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Shawn Robbins

Weekend Discussion: IM3 @ 175.3m wknd est

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It would be funny if everyone's estimates kept dropping only to realize IM3 made 67 m OD and 170 m OW beating TDKR and destroying THG.

 

Hard to compare 3D movies to 2D these days.

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True but If IM3 is well above IM2 for Friday business why would it do less then IM2 on Friday? 

 

The last time we tried that with DH2 compared to TDK, it was a faceplant for many of us. It was ahead of TDK by such and such percentage so we projected it to $110m. Ended up at $91m.

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The last time we tried that with DH2 compared to TDK, it was a faceplant for many of us. It was ahead of TDK by such and such percentage so we projected it to $110m. Ended up at $91m.

 

I remember that. 

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It would be funny if everyone's estimates kept dropping only to realize IM3 made 67 m OD and 170 m OW beating TDKR and destroying THG.

 

Avengers originally was supposed to make 67M on Friday according to certain sites before the next morning when it said 80M, which is what the almighty Rth reported the night before.

Edited by Jay Beezy
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If people are willing to pay higher prices for a ticket that doesn't count for anything?

 

Yeah but in terms of actual amount of people going to see the movie changes things.

 

For instance, TDKR made 160M without 3D. I think IM3 would need to open at 175M or so to match TDKR's OW attendance. 

Edited by iTz ED
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The last time we tried that with DH2 compared to TDK, it was a faceplant for many of us. It was ahead of TDK by such and such percentage so we projected it to $110m. Ended up at $91m.

http://variety.com/2011/film/news/potter-on-track-for-biggest-opening-of-all-time-1118039999/

 

Man, as great as the $91m OD was... still a huge come down from when it was looking like it'd break $100m.

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If people are willing to pay higher prices for a ticket that doesn't count for anything?

 

I know there is two schools on this topic but for me :

 

tickets> dollars

 

Dollars don't see movies, people do.

 

You could imagine a dystopian society where a very rich rulling class pay their ticket 10 000 dollars, you would still have 150m-200 OW but just a few thousand people who would have seen the movie.

 

Is this really what we want ? Fewer people at the movies but wealthier ones ?

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Just to show the flaw in the "percentage ahead of" extrapolation, he is saying IM3 is running 279% ahead of IM1's matinees. If you extrapolate that to the entire day, it would be $133m. No way in hell that happens.

 

I would tend to think since we know it came up 16.5% lower than Avengers for midnight/previews, the fact that he says it's running 20% behind Avengers matinees is probably a better indicator than comparing with the first two Iron Man movies. We have hard numbers (midnight/preview grosses) to back up the Avengers comparison.

 

But if it does finish 46% ahead of IM2's opening day gross, that would be $75m. Based on the fact that it was supposedly running 20% behind The Avengers as of 5 PM Central, it would need to beat the Avengers gross for the rest of the day by around 4.5% in order to reach $75m for the day.

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DH2's opening day was glorious. Such a fun weekend that was.

 

Movies are not the same w/o HP. It just isn`t that good. The anticipation, the meltdowns, HP time was the most epic time. I miss HP so much.

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Movies are not the same w/o HP. It just isn`t that good. The anticipation, the meltdowns, HP time was the most epic time. I miss HP so much.

The trailers. Oh the trailers. The reactions when they first came out were always the best. 

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Movies are not the same w/o HP. It just isn`t that good. The anticipation, the meltdowns, HP time was the most epic time. I miss HP so much.

 

Don't worry Potter will be rebooted in 5 years :rofl:

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I really wouldn't be surprised if IM3 explodes tomorrow and tops 60M for Sat (assuming 67M is the real estimate).  Hoping for mid 50's though....DH2 just looks too sexy at #2....and it musn't drop to third place until Catching Fire.

Edited by Mr Potter
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Do you see it holding worst or better?

 

 

It's May.  It'll drop a minimum of 25%, more likely in the low 30's.

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Right now I'm watching the shittest movie version of Hamlet there is. I don't know why. It's 1am and I should probably sleep or something. But I'm gonna have a shitload of this thread to read when I wake up.

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