38m)

Too cool to kill: 1.344b ($211m) - OD: 213m ($33m)

Overtaking SW:TFA is still a great target. Well, about Ratings, yes it's really doubtful. Maoyan usually update forecast each time it hits above their expectations. (At one point, they said ¥5.17B is the target for TBALC, which made ¥5776M at the end.) Totally, agreeing with your point, but I am just praying that WGB doesn't collapse like DC3 due to negative WOM. In other words, I just really want $1.0B in single market or in fact that ¥6000M benchmark to be crossed.

[The GOAT]

[charlie Jatinder]

$1B is not interesting anymore to me. 

 

Need something to do 160M admits and that will be $1.2B with sane tickets.

 

With insane tickets like TBALC 2, $1.4-1.5B.

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

Question

 

Do we think China could have a film with over 250M admissions by the end of this decade? 

 

That would still only be about 18% of the population, which is under the % of the majority of record breaking films in most markets. 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Question

 

Do we think China could have a film with over 250M admissions by the end of this decade? 

 

That would still only be about 18% of the population, which is under the % of the majority of record breaking films in most markets. 

18% is a LOT.

 

Even Japan pre DS was just around 18%. I think 15% is solid enough WW2 doing around 12% I think. That said yes there can be a 200M admits movie, may be a 250M. Need a strong local universal content.

[pepsa]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

18% is a LOT.

 

Even Japan pre DS was just around 18%. I think 15% is solid enough WW2 doing around 12% I think. That said yes there can be a 200M admits movie, may be a 250M. Need a strong local universal content.

Roaring current in SK was insane with over 34%, that would be close to 500m equivalent for China.

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Roaring current in SK was insane with over 34%, that would be close to 500m equivalent for China.

Titanic DOM 1st run was about 42%.

[Mau]

Is this Chinese new year poster for NWH official? Or just a fan art?

 

 

https://m.weibo.cn/status/4731633054517995

[The GOAT]

2 hours ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Question

 

Do we think China could have a film with over 250M admissions by the end of this decade? 

 

That would still only be about 18% of the population, which is under the % of the majority of record breaking films in most markets. 

Probably. Would require viewings from the rural side though. 

[The GOAT]

Nice View is currently at 4th place.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Nice View is currently at 4th place.

 

Good.

 

That is what CNY winners do.