China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[GOGODanca]

 

[XXR vs XXR]

That's good news. Unfortunately I have no idea how to gauge the Chinese market anymore with the lockdown/restrictions and all of that. 

I feel like $600M+ would happen without restrictions but no clue with them.

[NCsoft]

This is awesome news!

To me, it's more important symbolically that it plays in Chinese theatres even if the film ultimately doesn't reach its box office potential there. At least Chinese fans get to see it in theatre.

Also, due to current unusual circumstances, it'll be very fun to track!

 

 

[ThomasNicole]

So it's confirmed, hopefully it will have a long run since it will face a lot of restrictions. 

 

Still, i think 400M should happen.

[honeycookiez]

Hail King Iger, Hail King Jim 

[charlie Jatinder]

So release is done. Now I don't know what market condition is these days as I stopped looking for it some time ago. 

 

In normal time, would have expected 100M admits for 5-5.5B, which with current ER be around $700-770M.

[hw64]

Gotta say, the real-time data always makes it very interesting to follow a run in China, and after months and months of speculation about "will it or won't it" and the current state of the market, there's nothing much to lose here now that we've got a confirmed date, so this going to be a very fun one to follow.

Edited November 23, 2022 by hw64

[JustLurking]

In current market I'll take anything between 200 and 300M as a win, but I guess I get it if it drops below that and whatnot. I wouldn't want to get locked up in quarantine either.

 

As an aside, I do wonder at what point the government changes strategy. Like, they can't just do this forever...can they?

[Gavin Feng]

I expect long run for Avatar 2. No big release except Wandering Earth 2 in next few months. If China Film Group care their money, they would expand the release time for A2.

[Leviathan]

Aye, as I've predicted months ago, Disney boards already started to lose their sh** when Chapek kept screwing the relationship between Disney and the Chinese film bureau, they will either apologize publicly or seek reconcilement secretly through other ways as we see how Iger's team is negotiating with the bureau now

[Borobudur]

4 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

I expect long run for Avatar 2. No big release except Wandering Earth 2 in next few months. If China Film Group care their money, they would expand the release time for A2.

Is it possible that WE2 would flee CNY in the end due to highly volatile market condition? Also, knowing that only 55% of the cinema are opened now, the rest are closed due to lockdown measure or the market is simply too quiet to open the door? 

 

 

[Gavin Feng]

15 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Is it possible that WE2 would flee CNY in the end due to highly volatile market condition? Also, knowing that only 55% of the cinema are opened now, the rest are closed due to lockdown measure or the market is simply too quiet to open the door? 

 

 

 

Unless big lockdown like the first half year of 2020, I don't think it will be pushed back to another date because no better date for big blockbuster like this. The number of local theaters is probably gonna be smaller and smaller in the next few years. None of these studios could tell if summer / national day will be better. And if we lose WE2 in CNY, more theaters will go bankruptcy before its second date. Both WE2 and Avatar 2 are invested by China Film Group. I bet they will let both of them rule the market in the next few months. (James Cameron met WE1 crew when he came to CHN for Alita. Good relationship. ) 

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

Unless big lockdown like the first half year of 2020, I don't think it will be pushed back to another date because no better date for big blockbuster like this. The number of local theaters is probably gonna be smaller and smaller in the next few years. None of these studios could tell if summer / national day will be better. And if we lose WE2 in CNY, more theaters will go bankruptcy before its second date. Both WE2 and Avatar 2 are invested by China Film Group. I bet they will let both of them rule the market in the next few months. (James Cameron met WE1 crew when he came to CHN for Alita. Good relationship. ) 

But only 55% of the cinema are opened, the % did goes up to >60% during weekend but still far below than that of JWD. Worse of all, the case is still rising in top-tier city like Beijing and some part of Guanzhou and no way they can get the case cool down by 16Dec or 1 month after 16Dec. A2 would be lucky if they can retain this 60% of opening rate. Now is certain that some part of China may never be able to see A2 on big screen even if they want, unless some major re-release down the road.

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

Is it possible that WE2 would flee CNY in the end due to highly volatile market condition? Also, knowing that only 55% of the cinema are opened now, the rest are closed due to lockdown measure or the market is simply too quiet to open the door? 

 

 

I mean, at some point the theaters need to actually receive films if you dont want the entire market to just collapse, if every film flees to safer waters there won't be any water left (pun intended).

[Issac Newton]

One Piece Film Red - 12/1 (Dec 1)

 

[adaros]

Most anticipated on Maoyan

[MG10]

9 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

One Piece Film Red - 12/1 (Dec 1)

 

 

200M WW incoming 🥳

[MG10]

Does anyone know the name of that Chinese site where you can see the percentage of theathers still open? For example I think yesterday it was at 54% and I'm curious to follow it in the next weeks...

[Issac Newton]

11 minutes ago, MG10 said:

Does anyone know the name of that Chinese site where you can see the percentage of theathers still open? For example I think yesterday it was at 54% and I'm curious to follow it in the next weeks...

https://piaofang.taopiaopiao.com/app/alipic/beacon-h5/moviepro/business-map.html

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 hours ago, adaros said:

Most anticipated on Maoyan

 

what was endgame 20 days from release at?