Wednesday #'s (IM3 - 8.1M) (let the meltdown begin) 200M in 6 days!

[redfirebird2008]

Comparing to IM1 (just to annoy Baumer)

 

IM1's first Wednesday was 22% of its first Sunday gross. IM3's Wednesday is 19% of its first Sunday gross. That means IM1 is holding up 16% better relative to its Sunday number. It dropped 48% on its second weekend. 16% worse than that would be a 55.7% drop. That would be a $77m weekend for IM3.

[baumer]

IM3 had a worse Monday drop than Avengers and Thor by a full 5-7% so I don't think we're going to see an increase as low as 130%. 

 

Provided the day up, day down roller coaster continues-

 

7.7m Thursday (-5%) 

18.5m Friday (140%) 

30.7m Saturday (66%) 

21.5m Sunday (-30%) 

 

70.7m weekend 

 

 

So you are giving it a bigger jump on Friday than Thor but the same Saturday increase? 

 

How convenient.

[baumer]

Comparing to IM1 (just to annoy Baumer)

 

IM1's first Wednesday was 22% of its first Sunday gross. IM3's Wednesday is 19% of its first Sunday gross. That means IM1 is holding up 16% better relative to its Sunday number. It dropped 48% on its second weekend. 16% worse than that would be a 55.7% drop. That would be a $77m weekend for IM3.

 

And if it makes 77 mill second weekend I'd be shocked.  The WOM is not that strong.

[Sam]

Comparing to IM1 (just to annoy Baumer)

 

IM1's first Wednesday was 22% of its first Sunday gross. IM3's Wednesday is 19% of its first Sunday gross. That means IM1 is holding up 16% better relative to its Sunday number. It dropped 48% on its second weekend. 16% worse than that would be a 55.7% drop. That would be a $77m weekend for IM3.

I like how you do your math just to annoy Baumer     

[RichWS]

So you are giving it a bigger jump on Friday than Thor but the same Saturday increase? 

 

How convenient.

 

You're too hooked on the idea of it following exact models of other movies. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't.

[Lordmandeep]

For game reasons I want it to get as close to 360 as possible

 

 

 

As of this moment its locked for 380 + million.

 

I think one key thing to remember is that it will likely make well over 100  million after its 2nd weekend as well.

 

Think people forget IM2 made 100 million more and it had a 60% 2nd weekend and a 50% 3rd weekend fall. That is also remember IM2 has much lower numbers then IM3 as well over the 2nd and 3rd weekend.

 

So whatever it makes by Sunday, you can add 100 million and thats the min gross you can imagine.

[redfirebird2008]

And if it makes 77 mill second weekend I'd be shocked.  The WOM is not that strong.

 

I know you'd be shocked. That's why I ran the numbers.

[Heretic]

I hope this comes back and slaps us in the face with a 75m+ 2nd weekend, like it did on OD going from 58 to 68m.

[kayumanggi]

You're too hooked on the idea of it following exact models of other movies. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't.

 

Well that's better than predicting numbers that one personally wants.

Edited May 9, 2013 by kayumanggi

[baumer]

You're too hooked on the idea of it following exact models of other movies. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't.

 

I agree.  But if you aren't using a film to model it after, you are just picking arbitrary numbers.

 

I could just as easily say it will go up by 110% on Friday, 139% Saturday and drop 35% Sunday.  Why not?

[Hatebox]

If it is playing like a family movie (though Christ knows why that's happening given the film's content) then a decent weekend drop wouldn't surprise me at all.

[druv10]

I know you'd be shocked. That's why I ran the numbers.

 

 

lol, I'm absolutely loving your numbers.     

[Gopher]

So you are giving it a bigger jump on Friday than Thor but the same Saturday increase? 

 

How convenient.

 

If by bigger you mean 10% higher than Thor's and 5% higher than Avengers', sure. I think that's reasonable. 

 

I'm giving it a big Saturday bump because it increased 20% last Saturday. Way more than what Thor or Avengers did. 

 

But Rich is right, aren't we all talking out of our asses, baum? 

[keysersoze123]

400M is a lock. But 450M will most probably not happen. But we can say for sure on saturday night.

[baumer]

If by bigger you mean 10% higher than Thor's and 5% higher than Avengers', sure. I think that's reasonable. 

 

I'm giving it a big Saturday bump because it increased 20% last Saturday. Way more than what Thor or Avengers did. 

 

But Rich is right, aren't we all talking out of our asses, baum? 

 

Ok, fair enough, your numbers are not unreasonable, I just don't agree with them.  But then again, I've really been cold lately predicting numbers, so you will probably be right.

[RichWS]

Well that's better than predicting numbers that one personally wants.

 

One personally wants? What does that mean? How are Gopher's numbers unreasonable? Just under 20M Friday, just over 30M Saturday because of families, 30% Sunday drop.

[Sam]

Rth should have come yesterday to give us numbers. He would have so much fun then 

[CoolioD1]

This is devastating. I can't imagine how they must be feeling at Marvel Studios.

 

[redfirebird2008]

400M is a lock. But 450M will most probably not happen. But we can say for sure on saturday night.

 

No we can't say for sure Saturday night. We have no idea how the upcoming competition will affect it. It could get hammered or it could hold up well in the coming weeks.

[Lordmandeep]

Just to be saying guys I was saying 70 million 2nd weekend and thats based of a 7.8 million Thursday...

 

So nothing much changes for me.