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Shawn Robbins

Superbowl Weekend Numbers (RTH updated Sun#s pg 14)

By Shawn Robbins, in Numbers and Data

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cookie Global Phenomenon

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Posted
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But still, it's not like that isn't a giant hit.

But Sunday would still post bigger numbers than Friday if a 150%+ increase occurs on Saturday (7.5m) followed by a 55% drop on Sunday (3.4m), so 13m weekend is achievable if the Friday estimate stays.

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BadAtGender Global Phenomenon

BadAtGender

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But Sunday would still post bigger numbers than Friday if a 150%+ increase occurs on Saturday (7.5m) followed by a 55% drop on Sunday (3.4m), so 13m weekend is achievable if the Friday estimate stays.

 

I don't know if a 150% jump on Saturday is likely. Perhaps a bit bigger than the 100-110% it's been getting over the past couple of weeks, but I see something more like: Fri: 3, Sat: 6.75 (+125%), Sun: 3.1 (-54%). It may just miss 13.

 

Even so any weekend above 10 right now is absolutely amazing.

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Mango Blockbuster

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With the clear broadened audience it has had through the second half of its run, I wouldn't be surprised if Frozen dips a bit more than your average family film on Superbowl Sunday. The last time I saw it the audience was mostly college students.

 

I mean of course it probably won't be as harsh as stuff like TAM, RA, or TLS but probably more than Nut Job. If this number holds up though it might actually be enough to compensate though. 

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spazz91 Sleeper Hit

spazz91

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With the clear broadened audience it has had through the second half of its run, I wouldn't be surprised if Frozen dips a bit more than your average family film on Superbowl Sunday. The last time I saw it the audience was mostly college students.

 

I mean of course it probably won't be as harsh as stuff like TAM, RA, or TLS but probably more than Nut Job. If this number holds up though it might actually be enough to compensate though. 

demographic might sway back towards families this weekend with the sing-along version.

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spizzer Box Office Gold

spizzer

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With the clear broadened audience it has had through the second half of its run, I wouldn't be surprised if Frozen dips a bit more than your average family film on Superbowl Sunday. The last time I saw it the audience was mostly college students.I mean of course it probably won't be as harsh as stuff like TAM, RA, or TLS but probably more than Nut Job. If this number holds up though it might actually be enough to compensate though.

I would agree except for the fact that Disney has retargeted younger audiences with this sing along expansion.
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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

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Here's my calculation for Frozen:

 

If Friday drop was like Tangled and there was no expansion, it would have fallen 22.7% from last Friday giving it 1.55m

So out of 3m, about 1.55m is from the normal run and 1.45m is from the expansion.

 

The normal run would behave like 1.55 + 3.44(120%) + 1.53(-55%) = 6.53m

The expansion i think will be like 1.45 + 2.68(85%) + 1.2(-55%) = 5.33m

 

So a weekend total of 6.53 + 5.33 = 11.86m

 

EDIT: Variety reports a 2.45m Friday, which according to the same calc would give a 9.7m weekend.

Edited by a2knet
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