Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny | June 30 2023 | Very mixed reviews out of Cannes

[Liiviig 1998]

380m off a 111m ow is way to optimistic . 3.42* legs for a fifth film in the franchise is not feasible IMO.

 

Something like 330-340m at best off

 that kind of weekend.(Jurassic world legs) and that if it's lucky to get good WOM which I find highly unlikely.

 

Crystal skull( B CS) proves this franchise is not critic proof . Can't really be compared to jurrassic movies even JWD still managed to get an A CS. 

 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

I am surprised by that projection. Competition is brutal in July and it will lose PLF very quickly. But weekdays will be strong and we have to wait for how WOM will be. 

 

For now even the OW looks distant looking at the presales. 

[George Parr]

11 hours ago, Bob Train said:

How is this critic proof? We've never gotten and Indy film with poor reviews before? Even KOTCS had roughly 80% RT. Nothing in the franchise has ever indicated that it's in the vein of F&F or Jurassic World.

I'm pretty sure Temple of Doom didn't have a particularly good reception from the critics at its time. It's only more recent reviews that pushed it upwards again to where it stands now. Similarly to how Empire strikes back and Return of the Jedi didn't get quite the positive reception they have now at the time of their respective releases.

 

Who knows where Dial of Destiny will end up at. Right now it's at 50% with 46 reviews at RT. That's not a ton of reviews. Depending on which sort of critics are left, it could very well get back up into the 60s even with just decent reviews. That's not particularly good, but not exactly poor either.

[scytheavatar]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am surprised by that projection. Competition is brutal in July and it will lose PLF very quickly. But weekdays will be strong and we have to wait for how WOM will be. 

 

For now even the OW looks distant looking at the presales. 

 

The fact that Paramount moved MI7 up 2 days was telling....... they smell blood in the water and think Indy V's PLF are there for them to snack on. 

[George Parr]

On 5/31/2023 at 9:48 PM, dudalb said:

I think a lot of people here just have it in for this film for some reason.

I never really understood why people would root against a movie. I mean, what is the point of that?

It just seems to petty and immature, especially when you haven't even seen it yet.

 

If I'm interested in a movie I might go and watch it, if I'm not, I won't. If I do happen to watch it, I will judge after I have seen it whether I like it or not. I might comment on that, or state what I liked or disliked, but that's basically the end of it. I would never think about slamming a movie before I have seen it, or wish it to fail if I disliked it. I mean, why would I? What is there to be gained by wishing for something to fail?

it seems like something someone who is insecure about himself might do. Someone who needs to lift himself up by putting others or other things down. Similarly to how certain elites push their followers to look down on those who are even worse off, so that they don't realize that any issues they might have tend to come from above, not below.

 

Nothing wrong with disliking a movie. That wouldn't make me root gainst it though. After all, the movie is done, nothing is going to change about it, nor is my life in any way impacted by the movie succeeding or not, So why waste time attacking something I don't like? I'd much rather do something I actually enjoy.

Edited June 3, 2023 by George Parr

[Liiviig 1998]

39 minutes ago, George Parr said:

I'm pretty sure Temple of Doom didn't have a particularly good reception from the critics at its time. It's only more recent reviews that pushed it upwards again to where it stands now. Similarly to how Empire strikes back and Return of the Jedi didn't get quite the positive reception they have now at the time of their respective releases.

 

Who knows where Dial of Destiny will end up at. Right now it's at 50% with 46 reviews at RT. That's not a ton of reviews. Depending on which sort of critics are left, it could very well get back up into the 60s even with just decent reviews. That's not particularly good, but not exactly poor either.

76% Rt with a 7.4/10 average. 

 

ESB and Rotj weren't rotten or as low 60s  at respective releases either. ESB was always greatly recieved it's just the ending like Infinity war put off some at the time.

 

EVen KOTCS was nowhere near 60s or rotten either and yeah that was well..

 

its not jumping from 5.8/10  avg to 7/10 avg.

 

critically this will be the lowest no doubt .

 

sure some may want it to fail but facts are facts. That Rt score ain't good one bit and ain't gonna change much either.

 

it's now all about what the audience says.

 

 

[George Parr]

28 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

76% Rt with a 7.4/10 average. 

 

ESB and Rotj weren't rotten or as low 60s  at respective releases either. ESB was always greatly recieved it's just the ending like Infinity war put off some at the time.

 

EVen KOTCS was nowhere near 60s or rotten either and yeah that was well..

 

its not jumping from 5.8/10  avg to 7/10 avg.

 

critically this will be the lowest no doubt .

 

sure some may want it to fail but facts are facts. That Rt score ain't good one bit and ain't gonna change much either.

 

it's now all about what the audience says.

 

 

No, that is its score now, it wasn't remotely close to that back then. As I said, it was lifted up by relatively recent reviews, just like the other movies I listed. And no, Empire strikes Back did not have great reviews when it came out. It had a great audience reception, but not great reviews. Those only came later, which is exactly what I mentioned. You can't use modern reviews to judge the perception a movie had at the time of its release.

 

Nowhere did I say that KOTCS was near the 60s, or that Dial of Destiny would jump to a 7/10 average, or that it won't be the critically lowest (now, not at the time of release). I really don't know why you bothered to write any of that, because none of it has much to do with the post I wrote.

