Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[AniNate]

24 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Avatar is about imperialism. It wouldn't shock me if the CCP banned it because of their dealings with Africa.

Hah, they would've banned the original from the outset if they were concerned about that. COVID shutdowns are far more of a potential release threat than any thematic content. They just see it as thumbing its nose at white English speaking imperialists.

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by AniNate

[lorddemaxus]

48 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Avatar is about imperialism. It wouldn't shock me if the CCP banned it because of their dealings with Africa.

Yes, the CCP will think that Avatar is an attack on them. That's why they allowed a re-release a year ago.

Edited May 4, 2022 by lorddemaxus

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, CloneWars said:

$1 Billion Domestic? Does anyone really believe that's possible?

 

75 million tickets (what 1 did) with an atp of 14 (which id say is reasonable come december for avatar 2) gets you over a billion 

[JustLurking]

Movie going habits are not the same though, 75M tickets today would be a harder challenge than what 1 did.

[interiorgatordecorator]

 

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

OS-C Total likely to be affected because of Europe. It will roughly match Avatar's performance in some regions like France, Germany, Spain &The Nordics. Though, I expect UK to be close by. Other region like South America, Middle East, Asia will see a good increase from former

 

So, I think __ are possible

$1000M DOM ✅

$1000M CHN ✅

$2000M OS-C ❌

 

Avatar os-c exchange rate corrected and adjusted for inflation is probably around 2100m, add market inflation to that and a lot more 3d screens (only around 50-55% of avatar 1 tickets sales were in 3d, mostly due to lack of 3d screens) and id say 2000m osc-china is more likely than 1000m domestic and if the latter happens (meaning admits drop very little) the first one (2000m) definitely does 

[interiorgatordecorator]

25 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Movie going habits are not the same though, 75M tickets today would be a harder challenge than what 1 did.

 

yer right, but it's possible that that 14 ATP is a bit too low depending on what happens with imax and 3D (both more widespread than in 2009) and inflation, so infinity war (lower than nwh) admits (or even JW in an extreme scenario) can be enough a billion domestic

Edited May 4, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Avatar os-c exchange rate corrected and adjusted for inflation is probably around 2100m,

$1.43B at 2019 rates and prices. Inflation will put it may be 10% higher but exchange rate today are bit worse than 2019.

Asian and LATAM markets would grow but Europe may fall a bit in admits. I guess $1.5-1.75B is more likely OS-C.

[interiorgatordecorator]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

$1.43B at 2019 rates and prices. Inflation will put it may be 10% higher but exchange rate today are bit worse than 2019.

Asian and LATAM markets would grow but Europe may fall a bit in admits. I guess $1.5-1.75B is more likely OS-C.

Isn't the exchange rate magic number around 350 million?

So of 2090 subtract 350 and then 260 form china, giving you 1480 in 09

From the on around 20% inflation till the end of 2019, and from then one 15-20% for covid inflation, giving you a number in 2-2.1 billion range

Meaning that in 2019 we were already at 1.75, and from the on covid inflation gets you over 2 billion

Most exchange rates seem just a tiny bit worse than in 2019, and were pretty much the same as in 2019 just 2 months ago, 

 

This of course done with usa inflation, but I doubt doing it country per country is enough to explain a 400 million difference

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[eddyxx]

So has anyone heard any word whether Jim has been able to block Disney’s 45 day window?

[CloneWars]

12 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

So has anyone heard any word whether Jim has been able to block Disney’s 45 day window?

Isn't the window a case by case basis and can be extended if a film does really well?

[dignam]

1 hour ago, eddyxx said:

So has anyone heard any word whether Jim has been able to block Disney’s 45 day window?

 

I´m pretty sure james cameron transfered some of the paragraphs from his contract with fox over to disney. And like clonewars said, if avatar does really well, i´m pretty sure they will extended the window.

[SchumacherFTW]

6 minutes ago, dignam said:

 

I´m pretty sure james cameron transfered some of the paragraphs from his contract with fox over to disney. And like clonewars said, if avatar does really well, i´m pretty sure they will extended the window.

