Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[WittyUsername]

33 minutes ago, Nero said:

Why not? It wasn't going to outgross the first one anyway. 

Even if it doesn’t top the original, those would still be disappointing results.

[adaros]

50 minutes ago, Bruce said:

He is just too....

He is just too.... robust

[XXR vs XXR]

Tickets go on sale Monday and I'm very curious to see what the initial demand looks like. I'm guessing it'll be somewhere between JWD and The Batman. As of today I'm still sticking with roughly the following numbers...

$160M DOM OW 

$675M DOM Total 
$1100 - 1400M OS-C-R

$700-900M China (assuming no COVID restrictions)

[Ozymandias]

3 hours ago, adaros said:

3 HR 12 MIN | PG13

 

[adaros]

1 minute ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

$700-900M China (assuming no COVID restrictions)

Covid restrictions are one thing but Chinese gov that can drop movie after few weeks of screentime to not counter their local biggest movies BO is another thing. Ofc assuming it will be released there at all

 

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, adaros said:

Covid restrictions are one thing but Chinese gov that can drop movie after few weeks of screentime to not counter their local biggest movies BO is another thing. Ofc assuming it will be released there at all

 

I'm not worried about that. China can pump 95% of a run into 2-3 weeks. I agree China could artificially dump it early to prevent it from passing TBLC2 but that still leaves room up to $900M if it has the demand. 

[Eric S'ennui]

5 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

Wynaut?

[hw64]

10 minutes ago, Nero said:

That won't matter.

 

I had to laugh at this response. What do you mean "that won't matter"? Avatar 2 will have around 40% higher ticket prices than Avatar domestically, and this is an extremely significant factor in detemining box office gross that the other sequels you cite simply did not have over their predecessors. If Avatar 2 sells around 70% of the tickets as Avatar, it will make around the same amount in dollar gross; if it sells the same amount of tickets, it will make 40% more. These are unavoidable facts.

 

Your reply is essentially the intellectual equivalent of putting your fingers in your ears and saying 'lalalala I can't hear you!!!'

[Alexdube]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I don't think that's really applicable here.  T1 > T2 was a huge, revelatory step forward in VFX.   

 

Avatar was so far ahead of the game it still looks amazing today.  Not sure where it can go from already damn near perfect.

There are always ways to push visuals. Many people already made the mistake of assuming the first Avatar wasn't going to impress because "everything had already been done with CG"

 

I'm just saying you have to keep an open mind on these things, especially since it's Cameron and his goal is always to push the envelope in terms of visual. And he has not waited 13 years to make the same movie again.

 

Already from what I have seen in the preview scene with the re-release, and from the comments I've read on it, there is still plenty of room left to surprise and wow the audience. 

Edited November 18, 2022 by Alexdube

[Lothar]

3 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

I don't think they'll be happy with this result....

 

Wow Wow great prediction. This is exactly what I want. I request @IronJimbo to increase his initial limit by at least 500mil to 1b

OD with 175mil looks great with OW 475+

 

Initially I thought this will do around 1b to 1.2 but now I'm increasing my prediction.

[ThomasNicole]

I mean i can see the OW being 135M, but it's very hard seeing just a 3.5x from that during holidays (unless the WOM is awful and the movie sucks, which tbh would be surprising).

 

It have no reason to be super frontloaded to begin with it, this is no SW / Marvel, there won't be any competition beyond Puss In Boots for weeks, and if the OW ended up being kinda soft it will be even easier to get a better multiplier.

 

I can see 135M with 550-600M finish (4.0 - 4.5x). 

 

I think it will be a bit higher tho, around 160M OW and the 720M higher end prediction as totals. Dropping in admissions is fair and i'm expecting that, but the way higher ticket prices will compensate. 

 

Overseas the same thing, and from what we know the China releases is pretty much locked and will be announced in a few days. 

 

The movie just need to be well received and +2B will happen.

Edited November 18, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I still have a sinking feeling this is going to vastly underperform compared to the original. The mediocre weekdays of Wakanda Forever so far are showing us that catching lightning in a bottle again is damn near impossible. And the first Avatar is very much lightning in a bottle. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers are a lot closer to Box Office Pro's projection than most think.