 

The only thing one can actually say right now about Dial of Destiny, is that it certainly won't be lifted by great reviews. The best it could probably hope for, is an average that is decent/fine, with a better shot at either lackluster or okayish.

[scytheavatar]

3 hours ago, George Parr said:

I never really understood why people would root against a movie. I mean, what is the point of that?

It just seems to petty and immature, especially when you haven't even seen it yet.

 

If I'm interested in a movie I might go and watch it, if I'm not, I won't. If I do happen to watch it, I will judge after I have seen it whether I like it or not. I might comment on that, or state what I liked or disliked, but that's basically the end of it. I would never think about slamming a movie before I have seen it, or wish it to fail if I disliked it. I mean, why would I? What is there to be gained by wishing for something to fail?

it seems like something someone who is insecure about himself might do. Someone who needs to lift himself up by putting others or other things down. Similarly to how certain elites push their followers to look down on those who are even worse off, so that they don't realize that any issues they might have tend to come from above, not below.

 

Nothing wrong with disliking a movie. That wouldn't make me root gainst it though. After all, the movie is done, nothing is going to change about it, nor is my life in any way impacted by the movie succeeding or not, So why waste time attacking something I don't like? I'd much rather do something I actually enjoy.

 

I don't need to watch Indy V to know that it's the dumbest fucking idea ever........ it was already too late to make an Indy film way back in Indy IV and now they want to make another Indy film when Ford is older? This whole movie is an exercise in hubris and Hollywood thinking they are entitled to blockbusters without the foundation for one. Lucasfilm trying to make another Rey film instead of starting from a blank slate is another good example of hubris. This is why I have no sympathy for any higher ups involved in the production of these movies, I am going to laugh at them and say they fucking deserved it when these movies flop/bomb. 

[Cheebs86]

2 hours ago, scytheavatar said:

Lucasfilm trying to make another Rey film instead of starting from a blank slate is another good example of hubris. This is why I have no sympathy for any higher ups involved in the production of these movies, I am going to laugh at them and say they fucking deserved it when these movies flop/bomb. 

This just shows me out incredibly out of touch you are.

I have been to galaxy's edge 4 times in the past 2 years....little kids especially little girls LOOOOOOVE Rey. They flock to her and dress as Rey all over the parks.

 

Rey is *easily* the most cosplayed character at the last few Star Wars Celebrations too. Again, especially with younger girls.

 

Adult nerds keep making the same mistake over and over thinking Star Wars is about them. But it's not. Rey is an very popular with the actual demographics that are the future of Star Wars fandom.

 

Making Rey the lead of the post-TROS movie was the safest and most logical choice they could have made.

Edited June 3, 2023 by Cheebs86

[Eric is Anxious]

Moderation

 

Not the Star Wars thread.

[WittyUsername]

I don’t see how this can expect to succeed without strong reviews and good word of mouth. 

[Bob Train]

No Indy film has ever had bad reviews. They've all been above 75 on RT.

[Saul Goodman]

Still think this could surprise a bit if the action/adventure part delivers. Lot of zoomers I know are catching up with the franchise now, thanks Disney+.

[Firepower]

Another 3/5 added. I'm more concerned that nobody loved it so far than overall mixed reception at this point, most positive reviews so far are barely positive.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Firepower

[JustLurking]

I think that BOP range will go down, I can see sub 81 more easily than 111 for sure atm.

[Boxx93]

Lucasfilm really should have gone the reboot route with Indy. That would have allowed more real stunts and less CGI looking chases.

 

After seeing Nightmare Alley, I'm 100% convinced that Bradley Cooper could have been an excellent Indiana Jones.

Edited June 4, 2023 by Boxx93

[Maggie]

We should get tracking numbers from deadline this week, right?

[screambaby]

2 hours ago, Maggie said:

We should get tracking numbers from deadline this week, right?

I'm betting they won't be pretty

[von Kenni]

Regarding Indy 5's breakeven point, I'll have it somewhere around $700m WW with a quick and dirty analysis:

 

Revenue

 

BO $290m DOM *0.55 + $410m OS *0.40 = $324m

TV & streaming rights $150m

Home Entertainment $140m (Indy has had stellar HE sales in the past)

Merch & misc $25m

 

Total $639m

 

Costs

 

Production budget $300m

Marketing $150m

Participation & Residues $60m

Manufacturing (DVD, BR, etc.) $35m

Home Entertainment marketing $20m

Studio overhead $25m

Prints $15m

Capital & finance costs $35m (partly accounting gimmick to get everything present-day value in addition to interest-related costs)

 

Total $640m

 

Sounds like a lot but an Indy movie shouldn't cost $300m to make. Even with bloated cast or other key people costs it should be $75m or $100m lower and you would end up $100-150m lower breakeven point, if not even lower.

 

As a side note, I wonder what's the net result of alienating many of the old Indy fans such as myself with The Crystal Skull (saw it in theaters, not planning to see this) who are already likely to not go see it until they see the reviews (bad) and hear the WOM (to be seen) AND new people that might have been introduced to Indy through Disney+ or other ways that were mentioned here.

[poweranimals]

On 6/3/2023 at 9:31 PM, Bob Train said:

No Indy film has ever had bad reviews. They've all been above 75 on RT.

Except Dial of Destiny.