Disney will just make the decision that makes them the most money. What that is will be revealed in due course

[Lucas]

The highly anticipated and carefully curated Avatar 2 footage in front of Doctor Strange 2 at the screening I'm at - projected in the wrong dimensions for the screen. Very exciting.

 

The footage is, I dunno? It looks like a movie at least?

[grey ghost]

6 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Yes, the CCP will think that Avatar is an attack on them. That's why they allowed a re-release a year ago.

 

Well they seem to be getting more strict as years go by.

 

Probably because they want Chinese people to embrace local films over Hollywood stuff.

[TomCruiseTop]

6 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Inflation will put it may be 10% higher

Are you trolling? You think inflation from 2019 to now is 10%?

 

4 hours ago, dignam said:

I´m pretty sure james cameron transfered some of the paragraphs from his contract with fox over to disney. And like clonewars said, if avatar does really well, i´m pretty sure they will extended the window.

One of the distributors I spoke to at CinemaCon even speculated that Ant-Man being pushed to Feb was them sacrificing it to Avatar should we see a repeat of the original.

 

3 hours ago, Lucas said:

The footage is, I dunno? It looks like a movie at least?

Do you wear glasses? Serious question - the people who I heard who didn't like the footage at CC were glasses wearers.

 

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

Probably because they want Chinese people to embrace local films over Hollywood stuff.

Avatar is ingrained in Chinese culture, as people have said, they have the mountains and Jim has sway enough that it's a NZ production as much as a Hollywood one in the eyes of the CCP.

[charlie Jatinder]

14 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Are you trolling? You think inflation from 2019 to now is 10%?

Not really. Yes in many markets it is more than 10%, some there is none at all e.g. big 4 of Europe ATP of Endgame and NWH was same, lower for NWH in Germany.

 

South East Asia has no inflation.

 

Big inflation came in Korea, Mexico among major markets. 

 

Need to check all of them for an actual numbers, that's why said may be 10%. It could be lower or higher.

Edited May 4, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Lucas]

11 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Do you wear glasses? Serious question - the people who I heard who didn't like the footage at CC were glasses wearers.

Nah I don't wear glasses. I can't say I disliked the footage, it just didn't stand out - especially not compared to what I saw over a decade ago, it just looks a little more refined, CG-wise. But as I said, the theater didn't bother to make the image match the size of the screen, and they hadn't shut the lights off completely yet (it was in that middle area as people were still entering the screening). No one looked particularly interested in it, or prepared for it. I'm hoping there's way more to the movie than what I saw.

[TomCruiseTop]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not really. Yes in many markets it is more than 10%, some there is none at all e.g. big 4 of Europe ATP of Endgame and NWH was same, lower for NWH in Germany.

 

South East Asia has no inflation.

 

Big inflation came in Korea, Mexico among major markets. 

 

Need to check all of them for an actual numbers, that's why said may be 10%. It could be lower or higher.

Quoting this for posterity for whenever anyone claims you know what you're talking about. Cheers.

 

Those inflation  numbers you just quoted are literally so far off I can't even speak to it. The actual inflation rate is probably closer to 30 than it is to 10 for USD. Even in India and SEA inflation is kicking in. To say 'no inflation' is... I don't even know what to say.

[TomCruiseTop]

6 minutes ago, Lucas said:

Nah I don't wear glasses. I can't say I disliked the footage, it just didn't stand out - especially not compared to what I saw over a decade ago, it just looks a little more refined, CG-wise. But as I said, the theater didn't bother to make the image match the size of the screen, and they hadn't shut the lights off completely yet (it was in that middle area as people were still entering the screening). No one looked particularly interested in it, or prepared for it. I'm hoping there's way more to the movie than what I saw.

Interesting, I guess it's not for everyone, did you at least think the 3D was good?

[Lucas]

3 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Interesting, I guess it's not for everyone, did you at least think the 3D was good?

That's where things can definitely differ because this was not a 3D showing, they just played the footage like any other 2D film. I don't think it'll win over many uninitiated who just casually see the footage at a regular showing.