[interiorgatordecorator]

11 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I still have a sinking feeling this is going to vastly underperform compared to the original. The mediocre weekdays of Wakanda Forever so far are showing us that catching lightning in a bottle again is damn near impossible. And the first Avatar is very much lightning in a bottle. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers are a lot closer to Box Office Pro's projection than most think.

 

id be a bit dissapointed, but not sad, over a 720 million domestic total

[Nero]

43 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

I had to laugh at this response. What do you mean "that won't matter"? Avatar 2 will have around 40% higher ticket prices than Avatar domestically, and this is an extremely significant factor in detemining box office gross that the other sequels you cite simply did not have over their predecessors. If Avatar 2 sells around 70% of the tickets as Avatar, it will make around the same amount in dollar gross; if it sells the same amount of tickets, it will make 40% more. These are unavoidable facts.

 

Your reply is essentially the intellectual equivalent of putting your fingers in your ears and saying 'lalalala I can't hear you!!!'

Just because ticket prices have increased doesn't automatically guarantee that it'll outgross more than previous one. Look at recent MCU movies couldn't cross 200 mark on OW even with such high ticket prices. 

[Nero]

37 minutes ago, Lothar said:

Wow Wow great prediction. This is exactly what I want. I request @IronJimbo to increase his initial limit by at least 500mil to 1b

OD with 175mil looks great with OW 475+

 

Initially I thought this will do around 1b to 1.2 but now I'm increasing my prediction.

Yeah this will do atleast 1.5B domestic and 5B WW anything less is flop (:

[Ozymandias]

21 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I still have a sinking feeling this is going to vastly underperform compared to the original. The mediocre weekdays of Wakanda Forever so far are showing us that catching lightning in a bottle again is damn near impossible. And the first Avatar is very much lightning in a bottle. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers are a lot closer to Box Office Pro's projection than most think.

 

Avatar 2 making 450m would probably be the best forum content since John Carter & The Avenger's smoking TDKR in 2012. 

 

Its not gonna happen though, its a big spectacle movie and I think some weirdos are gonna get super depressed again that Cameron's computer world isn't real and go see it again 15 times.

[TwoMisfits]

5 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

you can point to anyone know that knew audiences would love Top Gun Maverick as much as they did?
 

 

If you see the movie - that helps:).  I predicted TGM would win the year after I saw it OW...but then again, I haven't see Avatar 2, so maybe it will equally wow.

 

When you saw Top Gun 2, you just knew it would draw in everyone...it just worked on every level.  It was everything people were going to want that movie to be for everyone - GA and uber fans, young and old, etc.  Now, it wasn't the best movie ever done, but it was the best drawing movie done, at least this year so far.

 

It was the same for Spidey - once you saw it, you knew.  

 

My worry for Avatar is that it will wow the fans, but miss some of those other categories of folks and just not make up enough to pass Top Gun 2 this year - that it's almost too good a movie that will end up boring those who don't care (hi, my kid:)...

Edited November 18, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, Nero said:

Just because ticket prices have increased doesn't automatically guarantee that it'll outgross more than previous one. Look at recent MCU movies couldn't cross 200 mark on OW even with such high ticket prices. 

Marvel is in a troubled period with excess of projects dropping nearly at the same time and most of them not well received. 

 

22 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I still have a sinking feeling this is going to vastly underperform compared to the original. The mediocre weekdays of Wakanda Forever so far are showing us that catching lightning in a bottle again is damn near impossible. And the first Avatar is very much lightning in a bottle. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual numbers are a lot closer to Box Office Pro's projection than most think.

I get the feeling but i think WF is such a distinct case. The movie have one of the most troubled productions in recent history, lost it's beloved lead and needed to change it's story to deal with that instead of just being a regular sequel. 

 

I think it would do better if it's a more straightforward story with the actual Black Panther that everyone loved. 

[Maggie]

Those projections are too low imo. A2 will make at least 800M. This movie will open high enough and have great legs. This is not some fan movie like Marvel, Avatar 2 will appeal to the general audience who want to be mesmerized by what they see on screen. Legs will be over 4 comfortably

Edited November 18, 2022 by Maggie

[hw64]

19 minutes ago, Nero said:

Just because ticket prices have increased doesn't automatically guarantee that it'll outgross more than previous one. Look at recent MCU movies couldn't cross 200 mark on OW even with such high ticket prices. 

 

Yes, correct, but it makes it significantly easier. This is my point.