China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[NCsoft]

41 minutes ago, Movies4Life said:

Guess Jurassic World: Dominion will have been the last Hollywood movie to come out in China.

Minions Rise of Gru came out too but barely made anything (that was after a HD version was already online and China movie going already in shambles). 

 

[honeycookiez]

6 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Yeah; am not sure is it something worn by him or a past interview where he said something related to supporting Dalai Lama - everything seems to have been deleted / censored on Weibo.

 

The Keanu Reeves one was really a waste;  investors were very keen to bring in John Wick 4 as Asian Superstar - Donnie Yen is in it; see how xXx 3 did in China just marketing Vin Diesel vs Donnie Yen...

What a waste. USD100m at least for John Wick 4 if it opens there.. but no chance now.

Well, it seems like the god  is really against DC this time I suppose, Black Adam is a really important DC project moving forward and its box office will decide the fate of a lot of future DC projects.
Speaking about Keanu Reeves, both he and Norman Reedus were running for MCU Ghost Rider last year but after the Tibetan scandal, rumor has it that the role immediately went to Norman, and Norman himself even posted a bunch of Ghost Rider pictures and vague tweets on Twitter to celebrate since most of Walking Dead fans know he loves to spoil stuff and he's like the Tom Holland of the Walking Dead franchise, it even added more fuel to the flame when Keanu himself said he was happy with whatever decision the studio made. 

Edited November 3, 2022 by honeycookiez

[MG10]

This censorship is becoming more and more absurd every day... Even Avatar isn't safe now

[cooldude97]

i kinda hope avatar 2 doesn't release in theaters for china just because it would make tracking that movie more fun and unpredictable 

[Gavin Feng]

51 minutes ago, honeycookiez said:

Well, it seems like the god  is really against DC this time I suppose, Black Adam is a really important DC project moving forward and its box office will decide the fate of a lot of future DC projects.
Speaking about Keanu Reeves, both he and Norman Reedus were running for MCU Ghost Rider last year but after the Tibetan scandal, rumor has it that the role immediately went to Norman, and Norman himself even posted a bunch of Ghost Rider pictures and vague tweets on Twitter to celebrate since most of Walking Dead fans know he loves to spoil stuff and he's like the Tom Holland of the Walking Dead franchise, it even added more fuel to the flame when Keanu himself said he was happy with whatever decision the studio made. 

 

If one movie fail or struggle in most major markets, China can do nothing but slightly improve your overall finance. It never turned a money losing movie into a money making machine. At best, studio in blind confidence would greenlight a sequel like Pacific Rim 2 because they believe Chinese would be milked. But this kind of decision logic was dead long ago. You want more sequels? Making better work instead of expecting a market would save a so called "it's not that bad" movie. 

 

Chinese audience want to see more movies especially good stuff. But if cultural constraints keep going, that's it. Beijing banned K-pop years ago, so what? That industry make even more surprising works and rule the world. And talents like Peter Chan, Tony Leung went to Busan and discovered opportunities. We are good if Hollywood can make better movies after Ministry of Culture refuse them. We can watch them anyway through online channels after six weeks with no fees.

Edited November 3, 2022 by Gavin Feng

[DlAMONDZ]

Maybe now Hollywood will learn how to budget properly instead of relying on China to save their asses

 

$200m for Black Adam was ridiculous

Edited November 3, 2022 by DlAMONDZ

[Gavin Feng]

Observers believe in future (5 years at least), the question is not whether China would allow more local or foreign films to secure releases; It's whether film market is still available. Culture Ministry will gather all resources the industry could apply for making propaganda film. 

 

14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) says China “will make about 10 quality films that gain box office successes and rave reviews every year and about 50 local films with ¥100M-plus box office” and will focus on "key projects". IOW, filmmakers couldn't make their own project until they finish these propaganda productions at first.

[honeycookiez]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

If one movie fail or struggle in most major markets, China can do nothing but slightly improve your overall finance. It never turned a money losing movie into a money making machine. At best, studio in blind confidence would greenlight a sequel like Pacific Rim 2 because they believe Chinese would be milked. But this kind of decision logic was dead long ago. You want more sequels? Making better work instead of expecting a market would save a so called "it's not that bad" movie. 

 

Chinese audience want to see more movies especially good stuff. But if cultural constraints keep going, that's it. Beijing banned K-pop years ago, so what? That industry make even more surprising works and rule the world. And talents like Peter Chan, Tony Leung went to Busan and discovered opportunities. We are good if Hollywood can make better movies after Ministry of Culture refuse them. We can watch them anyway through online channels after six weeks with no fees.

 

 

Thank you for the great info, my bad for making such an assumption because many of us thought China would save BA since they like  ...The Rock and for whatever reasons people could come up with, some even ridiculously trace back to Aquaman 1, a film got released during the holiday season and the blackout season  plus also a rip-off of the RGB glowing aquarium concept of Avatar which Chinese people like. So I guess even in an alternative dimension where BA gets a release date, it wouldn't make any different for its box office anyway since the Chinese audience wouldn't throw their money out of the window for free to save the hierarchy of DC.

[efialtes76]

2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

If one movie fail or struggle in most major markets, China can do nothing but slightly improve your overall finance. It never turned a money losing movie into a money making machine. At best, studio in blind confidence would greenlight a sequel like Pacific Rim 2 because they believe Chinese would be milked. But this kind of decision logic was dead long ago. You want more sequels? Making better work instead of expecting a market would save a so called "it's not that bad" movie. 

 

Chinese audience want to see more movies especially good stuff. But if cultural constraints keep going, that's it. Beijing banned K-pop years ago, so what? That industry make even more surprising works and rule the world. And talents like Peter Chan, Tony Leung went to Busan and discovered opportunities. We are good if Hollywood can make better movies after Ministry of Culture refuse them. We can watch them anyway through online channels after six weeks with no fees.

Two pieces of shit like the last Resident Evil movie or XXX3 did $150M+ in China and almost nothing in the rest of the world.

Edited November 4, 2022 by efialtes76

[Gavin Feng]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

Two pieces of shit like the last Resident Evil movie or XXX3 did $150M+ in China and almost nothing in the rest of the world.

 

 

Great example. Now we can do a simple calculation. Box office profit from China for these A-level movies would be $170M * ~22% = $37.4M. And I don't think the ultimate fate of a franchise would be so different with or without these money. If your movie have $10M net loss before coming to China, you will easily hit the break-even point and become profitable. But a global blockbuster with $27.4M net profits can hardly be seen as great success. A sequel would still face big risk. That's why films like Warcraft have no follow-up. Post that period, fewer HLW blockbusters could get those stunning results here. Studios can clearly see China will be less attractive in near future.

 

I don't expect our industry can be great under these climates. But I hope Chinese culture limitation and ban can make Hollywood great again.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Gavin Feng

[Arian1010]

Marvel was lucked out when they built their franchise during the peak of the Chinese film market plus they also got a.. super passionate fanbase . I doubt other franchises would get the same privilege. 

[Jeight]

Black adam wasn't gonna be profitable even with China.  I doubt the movie would gross 100+ there.  The DC brand does t have enough mileage to justify 200+ unless it's Batman.  Not even a Justice League movie with a budget like that would be safe. 

[Issac Newton]

On 11/3/2022 at 5:35 PM, Issac Newton said:

Cleared Censorship in July, Supposed to be introduced in September 16, now scheduled for next week release.

 

I was expecting Conan/Red and uww what happened to get release now..

First Imported Film to release after "Table For Six" back in September 9.

 

[The GOAT]

Looks like They're going to open up soon. Avatar to $800mil

[VENOM]

On 11/3/2022 at 8:18 PM, Movies4Life said:

Guess Jurassic World: Dominion will have been the last Hollywood movie to come out in China.

It took the third bad Jurassic World movie until China was like eff this no more Hollywood movies 

[Saul Goodman]

On 11/4/2022 at 3:54 AM, cooldude97 said:

i kinda hope avatar 2 doesn't release in theaters for china just because it would make tracking that movie more fun and unpredictable 

Cameron the type of box office obsessed director who would go there and meet the government so that it gets released there lol.

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, Saul Goodman said:

Cameron the type of box office obsessed director who would go there and meet the government so that it gets released there lol.

Just happened to know that Xi Jinping personally meet James Cameron on Vacation to know when his next masterpiece is releasing (tending to say that the Government is eagerly waiting for Avatar 2 release in Mainland)

[Psylocke]

"Avatar 2" will obviously be released in China, but will the government there make sure its does not outgross both  "The Battle at Lake Changjin" and "The Battle at Lake Changjin II," the former the highest grossing film of all time in China while the latter the highest grossing film of the year in China?

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by Psylocke

[poweranimals]

On 11/5/2022 at 12:25 PM, Psylocke said:

"Avatar 2" will obviously be released in China

It doesn't seem that obvious to me.

[eridani]

Films that don't get released in china usually have one of the following elements:

They are of supernatural/fantastical superhero type

They are showcasing social themes/values which are deemed not positive in China

They are showcasing US military/politics/wealth/power symbols

They feature authors or crew which have made public statements deemed unsuitable to China.

They contain depiction of Chinese culture/history that China has deemed unsuitable.

 

So yes, a lot of movies do not get released. But if movies are not touching those points above they have better chances of getting released. Luca, dune, encanto, batman, jungle cruise, f9, quiet place 2, free guy etc. Those all got released.

 

Avatar seems quite along the line of some of these. Dune being the closest example. No connection to today's politics or even historical timeline. Simple good Vs evil storyline. I'd say chances are over 50% avatar will get a release.